Sobering report. Standard epidemiological protocol: Isolate virus; contact-tracing & testing of ppl; Quarantine infected #Coronavirus must be seen in terms of State Capacity & Public Health axis. Pointless along authoritarian-democratic axis when set of things done is similar.
Global Cooperation between virologists, health workers thru WHO & China's & US CDC has been a shining example to humanity. Important to take a step back and remember that we are in a forever war w microbes. Many more of them than us... #coronavirus
Fantastic resource: interactive map of #coronavirus infections and deaths around the world. Data from CDCs/WHO.
Created by Center for Systems Science & Engineering, John Hopkins. Updated daily.
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
Created by Center for Systems Science & Engineering, John Hopkins. Updated daily.
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
Constraining transport to buy time for CDC is vital. Bar-yam/Taleb on Precautionary principal: It will be costly for ppl, China,🌍economy in the short run. But failing to do so will eventually cost everything. As w exponential stock of CO2 & climate action.
2 weeks after lockdown of cities, rate of new infections slow down. Emergency measures to control outbreak have worked. Whew! gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
Rate of new infections slow down even further. Thank emergency measures to control outbreak. For the first time in weeks public health ppl are breathing again. who.int/dg/speeches/de…
Containing coronavirus has been nothing short of a war-effort. Thread on extraordinary times, extraordinary measures.
Xi's speech on CCP's war-effort to contain virus is a world-historical document. No aspect of technology, local-centre politics, economy, social control left unadressed. Even 5G makes an appearance! Each sentence a Rorschach test... xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-…
translate.google.com/translate?sl=z…
translate.google.com/translate?sl=z…
Quarantine has been epidemiological protocol since Renaissance Italy put contagious ships on 40 days of isolation. How to do it in a modern economy where risk of ppl preemptively fleeing lockdown orders is large? Thus spreading it further, faster. Secrecy? translate.google.com/translate?sl=z…
Fascinating, brilliant essay on Coronavirus in the web of life. chuangcn.org/2020/02/social…
Its turtles all the way down.
Its politics all the way down ie what a system chooses or not chooses to prioritize.
Its politics all the way down ie what a system chooses or not chooses to prioritize.
"The first thing is, they said testing is free, treatment is free. Right now, there are huge barriers in the West. You can get tested, but then you might be negative & have to foot the bill. In China,they realized those were barriers to people seeking care"vox.com/2020/3/2/21161…
Any country —large or small, poor or rich— can contain an epidemic if they prioritize it. Nigeria contained Ebola in 2014 within months thru contact-tracing. If a country can hunt ppl to the ends of the earth w GPS guided drones, it can contain an outbreak
Singapore's quality of transparent information from Health Ministry is just excellent. "The cost of the scare is worse than the disease itself, so it [is] important for our leaders to be rational and communicate well” wuhanvirus.sg
That Diamond Princess "quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus. Many variables normally impossible to control are controlled". It had 3,711 people on board, 705 tested positive & just six deaths. ht @jeremyfaust slate.com/technology/202…
For those who thought quarantining Wuhan was just an authoritarian overreaction - Italy extends quarantine to entire country. It was always about public health and state capacity. China bought us time (the month of Feb) that was squandered outside Asia ft.com/content/21d94d…
Exponential growth on semi-logarithmic plot is a straight line. So these show China& SKorea success in slowing spread from what would have happened w/out public counter-measures. Else health systems overload in days & ppl die of other causes not just covid
A dispatch from the front lines in Seattle - America's ground zero. Virologists working around the clock to diagnose cases & reveal routes of transmission. Public health ppl have been alarmed since COVID19 overwhelmed China in Jan and raced to buy time. nature.com/articles/d4158…
The Demand for Inpatient & ICU Beds for #COVID19 in US - "Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on Jan 23, the # of seriously ill COVID-19 patients continued to rise,exceeding local hospitalization & ICU capacities for at least a month" ht @mlipsitch @ruoranepi dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42599…
Priority everywhere isnt only social distancing but increasing # of ICU beds & ventilators. Surge of hospitalized ppl sadly inevitable. Patients require ICU to survive but only so many ICU beds. Lifting those two constraints means less Emergency Triage
Testing is severely bottlenecked in US. CDC Director Redfield isn't confident that US labs have an adequate stock of the RNA extraction kits used to extract genetic material from any virus in a patient’s sample. No RNA extraction, no PCR, no 1M tests/wk politico.com/news/2020/03/1…
Its no longer normal time but timescale set by virus. In 'viral time' each day matters ie #FlattenTheCurve so medical systems don't overload. But 3 bottlenecks -- ICU beds,Ventilators,RNA extraction kits for PCR tests --remain. ↗️Beds easier, but ↗️latter 2 are global public good
China isn't out of the woods, but it developed production capacity & expertise since January. In desperate straits, Italy asked China & got 10,000 pulmonary ventilators. G20 countries should organize ICU beds, ventilators & RNA exraction kits for testing. vice.com/en_us/article/…
In a radically new 21stC crisis but a mid-20thC analogy —the Berlin airlift. Replace milk & gasoline from US to Berlin with ventilators & RNA extraction kits from China to Rest of the World. And airlifting physicians who operate ventilators.Thats the real blockage in 'viral time'
In 'viral time' where each day matters & hospitalizations surge everywhere its only a matter of days/weeks before there are Seattle Airlifts, Seoul Airlifts, London Airlifts. Almost no other solution to the physical problem of pandemic provisions.
In viral time, delay is extraordinarily costly. It wasn't about narratives (flu or not! lockdowns! authoritarians!) or whether case-fatality-ratio was a single #. It was about 𝘥𝘺𝘯𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘤𝘴. Production could have ramped up in Jan & Feb. It still can.
Seattle Airlifts incoming. "Pandemic we face today cannot be resolved by any individual country...can't beat this virus until we share resources, our knowhow & hard-earned lessons" - Alibaba's Jack Ma to increase US testing (after Italy, Iran) & PPE 10X.
