#Thread Sharing some data on the significance of Jamaica’s current 19 consecutive quarters of year-on-year quarterly economic growth. 
Jamaica has now experienced 19 consecutive quarters of economic growth. This is after the modest growth in the 3rd qtr of 2019 over the 3rd qtr of 2018, despite the significant external economic shock, from US/China trade tensions, that led to the closure of JISCO/Alpart plant.
19 consecutive quarters of economic growth is more than DOUBLE the previous longest stretch of continuous quarterly economic growth since Jamaica started measuring growth quarterly in 1997.
The previous longest period of consecutive quarterly economic growth was only 9 quarters between Q3 2002 and Q3 2004 and again between Q3 2005 and Q3 2007.
That is, since 1997, outside of the current 19 consecutive quarters (or nearly 5 years) of economic expansion, Jamaica would have experienced a maximum of only 2 years of economic growth before sliding into many quarters of economic decline.
More often growth was experienced for 1 year or less before sliding into multiple quarters of economic decline.
To understand how significant of a departure this is from our historical experience, consider the following:
1/ There have been 9 periods of year-over-year quarterly economic decline in the last 23 yrs with 6 of these lasting at least two consecutive qtrs (and most lasting much, much longer) compared with only 1 such period in the United States, (for comparison), over the same 23 years.
2/ More granular detail – since we started measuring growth QTRLY & PRIOR to these current 19 consecutive QTRS of economic growth, Jamaica experienced 33 qtrs of year-over-year qtrly economic decline & 37 qtrs of year-over-year qtrly economic growth. A VERY unstable & bumpy ride.
3/ Over the same 70 quarters the United States had 66 quarters of year-over-year economic growth and only 4 quarters of year-over-year economic decline. Consider that. (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis)
This historical macro-economic instability of the Jamaican economy - characterized by many swings between growth and decline is exactly the opposite of what we want.
The growth in short bursts was unsustainable (as the underlying macro policies then were unsustainable) & as a result, gains of a few QTRS of growth were wiped out by subsequent QTRS of decline, in a see-saw unstable fashion & per capita GDP stagnated over two decades as a result
Macro-stability on the other hand predisposes the economy to longer periods of economic expansion, as we have been experiencing, while at the same time preserving policy flexibility and policy space in the event of a downturn for counter-cyclical options.
Reflecting on the data above - Jamaica has had a torturous economic history brought on, for the most part, by our own historical domestic policy choices.
However, due to the collective effort of the Jamaican people, we are finally in a different place. A place of macro-stability and our future is brighter than it has ever been, though work remains to be done.
The storm clouds of the JISCO plant closure will pass and Jamaica will return to higher levels of growth in the 2020/21 financial year and beyond.
Between 2016 and 2019 the price of Alumina on the world market fell from approximately US$500 per tonne to US$300 per tonne.
Prior to closure production costs were in the region of US$480 per tonne.
Prior to closure production costs were in the region of US$480 per tonne.
With the closure of the JISCO refinery it’s capacity will be upgraded & expanded as a result of several hundred million US dollars of investment over 24 months with a resulting lower production cost per tonne. In the medium term Jamaica stands to benefit from the JISCO upgrade.
