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What do we know about war? A lot, as I found out this weekend during the "What Do We Know About War" conference at @uiowa.

To help summarize what we know, consider the current war in Ukraine (🇺🇦)

[THREAD]
A (The) major issue over which states go to war? Territory and borders.

Is that the case with the 🇺🇦 war? Yep!
The relative power between two states (say, their relative military sizes) influences whether they go to war.

Is that the case with the 🇺🇦 war? Yep!
Nuclear weapons can effectively deter a state (and giving them up can leave a state vulnerable)

Is that the case with the 🇺🇦 war? Yep!

nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukra…
War is not going away (sorry @sapinker)

The 🇺🇦 war is a case in point.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-…
Alliances can effectively deter (under certain conditions). @NATO is a case in point...if you are a full member.

Does the 🇺🇦 war illustrate this point? Yep!

brookings.edu/blog/order-fro…
Arms races are strongly associated with war onset.

Okay, no real evidence of an "arms race" prior to the 🇺🇦 war (as Ukraine spending relatively flat UNTIL invasion of Crimea)

data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.M…
Rivalry is strongly correlated with conflict.

Was that the case with the 🇺🇦 war? Yes, if you see it as an outcome of NATO/EU-🇷🇺 rivalry.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/russi…
The personalities of leaders can have a big influence on war onset.

Yeah, pretty sure that played a role in the 🇺🇦 war

politico.eu/article/russia…
Democracy and Trade are associated with a lower likelihood of conflict.

Does that help explain the onset of the 🇺🇦 war? Well, the uneven spread of democracy to both 🇺🇦 &🇷🇺 likely played some role.

washingtonpost.com/world/2019/11/…
Countries without territorial disputes tend to be at peace and become democratic.

"Territorial Peace" definitely not present b/w 🇺🇦-🇷🇺

foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
Peace processes can work, when backed by major power enforcement.

With respect to the 🇺🇦 war, we will see what comes from the "Normandy Formula"

atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
A key source of funding wars is external, be it grants or loans.

I think we ALL know by now that this played in a role in the 🇺🇦 war

nytimes.com/2019/11/05/us/…
Cyber is an emerging area of conflict....and we don't know all that much about it.

But it was tried by 🇷🇺 against 🇺🇦

wired.com/story/russian-…
Wars can have far reaching consequences, especially when they alter the territorial status quo.

That's likely to happen when the 🇺🇦 war is over.

theatlantic.com/international/…
All of these lessons will eventually make their way into the 3rd edition of the popular "What Do We Know About War?" series (now edited by @sbmitche & John Vasquez).

books.google.com/books?id=OHd55…
There's still more to learn. War is not over and neither is our need to study and understand it.

[END]
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More from @ProfPaulPoast see all

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Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
What Do We Know About War?

At the WDWKAW conference (h/t @sbmitche) this weekend, @rosellacappella & I will share what we know about paying for war.

Summary 👇

[THREAD]
In my recent @AnnualReviews piece, I touched on war finance being an emerging area of research in the Political Economy of Security:

annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.114…
War finance has long been directly studied by Economic Historians, such as the excellent @CambridgeUP volumes edited by @mark4harrison
Read 23 tweets
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Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
I did it -- I taught "Clash of Civilizations" to my "Intro to IR" students.

How did I do it? How did it go?

[THREAD]
First, I had them read Huntington's 1993 @ForeignAffairs piece

foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Second, I posed the question: "Should We Study Clash?"
Read 27 tweets
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Paul Poast
@ProfPaulPoast
Good question!

Lots of ways to measure "attention": cites, media outreach, speaking engagements, placed on syllabus, or policy engagement

Sometimes these go together, but not always/often: paper could generate buzz, but not be cited; paper could be cited a lot because its wrong
So which paper of mine do I feel "under performed" or, stated differently, "flew under the radar"?