Finally Europe searches for ventilators as cases surge. Italy asked its only ventilator maker to 4X mo. production, deploying armed forces...Germany orders 10,000 ventilators from a domestic supplier. In US, Defense Production Act. ft.com/content/5a2ffc…
Excellent presentation on learning from pandemic response. Practical recommendations to govt officials as they start to mobilize & requisition sites. Family transmission is common; centralized quarantine is critical. ht @XihongLin drive.google.com/file/d/14tGJF9…
Acute necessity of building temporary hospitals ala Wuhan/Lombardy. With schools, gyms, hotels, airports shutting down many can be repurposed as centralized quarantine facilities. ht @XihongLin @HarvardBiostats
drive.google.com/file/d/14tGJF9…
drive.google.com/file/d/14tGJF9…
Does anybody know whether this plane carrying critical supplies is landing on the West or East coast? Seattle perhaps but could be LA, Boston, NYC.
"Ma's donation comes as health workers across the U.S. continue to report difficulties getting ahold of the COVID-19 tests they need, and as many voice concerns about the availability of protective gear for front-line health care workers." cbsnews.com/news/jack-ma-c…
UK moves to Asian model:"Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK &US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over" ht @MRC_Outbreak imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
Sadly more such events as shortage of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) in US. Healthcare workers in contact w cases & susceptible subjects need more protective suits, goggles, caps, masks & gloves. ht @XihongLin @HarvardBiostats hsph.me/27v
Europe is finally on 'Viral Time' after waiting for so long that there were more cases than Wuhan at its peak in Feb. Saving lives finally takes priority over saving economy. Dizzying actions in just the past 24h!
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Hospitals are creatively adapting to shortages (until supplies come), limiting visitors & non-urgent patients towards tele-medicine. Moving clinicians to COVID treatment is tough. Dispatch from San Francisco⬇️
First plane of masks&tests from China arrive in US w little fanfare. In EU von der Leyen: “China hasn't forgotten that in Jan, when it was the centre of the virus outbreak, EU helped...Today we are the centre &we need PPE ourselves"
dailymemphian.com/article/11756/…
ft.com/content/186a92…
dailymemphian.com/article/11756/…
ft.com/content/186a92…
Different countries are developing the necessary rhetoric to accept critical supplies from China until domestic production is ramped up. Could come under strain as covid returns to Asia via imported cases from Europe & US hotspots.
Key to interdependence in 'viral time' (1) no country can cope with sudden surge alone (2) no such thing as containment in 1 country. "According to official data, China IMPORTED 56 million respirators & masks in the 1st week after Jan lockdown of Wuhan"
If you live or work in any college/university town, consider circulating this urgent practical message from Tufts university president in Boston. @yaneerbaryam @zeynep bostonglobe.com/2020/03/18/opi…
How soon before the hi-organizational part of the American State — the Military — enters to fill dire hospital shortages? It remains the Industrial planning State within the State along w a massive logistics & supply chain reach. dla.mil/TroopSupport/M…
A shortage of Swabs (glorified Q-tips) also limit US testing. An Italian MNC is manufacturing them at speed but Fedex cargo planes are disrupted. Enter: US military transport airlifts. Just as Ma's 🇨🇳donation, all land in Memphis. businessinsider.com/air-force-flew…
Places now aware of outbreaks that started weeks ago. "We believe that intl seeding events started to occur in mid-Jan. Thus we have a critical~10 wks from then to late-March to contain these nascent outbreaks before they become sizable"-Trevor Bedford,Feb nextstrain.org/narratives/nco…
"No one wanted to say what has now become clear: Feb was our chance...We lost that entire month...we now live in a new era of work stoppages, overwhelmed hospitals, dead elders, & a wrecked economy" #viraltime seen thru virologists Chu & Bedford's eyes theatlantic.com/health/archive…
"Lockdown+mitigation in Wuhan helped reducing R from 3.8 to 1.25 but not good enough. Centralized quarantine + universal screening further helped reduce R to 0.3" - @XihongLin @HarvardBiostats
slides: docs.google.com/presentation/d…
talk:
opmed.doximity.com/articles/what-…
slides: docs.google.com/presentation/d…
talk:
opmed.doximity.com/articles/what-…
It took almost three months (until March 6) to reach 100,000 cases of COVID-19 in the world. Another 11 days (March 17) to get to 200,000. Then just 4 days to get to 300,000 cases yesterday (March 21). #viraltime
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
We would have been much better prepared if everyone had read & acted on WHO's Feb 24th fact-finding report. Effective interventions, the ICU surge that comes for weeks after cases peak, healthcare workers attrition, PPE... who.int/docs/default-s…
In #viraltime, urgency of Testing Kits + Ventilators + PPE form a parallel medical "swap line" from E Asia to Rest of the World like Fed's $ ones. Airlifts too decide who lives & who dies; they too are contested geopolitically, nationally & subnationally
Recommendations from ethicists on how to handle life-and-death decisions in absence of sufficient equipment and supplies: "Fair Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources in the Time of #Covid19". Scarcity has cascading effect on hospital services used by all.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
"China had an oversupply, so we bought 1255 FDA-approved ResMed, Philips & Medtronic ventilators on Friday night & airshipped them to LA."
#Viraltime medical airlifts from East Asia to US are inevitable, urgent yet politically flying under radar. usatoday.com/story/money/ca…
#Viraltime medical airlifts from East Asia to US are inevitable, urgent yet politically flying under radar. usatoday.com/story/money/ca…
Serological tests for antibodies to the virus (once ironed out) will change the labour market. Those people could become frontline healthcare workers, plasma donors, and essential functions without fearing reinfection.
wired.co.uk/article/uk-cor…
wired.co.uk/article/uk-cor…
"US urging foreign countries to ramp up production of masks, ventilators, body bags, and seeking to buy any quantities they can spare"
America First meets #ViralTime and gets urgency of need to purchase critical supplies from those who make it @njtmulder nbcnews.com/politics/white…
America First meets #ViralTime and gets urgency of need to purchase critical supplies from those who make it @njtmulder nbcnews.com/politics/white…
US cables embassies yesterday to emphasize that it is facing “historic surge in patients seeking care... No country can fight COVID-19 alone”. Politics of Medical airlifts from E Asia to Rest of World as explosively geopolitical as Fed's dollar swaplines. nbcnews.com/politics/white…
Microbes break Modernity's fiction of Nature vs Economy vs Society. They shape us; we shape them.
