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(Thread) Senate Trial

Possible outcomes and why McConnell wants to deep-six a trial.

💠Enough GOP Senators vote against Trump and remove him from office.

If this happens, it will be the first time in American history that a president is removed by this means.
1/ You might think, why are Republicans so opposed to this? They’ll have President Pence, and they’ll run someone for president who isn’t so hated.

The GOP will resist because if they remove Trump—no matter how guilty he is—they know what will happen to their party.
2/ Trump supporters will turn on the GOP, splintering the party.

The only way Trump’s removal holds the GOP together is if Trump leaves voluntarily and throws his support behind Pence.

Do you think Trump would do that?
Me, neither. He's not the type.
3/ Plus, he's in legal jeopardy in New York state, so a pardon can't help him.

Second possibility:

💠A handful of Senators vote against Trump, but not enough to remove him from office

This too will enrage Trump’s supporters. They'll turn on the Senators who voted to convict.
4/ This, too, will splinter the Republican Party. The GOP is a minority party. Its demographics are shrinking. They can't afford to splinter.

It will also highlight Trump’s crimes to persuadable voters.

Trump can’t afford to lose any support, even a half of a percent.
5/ Third possibility:

💠The GOP sticks together and all GOP Senators line up behind Trump.

This is the GOP’s best chance for survival: They hold their minority party together and try to create chaos to splinter the opposition.
6/ It still isn’t great option for them, particularly if it’s clear to voters in places like Maine, Colorado, Alaska and elsewhere that their Senators voted to acquit despite evidence of guilt.

Also, remember, more evidence will come out later.
7/ Eventually the House will get their hands on Trump's financial docs and taxes.

Voting to acquit can be dangerous because vulnerable GOP Senators run for reelection tightly linked to Trump.
(The albatross theory)
8/ Another possible outcome: The Senate votes to censure instead of remove.

I can’t see how this is any better for the GOP.

Censure is a finding of guilt. How can they censure him, and then support him for re-election?
9/ It's important to hold on to this possibility.

In the movies, trials are thrilling. In real life, not so much.

Hollywood movies give us, well, Hollywood endings.

This, in contrast, will be an ongoing saga.
Trump's base controls the Republican Party. The Republican Party has the Senate, White House, and most states (is it still most?)

That's how about 35% of the population is controlling all of us.

Why is the GOP afraid of Trump's base?

Without Trump's base, they will have an extremely difficult time winning election.

What happened in a nutshell: Conservatives welcomed right wing authoritarians into their party so they could achieve national electoral victories. . . .
. . . and then the right wing authoritarians did what authoritarians do: They took over the GOP.

Authoritarians have always exerted power beyond their numbers⤵️

The GOP base is shrinking. Their long term prospects are poor. That's why they're desperate.
Their only hope is to destroy democracy. And they are trying.

That's what all the lying is about. They lie because they know the lies destroy.

We win by holding onto our ideals and not giving into cynicism (see earlier thread today)
The only possibility I see is that his lawyers persuade most Americans that Trump was innocent.

I can't see how they can do that because the evidence of guilt is overwhelming (see my timeline)

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