One of my methods pieces, namely my 2013 @polanalysis piece w/ Walter Mebane

cambridge.org/core/journals/…
The title probably didn't help: I mean it's just loaded with words & phrases that make you go 🙄😴

"Causal Inference"

"Ignorability"

"Identification"

"nonrandom assignment"

...aaaaannnnddd I'm asleep.
Read 19 tweets

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Armond Ray Erickson
@ArmonRaE
@JoyAnnReid #Ukraine is a top military arms EXPORTING nation.
Hundreds of million$ in U.S. military aid helps Ukraine sell their weaponry to China!
#Trump continually gives military aid to Ukraine to buy U.S. weapons, including #Javelins not used in #Donbas conflict.
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@JoyAnnReid Do you believe Ukraine is now fighting for its survival against an invasion of Russian soldiers with thousands of casualties?
It’s nothing like that.
#ObamaBiden denied all military aid to #Poroshenko fearing that lethal aid would provoke Moscow.
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#UnRedactedCopy Lori
@LJT_is_me
I figured something out, and because of impact on others I was going to stop posting on twitter; but they're doing this to everyone. So here goes for this weeks example.

I'm sorry Seth, but your perfect tweet's needed to explain. 👇

His tweet highlights a massively important point, if you don't follow him? You're likely to miss it. Mulvaney's press conference and his subsequent press conference AND everything President Donald J Trump has done is to EDUCATE people on how and what the government SHOULD do.
I'm on 9 block lists ~ I thought was because I offended too many people. I do have that gift but we have had people who are helping silence Free Speech by creating these block lists. Programs that tech uses pick up the rest. Bringing China's social media scores world wide.
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Dannielle Blumenthal PhD
@DrDannielle
So are you sick of this fake Ukraine whistleblower story yet?

Don't worry!

There's more!
This person made a whole timeline. You can view it in Google Sheets format here. (I converted it and it's rough. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…)
Posting the link again. It should be working.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
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David Pepper
@DavidPepper
1/30

THREAD

Today, the Ohio Democratic Party released an updated timeline of @senrobportman 's intense involvement in the Ukraine crisis that is now the center of the impeachment inquiry.
@senrobportman 2/30

The bottom line is that as chair of the Ukraine Caucus, Portman didn’t only have a front row seat to the entire ordeal — it appears that he was directly engaged with all sides of what was a deeply problematic conversation as that conversation occurred.
@senrobportman 3/30

Portman owes Ohioans and all Americans a full and transparent account of what he knew, when he knew it and what steps he took once it became clear what Donald Trump and Rudy Giuliani were up to.
Read 30 tweets
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Simon Ostrovsky
@SimonOstrovsky
10 mins till polls close in Ukraine and the first exit polls start coming out but judging by the moods in the campaign HQs Zelensky is seeing good results.
It’s against the rules to quote exit polls before voting ends in Ukraine, unlike the US, but the campaigns have been getting the data throughout the day.
Absolute mad house at Zelensky HQ as the candidate arrive
Read 10 tweets
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Paula Chertok🗽
@PaulaChertok
#Ukraine’s on the verge of martial law b/c #Russia just seriously escalated its 4yo illegal war—blocking key Kerch Strait, firing on & seizing 3 Ukrainian navy ships, wounding 6 Ukrainian sailors—AND Trump attacks NATO & EU. Appalling, terrifying & expected of a #PutinPuppet.
#Russia’s fresh aggression in its 4+yr illegal war on #Ukraine is a crisis with advance warning. Read @KyivPost’s coverage of Russia’s military threats to gain control of Azov Sea kyivpost.com/ukraine-politi… via @BSBonner #KerchStrait #KerchBlockade #PutinWar #RussiaAttacksUkraine
Escalating tensions between #Russia and #Ukraine in the Sea of Azov bear echoes of Russian provocations that led to the war with Georgia in 2008 atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atla… via @AtlanticCouncil h/t @IlvesToomas #KerchBlockade #KerchStrait #RussiaAttacksUkraine #BlackSea
Read 9 tweets

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