In the past week (12/16-22) there have been 27 protests involving 16,550 protesters, the lowest number of protesters of any of the 28 weeks since protests began on June 9.
In all, since June 9, there have been 774 protests involving 12,780,416 protesters.
bit.ly/2Q9GIs9
In all, since June 9, there have been 774 protests involving 12,780,416 protesters.
bit.ly/2Q9GIs9
Protest turnout this past week isn't necessarily that indicative: December protester number is higher than November's. There were no medium-size (50-100k) protests this week. The next mass protest is planned for Jan 1.That turnout should be indicative of the state of the movement
More striking than the protester number this past week is that there've been no large-scale frontliner protests since mid-November. The real question in terms of the state & direction of the movement is whether frontliners will come back out in large numbers.
The #HK freedom struggle has 3 prongs: 1) protests, 2) community organization/grassroots democracy/electoral politics, 3) intl lobbying. It's well developed in each area. If frontliners don't return in large numbers, the movement will continue but will change significantly.
Up to now, frontliners have given the movement momentum & provided a focal point around which to rally. They've also kept the movement on the frontfoot, govt & police on the backfoot. In their absence, we can already start to see changes in #HK govt & police tactics & actions.
#HK govt & police are currently probing to test the strength of the movement. Examples: freezing HK$70mil in Spark Alliance funds for arrested protesters, crackdown on teachers. They're waiting to see what our response is. If it's judged tepid, they'll step up the crackdown.
So the question at this point isn't whether the movement's winding down but how it will change if frontliners remain on the sidelines & the extent to which govt & police will go on the offensive, stepping up arrests, prosecutions & persecution of civil society & #HK people.
