Thread by @MiekeEoyang

So the Republicans are hanging their #impeachment case on four points, circulated to their members today. If this is the best they've got, they're in trouble. I will explain.

Point 1: the call summary.

Trump's aides know a) he's not the most coherent speaker and b) the kingpin never actually says the incriminating thing.

So they have to set the context for the call.

They communicate the actual ask on *three* occasions before the 25th call.

Trump's aides tell Ukrainians a WH visit is conditioned on investigations into Hunter Biden & 2016 on:

July 2, in Toronto when Volker talks to Zelenskyy.
July 10, at the WH when Sondland meets a Ukrainian delegation.
July 19, on a phone call between Sondland & Zelenskyy.

Trump *himself* says on the call that the Ukrainians haven't done enough for the US, and says "do us a favor, though" and mentions Biden, Burisma, Crowdstrike and 2016, thus confirming the context set by Volker and Sondland.

AND the pressure campaign continued after the call.

Point 2: Zelensky and Trump have said there was no pressure.

Of course Zelensky says publicly there's no pressure. This is like asking a prisoner if he's treated well. He's already under pressure.

Zelensky felt the pressure because half his country was under attack by the Russians and he needed to demonstrate a good relationship with the US to fend them off. He would do almost anything to create that impression. That's why he wanted the meeting with Trump.

In the *FIRST* call between Trump and Zelensky, on April 21, they want a WH meeting. As a newly-elected President Zelensky needed Trump on his side to show the Russians.

As early as May 7, Zelensky was feeling the pressure to investigate Hunter Biden.
apnews.com/b048901b635f42…

Remember, throughout April and May, the President's personal lawyer, Giuliani, is aggressively tweeting that Zelensky is surrounding himself with Democrats, and that Ukraine needs to investigate Biden.

Trump declines to attend Zelensky's inauguration, sending Rick Perry, Volker, Sondland, and Vindman instead. During the debrief on May 23, Trump appoints Volker, Sondland & Perry to lead Ukraine engagement, telling them to coordinate with Giuliani.

On July 2, Volker pulls Zelensky aside for a one on one away from aides, to convey the full extent of the ask for the meeting. On July 10, Sondland makes explicit the exchange for investigation in a meeting with Ukrainians. Bolton abruptly ends the meeting.

On July 19, an aide to Zelensky, Andrei Yermak asks Volker for help reaching Giuliani.

The next day, Taylor gets a call from Danyliuk, Zelenksy's senior national security advisor, who says Zelensky doesn't want to be in the middle of domestic politics.

This is a sustained pressure campaign to get the Ukrainians to do something they don't want to do. It's carried out via social media by the President's personal attorney. It's carried out in person in conversations with Volker & Sondland. It continues AFTER the July 25 call.

Point 3: The Ukrainians didn't know the military aid was on hold.

Actually, there were *two* official acts on the line in exchange for two politically-motivated investigations.

The *second* was the military aid. The first was a WH meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy.

Trump officials *repeatedly and explicitly* made clear a WH meeting was at stake for politically-motivated investigations of Bidens & the 2016 election. Definitely on July 2, July 10, and July 19, culminating in the July 25 call.

That doesn't count the unofficial contacts.

Meanwhile, Trump directs OMB to hold the military aid, which is conveyed to State & DOD on July 18, before the call. Trump aides go out of their way to not mention this.

Ukraine finds out the aid is being withheld the first week of August. nytimes.com/2019/10/23/us/…

Mid August, Yermak begins working on a statement about corruption & investigations generally, but want a date set for WH meeting. Volker, Sondland want an explicit mention of Burisma, Biden, 2016. Meanwhile, the aid is still held, in jeopardy of being lost.

On August 28, @politico breaks the news that the aid is being withheld. Yermak reaches out to Taylor, the acting ambassador in Ukraine.

On September 1, Sondland tells Yermak resumption of the military aid is contingent on the previously discussed "anti-corruption" statement.

On September 8, Taylor registers concern with Sondland that it is wrong to condition military aid and the WH meeting on an investigation for domestic politics. Sondland says there's no quid pro quo, but that if Zelensky doesn't make the statement, there's a "stalemate" on aid.

Note: on September 14, Volker urges Ukraine not to investigate Zelensky's predecessor. Yermak says: you mean like the investigations you want us to do on Biden & Clinton?

This is to say, the call on the 25th was not the end of the pressure campaign, it was the MIDDLE.

Ukraine was well aware the aid was withheld & the condition for lifting the hold was a statement on Biden, Burisma, and the 2016 elections.

Point 4: The security assistance flowed without Ukraine investigating the rivals.

Yes on September 11, Trump releases the hold on the aid, under pressure from Republican Senators and the public, before Zelensky announced an investigation into Burisma, the Bidens, and 2016.

But, before that, Zelensky scheduled an interview with @FareedZakaria on @CNN for September 13 to make the statement about investigations into Burisma, Biden, and the 2016 elections during a conference in Ukraine.

On September 14, in a meeting with Yermak, Volker urged the Ukrainians not to investigate Poroshenko, Zelensky's predecessor.

Yermak replies, you mean the way you wanted us to do for you with Biden and Clinton?

Ukraine knows what's up.

But, don't think that the conditions that led to this pressure campaign have gone away with the release of the aid.

Zelensky faces the risk of retaliation from Trump for being at the center of this thing.

Russia is still occupying Eastern Ukraine.

Trump is still President.

These impeachment hearings could change that.

America needs to decide if coercing a foreign power into investigating an American citizen for political advantage is something a President can or should do.

If Trump is still President, he will try again.