Thread by @_Checkmatey_

1/ I am studying #Decred in the context of #Bitcoin in the early days.

I aim to assess the following:
- Compare $DCR and $BTC supply characteristics
- Performance of #DCR compared to young #BTC
- Decred unforgeable costliness
- Mathematical rigor for $DCR S2F model

Prelim ideas

2/ #Decred launched in Aug 2016 (~ BTC block 33600).

Given similar supply curve, I have offset $DCR performance by 33,600 BTC blocks and plotted as if #Decred launched side by side with #Bitcoin.

Unsurprisingly, #Decred behaves much like a 'smooth' #Bitcoin without halvings.

3/ Plan B established the invaluable and statistically valid S2F model for $BTC.

Key difference between scarcity of $DCR and $BTC is #Bitcoin immaculate conception, time alive (network effect) and block reward distribution.

21Million, predefined schedule and S2F path are equal.

4/ Thus my starting point (until research and observed data yield otherwise) is to assume that #Decred should conform to #Bitcoin S2F model.

Specifically the Realised Price of #Bitcoin has followed Plan Bs S2F model, accurately catching the realised price floors of bear markets

5/
If #Decred does NOT conform to this S2F model, perhaps $DCR is not developing a valid monetary premium and may be discounted against $BTC.

However, if $DCR DOES perform, especially relative to $BTC in the early days (apples to apples), this becomes a convincing argument.

6/ Therefore I have plotted the following:

#Bitcoin S2F estimate, Realised Price and Spot Price
#Decred S2F estimate, Realised Price and Spot Price

Both are plotted against Bitcoin block height (assuming Decred launched on the same day as Bitcoin.

The chart is below

7/ What I am seeing aligns with my article on monetary premiums.

#Decred is not only performing similar to #Bitcoin in the early days.

It is outperforming.

This is the reason I study Decred. There is something very powerful with this coin.

I plan to find out what it is.

8/ Monetary premiums article for those interested.

medium.com/@_Checkmatey_/…