Looking at the evolution of Disney segment OI over time was helpful in appreciating the transition the biz was undergoing.
With Peacock investor day this week, thought I'd take a look at NBCU.
With Peacock investor day this week, thought I'd take a look at NBCU.
Comcast bought NBCU in 2011, but 2012 is first full year of operating control.
Can see Cable Networks were 72% of EBITDA, and Cable Nets + Broadcast were 79%.
Today Cable Networks are 46% and Cable Nets + Broadcast are 64%.
Theme parks + Studio are up from 21% to 36%.
Can see Cable Networks were 72% of EBITDA, and Cable Nets + Broadcast were 79%.
Today Cable Networks are 46% and Cable Nets + Broadcast are 64%.
Theme parks + Studio are up from 21% to 36%.
The TV world is bifurcating between "live" e.g. sports, news and events, and what I'll call general entertainment, which is drama, sitcoms, syndication, etc. Slightly dated, but can see the difference in usage between the two. Live is flat to up, everything else is down big.
Combining TV into a segment and allocating to General Entertainment and Live:
Cable Networks: 55-60% of EBITDA is G.E. (USA, Syfy, Bravo..) vs 40-45% Live (CNBC, MSNBC, NBCSN..)
For Broadcast, 40% is G.E (primetime), 60% Live (NFL, sports, Today)
Total = 52.5% G.E./47.5% Live
Cable Networks: 55-60% of EBITDA is G.E. (USA, Syfy, Bravo..) vs 40-45% Live (CNBC, MSNBC, NBCSN..)
For Broadcast, 40% is G.E (primetime), 60% Live (NFL, sports, Today)
Total = 52.5% G.E./47.5% Live
There are A LOT of assumptions behind this, so anyone with sharper pencil please weigh in. I used Kagan for Cable Nets.
For Broadcast, I put majority of value of affiliate fees towards Live, and for advertising looked at GRPs by type at the Network (Local is mostly sports/news)
For Broadcast, I put majority of value of affiliate fees towards Live, and for advertising looked at GRPs by type at the Network (Local is mostly sports/news)
Recasting TV this way, you can look at 2019 EBITDA. General Entertainment TV is roughly 34% of EBITDA, Sports & News TV is 30.5%, Theme Parks are 27% and Studio is 9%. Again, these are rough estimates.
Using 2019, can then roll forward NBCU with recast segments.
Even before Peacock, Theme Parks were set to be the growth driver.
With Peacock, I allocate majority of investment to General Entertainment.
Looking out to 2024, G.E. falls from 34% of EBITDA to 26%.
Even before Peacock, Theme Parks were set to be the growth driver.
With Peacock, I allocate majority of investment to General Entertainment.
Looking out to 2024, G.E. falls from 34% of EBITDA to 26%.
For perspective, you can look at Comcast consolidated.
Today General Entertainment is 8.4% of EBITDA, Sports & News is 7.6% and TV in total is 16%.
In 2024 General Entertainment will be 5.8%, Sports & News 6.8% and TV in total 12.6%.
Rough estimates but hopefully ballpark.
Today General Entertainment is 8.4% of EBITDA, Sports & News is 7.6% and TV in total is 16%.
In 2024 General Entertainment will be 5.8%, Sports & News 6.8% and TV in total 12.6%.
Rough estimates but hopefully ballpark.
It's helpful to dimension the size of the "problem" within NBCU, and Comcast.
Netflix has usurped the job of General Entertainment that broadcast and TNT, USA, Bravo, etc once did.
Meanwhile, Sports & News are likely to remain with NBC, DIS, FOX, etc for the forecast horizon.
Netflix has usurped the job of General Entertainment that broadcast and TNT, USA, Bravo, etc once did.
Meanwhile, Sports & News are likely to remain with NBC, DIS, FOX, etc for the forecast horizon.
So the Q isn't will General Entertainment struggle, it's how much capital will be invested there.
CFO has already called out $2B for Peacock over next 2 years.
But to warrant Craig Moffett's $55B conglomerate discount you have to assume much worse, at odds with Comcast history
CFO has already called out $2B for Peacock over next 2 years.
But to warrant Craig Moffett's $55B conglomerate discount you have to assume much worse, at odds with Comcast history
