1/ I have a few issues with this thread, hoping others weigh in as well.
2/ First, the author appears to be a climate cultist. Nothing wrong with being a climate cultist except that the suggestion of an agenda at play is immediately evident. Climate cultists tend to be long Tezzler. 
3/ Issue #1. Author talks about "delta hedging" alot. For those unaware, delta is a very dynamic thing - it changes materially as an option moves deeper into or out of the money. For every dollar move in the stock, the option moves by the delta.
4/ If you bought a call today with a delta of .67 to hedge short shares, that option will start out capturing 67% of the upside move. As the move in the stock accelerates up, so does the delta of the option. The closer you get to 1, the LESS you have to hedge.
5/ Some people hedge notional, some delta hedge. Doesn't matter, because it always changes and one always adjusts. Sometimes you need to be precise, sometimes you just need to be close, like hand grenades.
6/ Back to issue #1. Author made an assumption about delta. It's not unimportant and really skews things. Author assumed 45. Well, Bloomberg shows 700k calls (88% outstanding) have an average delta of .59. That's material. 90k calls (11% outstanding) have a delta > .99.
7/ Same with the puts. Author talks about dollar value of puts (conflating issues) without discussing delta. The delta on 1.4mm puts averages almost 10, about 2x what the author estimated. Both #6 and #7 imply fewer shares needed to "delta hedge."
8/ I downloaded the data but Bloomberg is smart and does not let you manipulate their data. The spreadsheet is too big to screenshot. You'll just have to trust me. But here are a few shots to give you a flavor. Note date and skew. Look at the deltas.
9/ Issue #2 was no mention of converts and that massive appetite for hedges. No idea how many converts guys own the paper unhedged, but I can't imagine many. Here's the holders list.
I circled the "bullish" converts.
I crack myself up sometimes.
I circled the "bullish" converts.
I crack myself up sometimes.
You can do math as well as I and ballpark what the converts might add to the stock drama, but my rough guess is about 8 million shares. Remember, delta is dynamic and if you delta hedge you adjust frequently. The closer you get to 1, the less you have to hedge.
