Thread by @DellAnnaLuca

CHOOSE LINDY OBJECTIVES (thread)

1/ The Lindy principle: for something non perishable, age is an estimate for life expectancy

Example: a book which has been popular for 100 years is likely to be still popular in 100 years
Last year’s bestseller is unlikely to be popular in 100y

2/ Lindiness is an inverse measure of number and specificity of assumptions needed for survival.

The environment constantly changes; something which survived for long lived through many different environmental conditions and demonstrated survival to change.

3/ Lindiness is not only related to age.

A book which is popular across many counties is less likely to require assumptions which are true for a single country, and is therefore Lindier than a book which is only popular in one country.

4/ The less assumptions required, the more probable that something remains relevant over time.

Which brings us to the topic of this thread:

Choose Lindy objectives: objectives which do not require many assumptions for them to be good for you (or be flexible in changing them)

5/ Choosing narrow objectives does have advantages - for example, they’re easier to visualize for motivating yourself.

However, they’re more likely to be traps.

As time passes, circumstances change and they’re not a good fit for you anymore.

For example…

6/ For example a career which requires many assumptions might have been a good choice when you were a teenager, but is now a bad choice.

Or a life choice which was good for your 20s might become harmful for who you are in your 30s.