Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

Impeachment is happening today.

To understand how we got to this point, worth reviewing the event that brought us here (the July 25 🇺🇸-🇺🇦 phone call) in the context of international relations scholarship.

[THREAD]

As @realDonaldTrump admitted yesterday, he did ask for a "favor"

In the memcon of the conversation, that "favor" is for 🇺🇦 to investigate Joe Biden

In the letter, @realDonaldTrump claims that the favor had no strings attached

But that is where things get tricky and IR theory can help.

(1) 🇺🇦is desperate for 🇺🇸 assistance

(2) Diplomatic quid pro quos are complicated when they involve domestic politics

Re #1, 🇺🇦 is in the midst of war in the East

Importantly, the war is between separatist forces backed by Russia (most famously, the "little green men")...

...and Ukrainian forces supported by the US

So it's effectively a "proxy war" between 🇺🇸 (w/ @NATO) &🇷🇺.
And some fear that things could escalate

nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/yes-…

This conflict comes on the heels of Russia's fait accompli (h/t @daltman_IR) annexation of Crimea in 2014

Why is 🇺🇸 even involved? The 🇺🇸 has been committed to the security of 🇺🇦 since the signing of the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 (notice that 🇷🇺was also a signatory...oops).

This was signed as a way to encourage 🇺🇦 to give 🇷🇺 back its nukes (which ended up in 🇺🇦 following the collapse of the Soviet Union).

At the time, this exchange was viewed as a key accomplishment of 🇺🇸 &🇷🇺 post-Cold War cooperation (namely due to the "Boris-Bill friendship")

In short, 🇺🇦 is in a precarious situation and desperate for continued 🇺🇸 support.

Hence, Zelensky has a HUGE (BIGLY?) incentive to not tick off @realDonaldTrump.

So of course Zelensky is going to say "nope, no pressure at all".

Re #2, offering a "quid pro quo" is a very common diplomatic practice. International relations scholars typically refer to these as "side-payments" or "issue linkages".

They are usually "exchanges" in foreign policy concessions: ie. I'll give you an alliance if you give me trade

Do they work? That's exactly what I explored in this @IntOrgJournal piece

cambridge.org/core/journals/…

The answer is "yes": issue linkage offers can increase the probability of reaching agreement by as much as 30 percent

And the US has long loved dolling out goodies for the purpose of finding states willing to support its military adventures. @mephenke details this in her new @CornellPress book:

books.google.com/books?id=97ytD…

To be clear, being "politically" motivated is not a bad reason to pursue a policy. It's safe to assume that EVERY policy that EVERY leader pursues is done with the goal of staying in office

google.com/books/edition/…

What's different here is that the request is being done to target a domestic political opponent: Trump is pressuring a foreign government to investigate a political rival in order to disrupt a US presidential election.

That, shall we say, is "highly problematic"

So, at best, Trump's call was "highly problematic" and "inappropriate". At worst, it was an "abuse of power" and, hence, impeachable.

My view? Because the "quid pro quo" gets into a diplomatic "grey area", the "obstruction of congress" charge is the bigger problem for @realDonaldTrump.

And we all now know EXACTLY how Trump feels about that charge

But I guess we'll all soon see how it all plays out.

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