"The earth is a unity for influenza A virus in a manner not yet found for probably any other parasite" (Hope-Simpson,1979).
L:historicalclimatology.com/interviews/a-c…
R:eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2…
"The earth is a unity for influenza A virus in a manner not yet found for probably any other parasite" (Hope-Simpson,1979).
L:historicalclimatology.com/interviews/a-c…
R:eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2…
Excellent info on why & how masks are so effective. Needs to be a social norm change esp In hotspots with so many asymptomatic carriers. ht @linseymarr Virgina Tech researchers pull together essentials of viral airborne transmission.
drive.google.com/file/d/1P9tBF-…
drive.google.com/file/d/1P9tBF-…
Pandemic boomerang. China hectored countries in Feb when they were restricting flights but now does the same in March. Just one flight per week per country. With exploding cases in US & EU, expect Asian countries to begin slew of travel restrictions soon. straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia…
What accounts for Trump's U-turn from blaming China to praising China?
Only a guess: the urgency of airlifting provisions (ventilators+PPE+tests) as US hospitalizations surge & needs become desperate in #viraltime.
Only a guess: the urgency of airlifting provisions (ventilators+PPE+tests) as US hospitalizations surge & needs become desperate in #viraltime.
"War-economic production is often conceived of as a natl enterprise. But most war economies in the 20thC were deeply international in their supply lines. The medical mobilization against COVID-19 will have to be similarly global" ht @njtmulder #viraltime foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/26/the…
Medical Airlifts now nonstop in #viraltime @njtmulder. A trickle turns into a flood. Irelands' "Aer Lingus to fly Airbus A330 planes to China 60 times to collect medical supplies"
Away from the sound & fury of politics, medical & scientific workers do what homo sapiens do - learn from each others experience & adapt what works. There's little time to strut and fret. We don't make the time. The virus makes the time. #viraltime statnews.com/2020/03/24/cov…
"We find ourselves afraid and lost...caught off-guard by an unexpected, turbulent storm. We have realized that we are on the same boat, all of us fragile and disoriented ... all of us called to row together, each of us in need of comforting the other." vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2…
George Gao, head of China's CDC, who incidentally specialises in lipid envelope viruses, recommends universal mask wearing. Interview is interesting for frank answers on mis-steps & corrections. sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/n…
"A plane from Shanghai arrived at JFK Airport in New York Sunday morning carrying an extraordinary load: 12 million gloves, 130,000 N-95 masks, 1.7 million surgical masks, 50,000 gowns, 130,000 hand sanitizer units, and 36,000 thermometers." #viraltime
axios.com/coronavirus-ai…
axios.com/coronavirus-ai…
The flight is the dramatic start of what might end up being the largest government-led airlift of emergency medical supplies into the US. "We have essentially a flight a day, mostly from Asia" for the next few weeks. #viraltime. axios.com/coronavirus-ai…
FEMA's 2nd "Air Bridge" flight delivers medical supplies from Shanghai to America's 2nd city- Chicago. The next 20 odd flights will be allocated to hospitals across US based on how quickly they run out of N-95 respirators, surgical masks, gloves and gowns. fema.gov/news-release/2…
Russian Cargo Plane With Medical Supplies Lands in New York. The plane is carrying “60 tons of medical equipment, ventilators, masks & other protection gear.”
defenseone.com/politics/2020/…
defenseone.com/politics/2020/…
19thC Cholera from Calcutta, out to Bombay's port,then out to rest of the world on ships. Led to greatest public health intervention ever—Clean water piped into homes, shit piped out —& total redesign of cities.
States make Disease; Disease makes the State academia.edu/2436728/The_Un…
States make Disease; Disease makes the State academia.edu/2436728/The_Un…
National Academy of Sciences issues rapid expert consultation to White House on bioaerosol spread of Covid19. Concludes virus can spread via normal breathing & on various droplet surfaces. #masksforall nap.edu/read/25769/cha…
If you haven't been reading these daily dispatches from the frontlines of hospitals in New york, please do. Scintillating & deeply human. columbiasurgery.org/news/covid-19-…
Remember that testing was delayed by shortage of specialty swabs made by a single Italian MNC? The US Air Force's Air Mobility Command has been busy. "Since March 16, C-17s have delivered three and a half million swabs on seven missions.. #viraltime defense.gov/Explore/News/A…
To many in the collaborative scientific world, the incoherence of US's catastrophic public health response with its excellent biomedical labs is acute. Vaccine R&D could play as important a biopolitical role as Fed's financial geopolitics ht @adam_tooze
foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01/us-…
foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01/us-…
Nice piece on global R&D of multiple vaccine in parallel. The amount of funding --- for what may amount to hundreds of millions of lives in 1-2 years -- sounds trivial when compared to Disney's 2019 revenue of $70B. science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64…
Rapprochement?
US Ambassador - "No one country can fight this battle alone...our 2 countries will...find ways to jointly cooperate to combat this common enemy that threatens the lives of all of us" china.usembassy-china.org.cn/ambassador-bra…
China Amb: "Time for solidarity" nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opi…
US Ambassador - "No one country can fight this battle alone...our 2 countries will...find ways to jointly cooperate to combat this common enemy that threatens the lives of all of us" china.usembassy-china.org.cn/ambassador-bra…
China Amb: "Time for solidarity" nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opi…
Going back to Xi's Feb 3rd speech and what jumps out is its sense that 𝙖𝙡𝙡 could be lost. That all that is solid could melt into air. The most important thing that has lacked in the West, compared to East Asia, is fear. #viraltime
Michael Pettis thread on the scenes in Beijing: "The social terror and widespread feelings of gloom and pessimism that were common a 5-6 weeks ago in China have evaporated, and will evaporate soon enough in in most other countries".
