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I don't know a ton about this pollster and as a new/unknown pollster without trendlines it didn't have ton of influence on our IA poll average. But I do think people are neglecting how close IA remains, both between the top 2 (Bernie/Biden) specifically and the top 4/5 overall.
Iowa winning odds per our model:
Sanders 2-1
Biden 2-1
Buttigieg 6-1
Warren 9-1
Klobuchar 40-1

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-f…
I should note that our model is forecasting the *popular vote after realignment*, one of 3 ways that Iowa will report its vote.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
OK, a slightly stream-of-consciousness, post-Super Bowl Iowa polling thread.

For starters, here is our current polling average, with comparison to 1 week ago / 1 month ago.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
Sanders (along with Klobuchar) has made the biggest gains over the past month. But his trajectory over the past week has been flat, especially if you look at comparisons among the same pollsters. Not necessarily anything to worry about and I'd probably take the over...
Still, there's a fine line between "still peaking as we head into the caucus", "peaked at the right time" & "peaked a little bit too soon" and any of the 3 are at least plausible. Especially if you consider house effects; live polls are more mixed for Bernie than the online ones.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Iowa polling average with YouGov + DFP/Civiqs added, with comparison to one week ago (last Sunday).

Sanders 22.4 (unchanged)
Biden 21.8 (-0.5)
Buttigieg 15.8 (-1.2)
Warren 14.4 (+0.3)
Klobuchar 9.5 (+0.8)
Yang 3.6 (+0.6)
Steyer 3.4 (+0.5)

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
FWIW, especially with the Selzer poll getting killed, this is a pretty online-heavy mix of polls, and the online polls have generally been friendlier to Sanders and less friendly to Biden than live polls. So our house effects adjustment has some influence here.
Sure would have been nice to know what the Selzer poll said, the last version of which was pretty good for Bernie!
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The three sort of x-factors in going from polling to the final result in Iowa are:

1) Ground game
2) Second choices / realignment
3) Votes to delegates ratio (helps candidates with rural support)
Generally speaking I'd expect Buttigieg, Warren and Sanders to get help from No. 1.

No. 2 is maybe the hardest to say—and probably the most important—but generally Warren and Buttigieg are helped most by 2nd choice support.

No. 3 likely helps Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Biden.
Overall, then, I have the 3rd and 4th place candidates (Buttigieg/Warren) being helped more than 1 and 2 (Bernie/Biden) by these factors. So that's a reason to still treat Iowa as a 4-way (at least) race.
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