The two numbers you have to watch with the 2019ncov are R0, the rate of spread and lethality, the % of patients who will die. This will be expressed as interval estimates.
R0 and lethality will change with human and social terrain and the learning curve.
R0 and lethality will change with human and social terrain and the learning curve.
The confidence intervals will become more precise as we get more data. Our main defense until a vaccine is social adaptation or infection control. The problem is information lag because of incubation and Chinese opacity.
Both the 2019ncov and mankind are changing their responses over time. In an informational sense we are in a race. May the better life form win.
The speed with which the mighty Chinese Communist Party is being savaged is testimony to the principle that survival often belongs not to the muscle-bound but the nimble. If you don't learn you die.
Don't be so confident the West will do better. Until recently the public attention was riveted on Ukraine and Russia. If it's noon in Wuhan what time is it in impeachment mad Washington?
