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Today, Jan 1, 2020, is the @wto’s 25th anniversary.

Well known: Its struggles in dispute settlement and negotiating new agreements.

Much less attention paid to: its success. This is important for understanding international trade.

Thread: 1/7

Updated: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/12/11/wto…
First, let’s get rid of the idea that the WTO has ground to a halt because of the dispute settlement crisis.

Far from it. Here’s the calendar of meetings for 2020 (more will be added during the year).

These meetings are key to the story.

2/7

wto.org/english/news_e… Screenshot of the first few items of the linked 2020 calendar
Bertelsmann Stiftung has a paper on the economic value of the rules-based global trading system.

Some tough nuts to crack: how to isolate cause and effect—when the WTO has no enforcement, relying on members’ self-interest.



My take, 4 points:

3/7
1. Countries set up the @wto in 1995 (& GATT 1948–94) to help trade flow more smoothly.

How?
— A system based on negotiated rules, that is
— transparent
— predictable
— stable
— minimises disputes

In this the WTO has been overwhelmingly successful

4/7

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/12/11/wto… Screenshot based on linked article:<br />
<br />
Glitch-free trade<br />
One of the WTO’s purposes is to minimise trade disputes — via a transparent, predictable, stable, rules-based system.<br />
Around 60,000 non-tariff measures (‘SPS’ & ‘TBT’) were notified in the WTO’s first quarter century.<br />
How many ended up as disputes? 45
2. The main part of the @wto’s work is sharing information and—if necessary—discussing trade measures under the agreements.

That so much of this goes unnoticed, shows how well the system works, for $20 trillion annual trade in goods and services.

5/7

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/12/11/wto… Screenshot based on an extract from the linked article:<br />
<br />
Glitch-free trade: How to avoid disputes<br />
<br />
<span class=1. Design measures so they comply with the rules
2. Talk about any concerns they raise

Out of the 60,000 notified TBT and SPS measures, concerns were raised about only 1,000.
Most of them were settled in the committees." src="/images/1px.png" data-src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENMHjyiWkAM117q.png">
3. Dispute settlement is NOT a main purpose of the @wto. AVOIDING the need for dispute settlement IS.

WTO rules work silently, unnoticed. For 98% of measures, that’s it. Job done.

Discussing another ≈2% in committees is enough too. Again, job done

6/7

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/12/11/wto… Screenshot of an extract from the linked article:<br />
<br />
Glitch-free trade: Minimising disputes.<br />
<br />
As a result of this process, out of the 60,000 notified TBT and SPS measures, only 45 full-blown cases were brought to formal dispute settlement. Over 99% of measures never reached the dispute stage.
4. This is what @wto is supposed to do, to allow trade to flow smoothly with a minimum of glitches.

It’s the/an achievement of the WTO system of agreed rules.

We never hear about it because it works well. Perhaps we should pay more attention to it.

7/7

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/12/11/wto… Screenshot based on an extract from the linked article:<br />
<br />
Glitch-free trade<br />
<br />
This is what the WTO is supposed to do, to allow trade to flow smoothly with a minimum of glitches.<br />
<br />
It’s the achievement of the WTO system and of WTO members’ commitment to play by the rules — mostly.<br />
<br />
We never hear about it precisely because it<br />
works well.<br />
<br />
Perhaps we should pay more attention to it.
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