People in Wuhan out in the streets after so long cooped inside; 76 days since the lockdown began on January 23. A non-viral ode to the city:
The Wuhan I Know — Laura Gao lauragao.com/wuhan
The Wuhan I Know — Laura Gao lauragao.com/wuhan
“Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” These are some deep truths of science and especially now. Thanks @yaneerbaryam
Weeks after US' bilateral deal, Beijing airlift comes to Berlin. Merkel strikes deal with Xi for German airlift to secure medical supplies from China. #viraltime wsj.com/articles/as-co…
Most of us have a general sense that the Columbian exchange was the most significant crossover event in history. Empire, ecology & economy were fused in ways scarcely believable. Follow (& contribute!) to @natterjee's #10plagues
Arundhati Roy reads from her haunting new essay ”The Pandemic is a Portal”.
We long for a return to 'Normality'. We try to stitch our future to our past...& refuse a chance to rethink the Doomsday machine we have built for ourselves
ft.com/content/10d8f5…
We long for a return to 'Normality'. We try to stitch our future to our past...& refuse a chance to rethink the Doomsday machine we have built for ourselves
ft.com/content/10d8f5…
China bought PPE/vents etc in Jan from everyone. It blocked exports; then ramped up production. US & European companies and charities sent it to them at hour of its greatest need. Both moral & self-interest to contain in 1 country. washingtonpost.com/health/us-sent…
The chaos of numbers obscures a simple fact: "Capitalist globalization now appears to be biologically unsustainable in the absence of a truly international public-health infrastructure".
ht Mike Davis (who has literally written the book on pandemics.) newleftreview.org/issues/II122/a…
ht Mike Davis (who has literally written the book on pandemics.) newleftreview.org/issues/II122/a…
The first flight carrying Medical supplies from Shanghai landed in NYC on March 29th.
Since then, SIXTY-EIGHT flights nonstop from Asia carrying more than 57 million N-95 masks & 11,000 ventilators have landed across US #viraltime
fema.gov/media-library-…
Since then, SIXTY-EIGHT flights nonstop from Asia carrying more than 57 million N-95 masks & 11,000 ventilators have landed across US #viraltime
fema.gov/media-library-…
Reported US coronavirus deaths:
Feb. 21: 0 deaths
Mar. 21: 323 deaths
Apr. 21: 45,042 deaths
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
Feb. 21: 0 deaths
Mar. 21: 323 deaths
Apr. 21: 45,042 deaths
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
"A purified inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus vaccine candidate confers complete protection in non-human primates [rhesus macaques] against SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating worldwide"- 🇨🇳Sinovac
Fingers crossed for Clinical trials! clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
Fingers crossed for Clinical trials! clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
US declared coronavirus a national emergency on Mar 14th. Since then
Mar. 14th: 14 deaths
Apr. 14: 25,000 deaths
Apr. 24: 50,000 deaths
coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
Chilling graphic nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Mar. 14th: 14 deaths
Apr. 14: 25,000 deaths
Apr. 24: 50,000 deaths
coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
Chilling graphic nymag.com/intelligencer/…
"Source said they are cargo flights carrying medical supplies.
5-6 flights each day from Beijing to New York
4 flights each day from Beijing to Los Angeles
These "China-US Express" flights are scheduled everyday at least in the next 3 days." #viraltime
5-6 flights each day from Beijing to New York
4 flights each day from Beijing to Los Angeles
These "China-US Express" flights are scheduled everyday at least in the next 3 days." #viraltime
Peaks & decline as happened in China or S Korea, didn't just happen. We have to actually do what they did. We can stop the virus. Thread.
Almost at 58,220 covid US deaths. Weekly death tolls match yearly tolls during Vietnam war. Last week was 1968.
Meanwhile, from the first case in January, Hanoi has taken no chances. Vietnam has had ~300 cases and no deaths. Fig ht @bwbensonjr. @nickturse theintercept.com/2020/04/27/in-…
Meanwhile, from the first case in January, Hanoi has taken no chances. Vietnam has had ~300 cases and no deaths. Fig ht @bwbensonjr. @nickturse theintercept.com/2020/04/27/in-…
2020 US Elections will shift blame on China.
GOP issues talking points to politicians -"This is China's fault...Because China lied about the extent of the virus, our public health officials acted late".
Biden's ad: "Trump rolled over for the Chinese" newsweek.com/dont-defend-tr…
GOP issues talking points to politicians -"This is China's fault...Because China lied about the extent of the virus, our public health officials acted late".
Biden's ad: "Trump rolled over for the Chinese" newsweek.com/dont-defend-tr…
Trump's 'Wuhan virus' creates a primitive space. Its a civilization vs nature trope deployed to "exonerate liberal-capitalist civilization, & its imperatives of technical, & economic power, denying its share of complicity". ctjournal.org/2020/04/29/in-…
LEGO propaganda is funnier than just plastering the word February over and over again.
Plateau of 1000s of infections & deaths a day is not acceptable. Hunkering down & hoping for 'testing testing testing' is not a strategy. Eradication is the goal. To do that, cases must be found, isolated, and their contacts traced & isolated comfortably. newyorker.com/science/medica…
The first flight carrying Medical supplies from Shanghai landed in NYC on 29th Mar. Since then, 117 flights nonstop, largely from Asia, have landed.
Oddly, little reporting on largest govt-led airlift in US history. #viraltime
fema.gov/media-library/…
Oddly, little reporting on largest govt-led airlift in US history. #viraltime
fema.gov/media-library/…
"Factors associated with COVID-19 hospital deaths from e-health records of 17 million adult NHS patients". Hazard ratios are adjusted for covariates, esp age & gender, so throw up surprises... medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
"You have a 30% chance of dying if you end up in a British hospital with COVID-19. That’s about the same overall mortality rate as for Ebola in 2014 in W Africa.
