Thread by @gillsterein

This is important. Don't buy into the narrative that we somehow "need" Elizabeth Warren in a brokered convention.

The goal is defeat her early in IA and NH so that Bernie can begin consolidating support as the sole progressive alternative to Joe Biden.

https://twitter.com/JeremyToback/status/1201718816683651072

We know these narratives about "needing Warren" to "combine delegates" are dubious bc Bernie's senior adviser, Jeff Weaver recently said the Sanders campaign anticipates winning on the first ballot.

And Weaver's logic checks out. Read the article.

In fact, delegate analysts paying attention know:

1. The 15% threshold has built-in winnowing effect

2. A brokered convention is extremely rare and highly unlikely

3. Bandwagon effect, voters prioritize candidates capable of winning states and delegates

This caller warned us we will need Warren and argued a brokered convention is unavoidable bc YouGov's model said so.

But YouGov's model ignores bandwagon effect and projects delegates for 22 states in one go -- you don't need a PhD in polling to know it's bullshit.

Lastly, we know Elizabeth Warren did not endorse Bernie Sanders in 2016

We have no reason to believe she will pool delegates with Bernie or endorse him in 2020

And the people pushing this delegate narrative tend to be users with low follower counts -- don't believe them

/done

@scaryfoxx This is a good piece that debunks delegate myths and fear mongering about brokered convention

fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-t…