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Iowa polling average with YouGov + DFP/Civiqs added, with comparison to one week ago (last Sunday).

Sanders 22.4 (unchanged)
Biden 21.8 (-0.5)
Buttigieg 15.8 (-1.2)
Warren 14.4 (+0.3)
Klobuchar 9.5 (+0.8)
Yang 3.6 (+0.6)
Steyer 3.4 (+0.5)

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
FWIW, especially with the Selzer poll getting killed, this is a pretty online-heavy mix of polls, and the online polls have generally been friendlier to Sanders and less friendly to Biden than live polls. So our house effects adjustment has some influence here.
Sure would have been nice to know what the Selzer poll said, the last version of which was pretty good for Bernie!
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
All right, so this article gives you a preview of how our model is going to react to Iowa results... once we have enough Iowa results to include them. (It's still off/frozen until then.) fivethirtyeight.com/features/butti…
Just trying to be as honest/transparent as possible: the model will try to guess at the Iowa bounces for each candidate, but these guesses aren't worth much because Iowa was really weird and there are multiple ways to define who won (assuming current results hold).
So while there are some things we *do* know—clearly Iowa was not *good* news for Joe Biden—I'd mostly encourage y'all to take it with a grain of salt for the next few days until we get some post-Iowa polling.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Also, I'm not sure why being at 9% nationally (which is where he is in the averages) is supposed to be so impressive when you need 15% to get delegates.
If you held Super Tuesday today, Bloomberg probably would get over 15% in some states/districts, and accumulate a few dozen delegates. Maybe more than that... 100 or 150 out of the ~1350 delegate available.
That probably does materially increase the chance of a contested convention. But it's not an obvious path to a *Bloomberg* nomination.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If you carefully read both the Buttigieg and Sanders memos, I don't think either campaign is particularly confident that it's going to win Iowa, at least not across all 3 metrics. There is a lot of ambiguity ("at representative precincts") and hedging ("winning the SDE count").
The Buttigieg campaign does seem fairly confident that it's going to win state delegate equivalents (SDEs). That's the most confident claim in either memo. And it's credible since the Bernie numbers also show him doing fairly well in SDE's.
Buttigieg has now released a more detailed statement and is claiming to have won 28% of SDE's based on ~75% of the vote. That compares to Sanders's statement claiming 28.6% of SDE's based on ~40% of the vote.
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Related threads

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Peter Daou
@peterdaou
ON #WARREN'S LOW BLOW

Since this will come up at the #DemDebate, I want to explain her attack on #Bernie.

When CNN leaked the story, Warren could have said: "We're friends and he was referring to the challenges women candidates face. I won't grace these leaks."

Instead...
...Warren's campaign put out a statement that effectively calls #Bernie sexist and then claims to want to move on.

The net effect is to try to damage the leading progressive in the race, which gives a big boost to the establishment wing.

Now why on earth would she do that?
People who follow me know how dedicated I am to fighting sexism. It was everything I did in 2016 and I was mocked and smeared for it when I defended Hillary.

But this isn't about sexism. It's about the incredibly questionable timing of lobbing this out there as #Bernie surges.
Read 5 tweets
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mathieu gallard
@mathieugallard
🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
🇺🇸🗳️ Au niveau national, peu d'évolutions en un an de campagne :

➡️#Biden reste en tête

➡️Les candidats de l’aile gauche #Sanders et #Warren le suivent à distance

➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
🇺🇸🗳️ Mais les sondages nationaux ont peu d’importance à ce stade : si un candidat crée la surprise lors d’une des premières primaires, il peut impulser une dynamique à sa campagne (le « momentum ») qui l’avantagera lors des scrutins suivants.
Read 41 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth 🏳️‍🌈
@VABVOX
#Sanders and #Biden have both been on #Medicare for well over a decade.
Didn't they every look at what it is?
Medicare has parts A, B. C and D.
Everyone has to buy a plan in addition to what the government provides.
So this is actually exactly #Medicare--for all....
Parts A, B, C and D. Parts A & B are known as Original Medicare. This is the most basic coverage you can get. Parts C & D are available through private health plans. They're both ways to enhance your health care coverage if you want more than what Original Medicare offers.
#M4A
Medicare has several parts. Part A covers your hospital care. Part B is for your medical care or doctor visits. Part C, which is an alternative to Parts A and B covers both your hospital care and doctor visits. Part D is a prescription drug plan. - aarp.org/health/medicar…
Read 4 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
#Biden slumps, #Buttigieg soars, tied with #Sanders and #Warren, #Harris next in benchmark #Iowa poll thehill.com/homenews/campa…
Critical point here is that the MSM is claiming that #Sanders "came within a handful of votes" of #HillaryClinton, when he lost in a landslide of 4M votes, 1k pledged delegates (not SDs) and a dozen states.
2/
This false narrative harms #Sanders--it's meant to highlight how badly he's doing in 2020 and prop up #Biden. But Sanders is actually doing better than in 2016. There are just more players. And Biden is being replaced by a younger centrist, #Buttigieg.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #PrideMonth
@VABVOX
THREAD
Response to #Biden skipping the California Dems is scathing.

Biden's "refusal to show up only reinforces the idea that he’s an elitist and he is more interested in collecting big checks in CA than being in genuine touch with grassroots activists."
usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
#Buttigieg and #Warren took Biden on.
Buttigieg said that "the riskiest thing we could do is try to play it safe.... In these times, Democrats can no more promise to take us back to the 2000s or 1990s than conservatives can take us back to the 1950s.”

usatoday.com/story/news/pol… …
#Warren: “Some Democrats in Washington believe the only changes we can get are tweaks & nudges.If they dream at all, they dream small.Some say if we’d all just calm down, Republicans will come to their senses. Our country is in a time of crisis. The time for small ideas is over.”
Read 9 tweets
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
#Warren, #Harris and #Castro had previously called for #impeachment weeks ago.

More Democrats Are Calling For Impeachment After #Mueller Said He Could Not Clear Trump buzzfeednews.com/article/paulmc…
A week ago both #Beto and #Buttigieg had joined the impeachment calls.Today #Booker, #Gillibrand and others added their voices for impeachment and #Sanders said he would support whatever Pelosi chooses to do, but said it seems time to examine the issue.
The outlier among the frontrunners is #Biden, who took a wait-and-see attitude. In his
statement, #Mueller declaratively punted the ball to Congress.
Read 3 tweets

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