They got me, I've devoted my life to fighting viruses & finally, they get their revenge" sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/f…
They got me, I've devoted my life to fighting viruses & finally, they get their revenge" sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/f…
States that eradicated virus did it by community participation. Social democracy is about collectively solving new problems. "Taming a pandemic & rapidly building out a massive safety net is fundamentally about the relation of the state to its citizens" thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a…
My go to for past few weeks has been @youyanggu's ML model. It's projections have been remarkably accurate for #COVID19 in 40 countries & US states. Brazil, India, Mexico, Canada & Russia are surging next couple months. covid19-projections.com
S Korea doesn't do #FlattenTheCurve defeatism. Both State & society learnt from 2015's MERS outbreak to #StampItOut. This is what Test+Trace+Isolate alongside disease surveillance at border looks like to keep new cases down. Thread⬇
A stunning stat: More reported covid deaths in New York than ALL of Asia.
If you tell ppl in US/EU that "we have 1 of the worst responses of any country" most refuse to believe it. Idea of a Sri Lanka or Vietnam doing better doesn't fit. ht @Comparativist ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-…
If you tell ppl in US/EU that "we have 1 of the worst responses of any country" most refuse to believe it. Idea of a Sri Lanka or Vietnam doing better doesn't fit. ht @Comparativist ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-…
The UK had developed a test as early as 10 January. It was contact tracing in February. But what went wrong in pursuing the Test + Trace + Isolate strategy? Substantial inquiry by Lawrence Freedman (of Chilcot Report). iiss.org/-/media/iiss/h…
One reason why UK&US didnt pursue #TestTraceIsolate was belief that effort reqd would be overrun i.e futile. It looked at E Asia w its 1000s of teams of epidemiologists, tracing 1000s of contacts a day, thorough isolation in hotels w follow-up, & balked. iiss.org/-/media/iiss/h…
There is no shortcut to #TestTraceIsolate state capacity. UK/US switch in March from eradicating to mitigating virus was defeatist. Ppl won't go back to work without TTI. And when 2nd wave comes, the lockdown will be revealed insufficient. ht @devisridhar theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
In Hong Kong, it wasn't state capacity, but bottom-up civic mobilization w 2003 SARS burnt into collective memory, that contained Covid. "Hong Kong’s health authorities openly credited the near-universal mask wearing among the people for avoiding a surge"
Even after terrible past 3 months, just 5% of France has been infected (~10% around Paris). 90-95% are still naive to the virus and therefore fuel for fires of 2nd wave. There is no herd immunity shortcut to #TestTraceIsolate public health infrastructure.
It shouldn't still be a surprise, but age & gender conditional probabilities of infection, hospitalization & death is so stark. In France, 3.6% of infected go to hospital. Young recover after illness (sometimes debilitating);10% of elderly die, men more so science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
"On 20 January,KK Shailaja phoned one of her deputies. She had read online about a dangerous new virus spreading in China.“Will it come to us?” she asked. “Definitely, Madam”. And so the health minister of the Indian state of Kerala began her preparations" theguardian.com/world/2020/may…
Delay is extremely costly in an exponential outbreak. @Yaneerbaryam @normonics @nntaleb urged social distancing & travel restrictions on January 26th. Anything you do early sounds alarmist; anything late, horribly insufficient. academia.edu/41743064/Syste…
"If you read the western press, truly successful countries like Vietnam, South Korea, & Taiwan are only held up as oriental curiosities, never as just human nations that could be learned from. They might as well be on Mars" ht Indi Samarajiva medium.com/@indica/german…
The country has decided its open again. The virus has decided it has prey again. Good time to revisit classic Predator-Prey model ht @kjhealy @Kumar_EconIneq
Real time data on mobilty, commutes & contacts covid19.gleamproject.org/mobility
Real time data on mobilty, commutes & contacts covid19.gleamproject.org/mobility
E Asian CDC public health guidance to prevent outbreaks: Avoid the 3C's
1. Closed spaces with poor ventilation 2. Crowded places with many ppl nearby 3. Close-contact settings w loud vocalization
mhlw.go.jp/content/109000…
1. Closed spaces with poor ventilation 2. Crowded places with many ppl nearby 3. Close-contact settings w loud vocalization
mhlw.go.jp/content/109000…
Xi's speech at the 73th World Health Assembly. Highlights: ⬇️
Cheap vaccines; set up pan-Africa CDC; Debt service suspension; global medical stockpiles; assessment of what went wrong by WHO after epidemic is suppressed.
translate.google.com/translate?hl=&…
Cheap vaccines; set up pan-Africa CDC; Debt service suspension; global medical stockpiles; assessment of what went wrong by WHO after epidemic is suppressed.
translate.google.com/translate?hl=&…
Whether Corona or Coal, its becoming more & more clear, that the fate of the world turns on the China Question. How would things be now if epidemic control strategy in Xi's pivotal February 3rd speech was widely read & acted upon in other countries? translate.google.com/translate?sl=z…
Amazing that so many countries -- large & small, poor & rich -- have built their #TestTraceIsolate system alongside border surveillance to nearly stop the virus. 45 and counting! ht @yaneerbaryam @EndCoronavirus endcoronavirus.org/countries
Put this out on Mar 25th when corona was surging and going to hell in a handbasket in so many places & got pushback. Now, nearly 50 countries have beat back the virus with focused #TestTraceIsolate effort. endcoronavirus.org/countries
“The world has come into this moment with divisions among its great powers& incompetence at the highest levels of government of terrifying proportions. We will pass through this, but into what?”
