One like = One Opinion on Wisdom and Madness of Crowds
@vgr 1. It's become well known Crowds can in some circumstances aggregate information stunningly accurately.
An illustrative anecode is Sir Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged.
An illustrative anecode is Sir Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged.
2. What is less well known is that the mechanism of aggregation matters.
You might aggregate the information through voting or perhaps a market.
It can be as simple as asking many people to cross a park, a clear convenient beaten path emerges from their individual behavior.
You might aggregate the information through voting or perhaps a market.
It can be as simple as asking many people to cross a park, a clear convenient beaten path emerges from their individual behavior.
3. Crowds aren't inherently creative, they are well understood as very agressive hill climbing mechanisms. They will be terrible at crossing adaptive valleys.
4. Because of this machine learning partially obsoletes the traditional mechanisms of aggregation.
Machine learning on big data gathered through mass surveilance pushes against both voting and markets.
It enthrones revealed preferences. Whatever moves your behavior, will!
Machine learning on big data gathered through mass surveilance pushes against both voting and markets.
It enthrones revealed preferences. Whatever moves your behavior, will!
5. Spot the interesting assumption?
You can go very far by analyzing crowds as a tool. Crowds don't set agendas, rather they respond to them.
The task of leadership has always been to use social technology to harness crowds.
You can go very far by analyzing crowds as a tool. Crowds don't set agendas, rather they respond to them.
The task of leadership has always been to use social technology to harness crowds.
6. Speech giving might be seems as a purely passive activity. One where you are pleasing a crowd.
Consider that reading crowds is on of the few ways we can naturally take information about hundreds of people in.
An audience when gathered opens themselves up for surveilance.
Consider that reading crowds is on of the few ways we can naturally take information about hundreds of people in.
An audience when gathered opens themselves up for surveilance.
7. A good reality check on the intelligence of crowds is that a hierarchical military unit easily defeats mobs in combat.
And this points to an important strength and weakness: Crowds never implement processes or multi step plans.
A military unit might!
And this points to an important strength and weakness: Crowds never implement processes or multi step plans.
A military unit might!
8. The industrial revolution was not the consequence of crowds. Rather it was driven by manufacturing process. A team of workers isn't a mob or a crowd.
9. A natural and surprisingly scaleable method of aggregation is imitation of movement.
The movement of people, and hence their emotions are synchronized. A kind of trance.
We can see this induced in regimented manner in armies. But also infectiously in mobs and yes cities.
The movement of people, and hence their emotions are synchronized. A kind of trance.
We can see this induced in regimented manner in armies. But also infectiously in mobs and yes cities.
10. The role of crowds in cities isn't well understood.
I would go as far as to say that you don't have a real city without mass gatherings and that it might be main acculturation engine.
Ancient Greek Theater and the NYC subway both permanently socially alter participants.
I would go as far as to say that you don't have a real city without mass gatherings and that it might be main acculturation engine.
Ancient Greek Theater and the NYC subway both permanently socially alter participants.
11. Different emotions travel differently through physical crowds of different sizes.
Joy and bliss seem to lose out to anger and mobilizing aggression as you increase number of gathered beyond 400.
Teachers scale their movements often change messages...
Joy and bliss seem to lose out to anger and mobilizing aggression as you increase number of gathered beyond 400.
Teachers scale their movements often change messages...
12. Now let's move away from the internal dynamics of crowds to effects of massed attention.
Eric S. Raymond suggested that given enough eyeballs all bugs are shallow. I suspect given enough eyeballs all bugs are features.
Mass attention *fixates* institutional forms.
Eric S. Raymond suggested that given enough eyeballs all bugs are shallow. I suspect given enough eyeballs all bugs are features.
Mass attention *fixates* institutional forms.
13. Massed crowd attention is damaging to individuals.
Forget mechanism, think about the evidence. The numbers for life outcomes of child actors makes them the tragic canary in the coal mine.
If fame was a substance it would be outlawed.
Forget mechanism, think about the evidence. The numbers for life outcomes of child actors makes them the tragic canary in the coal mine.
If fame was a substance it would be outlawed.
14. Two kinds of crowds.
Parasocial crowds. These can be simulated. Symbol mediated.
Eg viral tweet
Physical crowds. Can be induced, but cannot be simulated.
Eg Riot in a bread line, brawl in a tavern, a packed NYC subway cart
Very different information processing!
Parasocial crowds. These can be simulated. Symbol mediated.
Eg viral tweet
Physical crowds. Can be induced, but cannot be simulated.
Eg Riot in a bread line, brawl in a tavern, a packed NYC subway cart
Very different information processing!
15. Potemkin Crowds. False mass support organizations are common. Fake user bases and counts as well.
Physical crowds of people can be faked by governments as well. They can be actors, but logistically easier is civilian clothed security or military personnel.
Physical crowds of people can be faked by governments as well. They can be actors, but logistically easier is civilian clothed security or military personnel.
16. Groupthink is a nice example of the madness of crowds. It leads to failures to accrue information or even its destruction.
A somewhat misused term since people call cases of preference falsification groupthink. Let's then first clarify the terms:
A somewhat misused term since people call cases of preference falsification groupthink. Let's then first clarify the terms:
17. Preference falsification: Endorsing what is socially desirable. This might be driven by a correct or incorrect appraisal of what the local consensus is on object level beliefs.
Groupthink: Changing object level beliefs to match local consensus.
Groupthink: Changing object level beliefs to match local consensus.
18. You can ameliorate Groupthink by selecting for less influenceable individuals. You can't much ameliorate Preference Falsification through mere selection, since those disagreeable or blind enough to not follow social gradient are disagreeable enough to dissolve groups.
19. Preference Falsification can be tackled by introducing additional social technologies.
Either bind the disagreeable together or alter what beliefs the group binds on to ones that are irrelevant for the task at hand.
This increases resistance to Groupthink as well.
Either bind the disagreeable together or alter what beliefs the group binds on to ones that are irrelevant for the task at hand.
This increases resistance to Groupthink as well.
20. Potemkin Crowds have four key functions:
1. Induce Groupthink, changing individual beliefs.
2. Craft useful Preference Falsification disrupting organization.
3. Produce legitimacy for decisions.
4. Provide plausible deniability for proxy violence.
1. Induce Groupthink, changing individual beliefs.
2. Craft useful Preference Falsification disrupting organization.
3. Produce legitimacy for decisions.
4. Provide plausible deniability for proxy violence.
21. Potemkin Crowds are an example of the tools used to deceive and manage crowds.
False Consciousness is the usual term for such tactics. Read up! An example of what Marxist theory gets right.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_con…
False Consciousness is the usual term for such tactics. Read up! An example of what Marxist theory gets right.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_con…
22. Leaders have managed crowds through history, much as one might manage combustible fuel. Most tasks of leadership is one of preventing mobs from forming. But sometimes one wants to combust them. You might want their information processing... or to burn something down.
23. While there is high bandwidth communication in physical crowds gathered together, most experiences with crowds online or televised are parasocial.
Such one sided relationships can be thought as the equivalent of optical illusions of the social mind.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parasocia…
Such one sided relationships can be thought as the equivalent of optical illusions of the social mind.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parasocia…
24. Parasocial bonds don't result in much information processing. So if a crowd is mostly parasocial it is rather dumb and doesn't do much processing.
