, 8 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
1/ I am studying #Decred in the context of #Bitcoin in the early days.

I aim to assess the following:
- Compare $DCR and $BTC supply characteristics
- Performance of #DCR compared to young #BTC
- Decred unforgeable costliness
- Mathematical rigor for $DCR S2F model

Prelim ideas
2/ #Decred launched in Aug 2016 (~ BTC block 33600).

Given similar supply curve, I have offset $DCR performance by 33,600 BTC blocks and plotted as if #Decred launched side by side with #Bitcoin.

Unsurprisingly, #Decred behaves much like a 'smooth' #Bitcoin without halvings.
3/ Plan B established the invaluable and statistically valid S2F model for $BTC.

Key difference between scarcity of $DCR and $BTC is #Bitcoin immaculate conception, time alive (network effect) and block reward distribution.

21Million, predefined schedule and S2F path are equal.
4/ Thus my starting point (until research and observed data yield otherwise) is to assume that #Decred should conform to #Bitcoin S2F model.

Specifically the Realised Price of #Bitcoin has followed Plan Bs S2F model, accurately catching the realised price floors of bear markets
If #Decred does NOT conform to this S2F model, perhaps $DCR is not developing a valid monetary premium and may be discounted against $BTC.

However, if $DCR DOES perform, especially relative to $BTC in the early days (apples to apples), this becomes a convincing argument.
6/ Therefore I have plotted the following:

#Bitcoin S2F estimate, Realised Price and Spot Price
#Decred S2F estimate, Realised Price and Spot Price

Both are plotted against Bitcoin block height (assuming Decred launched on the same day as Bitcoin.

The chart is below
7/ What I am seeing aligns with my article on monetary premiums.

#Decred is not only performing similar to #Bitcoin in the early days.

It is outperforming.

This is the reason I study Decred. There is something very powerful with this coin.

I plan to find out what it is.
8/ Monetary premiums article for those interested.

Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Checkmate
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!