Martin wolf questions US/UK ability to mimic E Asian states. ft.com/content/d5f05b…
Martin wolf questions US/UK ability to mimic E Asian states. ft.com/content/d5f05b…
The first flight carrying Medical supplies from Shanghai landed in NYC on 29th Mar. Since then, 151 flights nonstop, largely from Asia, have landed. fema.gov/media-library/…
Oddly, little reporting on largest govt-led airlift in US history. #viraltime
Oddly, little reporting on largest govt-led airlift in US history. #viraltime
Even after terrible 3 months, w over 200K lives in Europe, just ~5% have been infected (higher in large cities). 90-95% are still naive to virus. There is no deadly herd immunity shortcut to building #TestTraceIsolate health system. euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
Delayed action -> virus plateaus in US/EU at horribly high levels
Brazil, Mexico, India, Russia, S Africa have surging infections. Their path without #TestTraceIsolate is 10 TIMES more deaths by August.
Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Mumbai: Time to act is now.
covid19-projections.com/#view-projecti…
Brazil, Mexico, India, Russia, S Africa have surging infections. Their path without #TestTraceIsolate is 10 TIMES more deaths by August.
Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Mumbai: Time to act is now.
covid19-projections.com/#view-projecti…
Latin America accounted a third of cases reported this week. São Paulo, the largest city in Brazil & the W Hemisphere, is sliding to the catastrophe of NYC.
India's mad, bad & dangerous lockdowns began March 24th. Modi ignored scientists who advised #TestTraceIsolate ala Kerala. Ignored bureaucrats who advised PDS foodgrains for all in cities regardless of papers. Thread on cascading economic & health crisis⬇️
"If we locked down 1 week later,we would have had about a sixfold increase in infected cases & a 16-fold increase in deaths. If we locked down 4 weeks later, the number jumps to over 30 million infected cases,& over 3 million deaths" #viraltime @adam_tooze sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/h…
In an exponential outbreak, timescale is set not by us but by the virus' generation time or time btw h-to-h infections. Time has ticked ferociously fast since December. In #viraltime, delay, from unknown to known, known to reaction, is extremely costly sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/h…
Delay in US was due to governance. Specifically, political veto points in NYC and Seattle. Powerful organized actors in Seattle (Boeing, Amazon,unions, schools) got on board early with public health depts lockdown & #TestTraceIsolate. Those in NYC didn't. newyorker.com/magazine/2020/…
Virologist @trvrb in Seattle whose Jan post was like a bomb: "This genomic data represented one of the 1st...indications of sustained epidemic spread. As this became clear to me, I spent the week of Jan 20 alerting every public health official" #viraltime
bedford.io/blog/genomic-e…
bedford.io/blog/genomic-e…
New York Times memoriam front page for May 24 as US death toll 100,000
"There is a problem with numbers: They are the same whether counting grains of sand, or people. Complexity is a better measure. Each person is an incredibly complex and irreplaceable treasure." - @yaneerbaryam
"There is a problem with numbers: They are the same whether counting grains of sand, or people. Complexity is a better measure. Each person is an incredibly complex and irreplaceable treasure." - @yaneerbaryam
Nice thread on how Japan's cluster response team formed 3C rule:
Avoid:
1. Closed spaces with poor ventilation
2. Crowded places
3. Close-contact settings w loud vocalization
Role of rapid learning & citizens' changed behavior.
mhlw.go.jp/content/109000…
Avoid:
1. Closed spaces with poor ventilation
2. Crowded places
3. Close-contact settings w loud vocalization
Role of rapid learning & citizens' changed behavior.
mhlw.go.jp/content/109000…
New York was a singular catastrophe — 1 in 400 ppl alive at beginning of outbreak in Feb were dead by May.
If a Megacity allows virus to seed; its difficult to eradicate. Some succeeded (Shanghai,Tokyo). Will Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Mumbai? Fig ht @thattai covid19-projections.com/#rest-of-world…
If a Megacity allows virus to seed; its difficult to eradicate. Some succeeded (Shanghai,Tokyo). Will Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Mumbai? Fig ht @thattai covid19-projections.com/#rest-of-world…
Such an epic interview. Who knew China already has 4 to 5 vaccines under development? Also, shade on TSA & NSA 😂. There's a reason its gone viral! sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/h…
It took almost 3 months (March 6) to reach 100,000 cases of COVID-19 in the world.
2nd April: 1 million.
2nd May: 3 million.
28th May, today: 5.7 million cases
This is not over, not by a long shot.
#viraltime coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html ⬇️
2nd April: 1 million.
2nd May: 3 million.
28th May, today: 5.7 million cases
This is not over, not by a long shot.
#viraltime coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html ⬇️
The UK has suffered the highest rate of deaths from the pandemic. The timing of lockdowns relative to spread of the virus had the largest effect on the total level of excess deaths. #viraltime
ft.com/content/6b4c78…
Delay & Deprivation. ht @policytensor policytensor.com/2020/05/08/rac…
ft.com/content/6b4c78…
Delay & Deprivation. ht @policytensor policytensor.com/2020/05/08/rac…
Let’s be clear. Covid isn't over. Forty odd countries have it contained
endcoronavirus.org/countries
But many haven't brought R down. In next 90 days, an accurate model projects ANOTHER
100K deaths in US
170K in Brazil
125K in Mexico
55K in India
25K in Peru
covid19-projections.com/#rest-of-world…
endcoronavirus.org/countries
But many haven't brought R down. In next 90 days, an accurate model projects ANOTHER
100K deaths in US
170K in Brazil
125K in Mexico
55K in India
25K in Peru
covid19-projections.com/#rest-of-world…
Iran's 2nd wave a month after reopening from economic pressures. Fewer ppl physical distancing, travel up.
"People seem to think the coronavirus is over.The outbreak is not over yet & at any moment it may come back stronger than before" - Health minister
theguardian.com/world/2020/jun…
"People seem to think the coronavirus is over.The outbreak is not over yet & at any moment it may come back stronger than before" - Health minister
theguardian.com/world/2020/jun…
Northeast states in US have contained the virus. But failure to do #TestTraceIsolate or restrict transport means that outbreak is now spreading fast in south & west. At ~1000 deaths/day on course to 200,000 deaths in next 100 days covid19-projections.com/#us-summary
'Americans may wish the virus to be gone...Businesses are reopening. Protests are erupting nationwide. But the virus isn’t done with us.' R is still around 1, and the US remains on course to double deaths in 3 months to 200,000. theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
#FlattenTheCurve was the wrong goal, as US now finds. It focused attention on managing hospital inflow. Any country not actively trying to 𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘦 the virus within next 2-3 months has set themselves on course of US disaster. ht @Comparativist covid19.osinthk.org/2020/04/29/fiv…
The first flight carrying Medical supplies from Shanghai landed in NYC on March 29th.
