I also think some of the hype around Bloomberg (14% chance of winning the nomination at prediction markets?!?!) reflects non-rigorous thinking around how primaries work.
We don't know everything. But we do know it's hard to have big surges in the polls unless you win states. (The 2nd best way is debates, which he's not doing.) We also know it's likely at least 1-2 non-Bloom candidates will be perceived as having momentum after the first 4 states.
I can see some reasonable-best-case scenarios where he does "surprisingly" well on Super Tuesday and gains momentum from there. But at that point, ~37% of delegates will already have been chosen. So a majority is quite unlikely, and even a plurality is hard.