Since then, 200 flights, almost three a day,nonstop from Asia, have brought ~ 100 million N-95s, 200M masks & 20,000 ventilators to US #viraltime
fema.gov/media-library/…
Since then, 200 flights, almost three a day,nonstop from Asia, have brought ~ 100 million N-95s, 200M masks & 20,000 ventilators to US #viraltime
fema.gov/media-library/…
"In a globalized world, a deadly disease is one plane ride away" is a true cliche about pandemics. Neither in Europe nor in US was restricting travel or quarantining passengers considered an option in February or even in crucial month of March. Thread⬇️
UK suffered highest rate of deaths from pandemic. Delay is extremely costly in an exponential outbreak. @Yaneerbaryam et al. urged social distancing & travel restrictions on January 26th. UK did neither when it mattered #viraltime
@yaneerbaryam Coronavirus worries of people are cascading ht
@CitizensAdvice
1st phase: flight & travel cancellations; sick pay and what to do if you can’t pay your bills.
2nd: benefits, self-employment, advice if sick.
3rd: housing, relationships. citizensadvice.org.uk/about-us/how-c…
@CitizensAdvice
1st phase: flight & travel cancellations; sick pay and what to do if you can’t pay your bills.
2nd: benefits, self-employment, advice if sick.
3rd: housing, relationships. citizensadvice.org.uk/about-us/how-c…
😢150 days on, basic health guidance on wearing masks & avoiding 3C's (crowds, closed spaces, close contacts w loud vocalization) hasn't reached ppl. Or confused them @zeynep
A physician started asking her patients how they thought they got Covid-19:
facebook.com/nivedita.lakhe…
A physician started asking her patients how they thought they got Covid-19:
facebook.com/nivedita.lakhe…
Xi at World Health Assembly last month: "Vaccine development... when available, will be made a global public good...this will be China's contribution to ensuring vaccine accessibility & affordability in developing countries" politico.com/news/2020/05/1…
Xihong Lin's group has an excellent new tool to track R-in-real-time at a county, state & country level. metrics.covid19-analysis.org
Stark reminder that though the pandemic connects us all; outbreaks (& #TestTraceIsolate controls) are hyperlocal
Stark reminder that though the pandemic connects us all; outbreaks (& #TestTraceIsolate controls) are hyperlocal
Excellent interview w Hitoshi Oshitani, who is architect of Japan's covid strategy of 'Avoid the 3C's' and found overdispersion in superspreader transmission events in real-time. Many of us await papers from his cluster group like a summer blockbuster. japanpolicyforum.jp/diplomacy/pt20…
Latest Oshitani grp on clusters & 3C superspreading events:
18 healthcare facilities
10 facilities such as nursing homes or daycare
10 restaurants/ bars
8 workplaces
7 music events, such as concerts/karaoke parties
5 gyms
2 ceremonial functions
1 airplane
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
18 healthcare facilities
10 facilities such as nursing homes or daycare
10 restaurants/ bars
8 workplaces
7 music events, such as concerts/karaoke parties
5 gyms
2 ceremonial functions
1 airplane
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
RECOVERY trial doing RCTs of treatments shows steroid dexamethasone cuts off hyperactive immune response and decreases risk of deaths in those needing oxygen by 20%; 35% in those on a ventilator.
Its on the shelf & costs pennies - a real breakthrough.
nature.com/articles/d4158…
Its on the shelf & costs pennies - a real breakthrough.
nature.com/articles/d4158…
EU screwed up initially and painfully, slowly, recovered. The US just kept bungling one thing after another. Thread. #viraltime
Crack a window or open a door because virus can float in aerosols and builds up into higher loads indoors. Wear masks indoors; put in higher efficiency filters in building HVACs. Excellent interview ht @kprather88 @DrLaPook
paper science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
paper science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
More than 45 countries — poor & rich, large & small — built #TestTraceIsolate system to nearly stop the virus. ht @yaneerbaryam endcoronavirus.org/countries
Wealth doesn't matter; US failure was due to an incompetent govt and lack of social trust. Thread.
Wealth doesn't matter; US failure was due to an incompetent govt and lack of social trust. Thread.
The pandemic is not over. It's accelerating rapidly in Americas & S Asia giving many countries the same whiplash that Europe & US experienced in March.
18 days of more than 100,000 cases/day; almost 200K new cases today @kakape who.int/docs/default-s…
18 days of more than 100,000 cases/day; almost 200K new cases today @kakape who.int/docs/default-s…
Ppl in these 45+ countries worked together to stop virus. Schools have reopened in Vietnam; Rugby matches in New Zealand; meeting family & friends in Greece...
Ppl could ask their govts – why don't we try to get rid of it altogether?
@ContainmentNow Plan
containmentnu.nl/en/articles/ei…
Ppl could ask their govts – why don't we try to get rid of it altogether?
@ContainmentNow Plan
containmentnu.nl/en/articles/ei…
A useful primer on many types of Testing. The more instantaneous the better so ppl can isolate quickly. Even better to test frequently ppl who aren't showing symptoms but are hi-risk so they avoid infecting others during infectious period. Thread.
Sweden's Herd immunity strategy was premised on 4 claims:
Virus is unstoppable.
Its not that bad.
Just protect elderly from it
Better for Economy than implementing Hammer & Dance strategy.
Each proven suspect (inc economic shock). Nice rundown @tomaspueyo
medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co…
Virus is unstoppable.
Its not that bad.
Just protect elderly from it
Better for Economy than implementing Hammer & Dance strategy.
Each proven suspect (inc economic shock). Nice rundown @tomaspueyo
medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co…
One month later, megacities of Asia & Americas, are hurting. Centralised isolation helped, hospital systems adapted but sobering death toll.
Mexico City, Mumbai , Sao Paulo ~ 10,000 to 20,000 ppl
and Delhi, Karachi, Dhaka, Bogota hurtling in same path.
Mexico City, Mumbai , Sao Paulo ~ 10,000 to 20,000 ppl
and Delhi, Karachi, Dhaka, Bogota hurtling in same path.
Whats will happen in Latin America and S Asian countries over next few months makes my blood run cold. The main difference between ppl right from January has been those who look at current numbers and those who look at trends & urge effective interventions
#LineGoesUp in US! endcoronavirus.org/states
Record surges in Metropolitan regions:
Texas - Houston
California - Los Angeles
Florida - Miami
Arizona- Phoenix
Hospitalizations will increase for next 4-8 weeks but bed capacity can be increased as in NYC
covid19-projections.com/#view-projecti…
Record surges in Metropolitan regions:
Texas - Houston
California - Los Angeles
Florida - Miami
Arizona- Phoenix
Hospitalizations will increase for next 4-8 weeks but bed capacity can be increased as in NYC
covid19-projections.com/#view-projecti…
US should shut down all nonessential activities in the sun-belt states.
The metropolitan regions of Texas, California, Arizona & Florida are hurtling towards disaster of E Coast. Each state's death toll projected to triple by Oct public.tableau.com/profile/peter.…
covid19-projections.com/us-ca
The metropolitan regions of Texas, California, Arizona & Florida are hurtling towards disaster of E Coast. Each state's death toll projected to triple by Oct public.tableau.com/profile/peter.…
covid19-projections.com/us-ca
This may be the most effective presentation of how people spread the virus unknowingly in the US. Its also an effective warning to countries who are only detecting 100s or 1000s of cases each day and think they don't need preventive action. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Less than 24h later, Houston is shutdown. Now do Miami, Jacksonville, Los Angeles, Phoenix & all metro regions that have been in exponential growth (R>1) since June. Each day sooner saves more ppl & buys time for #TestTraceIsolate.
metrics.covid19-analysis.org
metrics.covid19-analysis.org
"Only 3 endings to this story: immunity w/ vaccine, build-up of natural immunity or elimination w/ border control. If a vaccine isn’t available soon & immunity doesn’t last, then elimination is only path." - @devisridhar. How? ⬇️
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Today, 🌍 will cross
10 million cases (we detect roughly 1 in 10 actual infections so closer to 100 million infections globally);
& 0.5 million deaths (IFR has remained solidly ~0.5% since Jan) coronavirus.jhu.edu
If it all reminds you of March ⬇️
10 million cases (we detect roughly 1 in 10 actual infections so closer to 100 million infections globally);
& 0.5 million deaths (IFR has remained solidly ~0.5% since Jan) coronavirus.jhu.edu
If it all reminds you of March ⬇️
Hopeful trends that shouldn't get lost. cebm.net/covid-19/decli…
With virus & unemployment surging in Latin America & in US sunbelt, the crisis in lives of Mexican & hispanic americans is acute. ht @adam_tooze theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Vo' to coronavirus is what Broad Street pump was to Cholera. Contact-tracing and screening *everybody* in the Italian town that's been under quarantine from 23rd Feb showed 2 in 5 people who had the virus were asymptomatic. Confirming #Masks4All rationale.
Remember White House muzzling CDC after Feb's Market drop?
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, Feb 25: Expect community spread. Severe disruption to everyday life
Dr. Anne Schuchat, June 29: We have way too much virus to control pandemic. This is really the beginning
cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc…
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, Feb 25: Expect community spread. Severe disruption to everyday life
Dr. Anne Schuchat, June 29: We have way too much virus to control pandemic. This is really the beginning
cnbc.com/2020/06/29/cdc…
Stunning decline in voters satisfaction with Trump/GOP since April ->worsens Re-election chances. people-press.org/2020/06/30/pub…
Trump's solution? Shift Blame for virus on to China (notwithstanding earlier praise). Timeline of Admins mishandling since 2016: justsecurity.org/69650/timeline…
Trump's solution? Shift Blame for virus on to China (notwithstanding earlier praise). Timeline of Admins mishandling since 2016: justsecurity.org/69650/timeline…
What happened in Texas in just 4 weeks of reopening is a stark reminder of what we've known for 6 months:
(1) virus spreads lightning fast, many asymptomatically
(2) it is deadly
(3) it CAN be stopped
@yaneerbaryam's March Recomm. for Policy still apply assets-global.website-files.com/5e62f57a6f9734…
(1) virus spreads lightning fast, many asymptomatically
(2) it is deadly
(3) it CAN be stopped
@yaneerbaryam's March Recomm. for Policy still apply assets-global.website-files.com/5e62f57a6f9734…
What specifically stops US from inviting China to help with testing? Pooled testing would quickly find all the millions of Americans who are positive & then they can be given a hotel/motel room to isolate. Problem solved in 4 weeks! Prediction for July... voanews.com/covid-19-pande…
Young people aren't getting infected more. They've always been infected. Widespread testing has simply switched on the lights— a classic statistical sampling problem.
@_stah inspects Florida's antibody & deaths data to find no shift in age demographics medium.com/@dblake.mcg/th…
@_stah inspects Florida's antibody & deaths data to find no shift in age demographics medium.com/@dblake.mcg/th…
To the virus, we are nothing but a vast & endless buffet. Sweep away all the the numbers & 'fatality rates'; what changes homo sapiens' behaviour is fear & compassion. Focus on what you can do to prevent suffering. Thread. #viraltime
Lancet Editorial @richardhorton1:
"The multiple and deep wounds to humanity from this pandemic deserve historically unrivalled global political leadership. And yet all we have is silence. How have we fallen so low?"
thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…
"The multiple and deep wounds to humanity from this pandemic deserve historically unrivalled global political leadership. And yet all we have is silence. How have we fallen so low?"
thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…
