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This BBC headline has been getting a lot of attention, and is an inaccurate framing of our recent Nature piece. We argue that its misleading when the RCP8.5 emission pathway is used as "business-as-usual". Its not misleading when its described as a worst-case scenario. 1/2
As we've pointed out, while the emissions underlying RCP8.5 are increasingly implausible, its harder to rule out that level of forcing/warming given uncertainties in carbon feedbacks. Its unlikely in a current policies world, but far from impossible. 2/2
Its important to distinguish between emissions pathways and warming outcomes (which depend on emissions, carbon cycle feedbacks, and climate sensitivity). While more clarity on emissions somewhat narrows warming outcomes, large uncertainties remain!
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Lets not get ahead of ourselves; climate models in general have been good at projecting future warming, but the latest generation models with very high climate sensitivity actually don't do a particularly good job "hindcasting" past warming: earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2019-86/
Climate modeling is one of many lines of evidence that we use to determine climate sensitivity. Across all those lines of evidence our best estimate is still ~3C per doubling CO2, with a range of 1.5C to 5.5C (accounting for these new models). carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-…
For more on CMIP6 results so far, see our recent @CarbonBrief explainer: carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next…
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Nature just published a comment by @Peters_Glen and I pointing out that the high-emissions RCP8.5 emissions scenario – with its 500% increase in coal use by 2100 – is increasingly unlikely in a world of falling clean energy prices. nature.com/articles/d4158…

A thread: 1/11
RCP8.5 was never intended to be business-as-usual. It was originally selected to represent roughly the 90th percentile of no-policy (after 2005) outcomes in the literature. In the intervening 15 years it has become increasingly unlikely. carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-… 2/11
While some scientific papers correctly contextualized it as a very high end scenario, others referred to it as business-as-usual or indicated it was the current pathway that world was on. This traces back to poor communication between energy modelers and climate scientists. 3/11
Read 24 tweets
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Our best estimate is that 100% of the warming the world has experienced is due to human activities. Natural factors – changes in solar output and volcanoes – would have led to slight cooling over the past 50 years: carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-s…
(around 100%, that is to say. The actual best estimate is that slightly over 100% is due to humans, since natural factors are likely cooling the climate in recent years)
Note that the link in the original tweet is missing its "www", which is causing an invalid certificate error for some people. We are looking into the cause, but in the mean time here is a link that should work fine: carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-s…
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Joel Benjamin
@Gian_TCatt
Emily @maitlis joins @franunsworth & DG Tony Hall in the Guardian/Observer labelling anyone who observes a clear pattern of Establishment/Tory bias at the #BBC 'conspiracy theorists' theguardian.com/media/2019/dec… #BBCbias
@maitlis @franunsworth In my recent letter to DG Tony Hall, I point out that the term 'conspiracy theory' used & abused by #BBC staff is a CIA construct, employed to close down critical public debate docs.google.com/document/d/1T5…
#BBC license fee payers should ask themselves why a succession of BBC management & senior staff are writing articles in the @guardian, using CIA devices designed to shut down public debate on #BBCbias?
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Formal Political Theory Research
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This paper by @ScottFAbramson, @Korhan_Kocak, and
@asyamagazinnik on conjoint analysis has been getting a lot of attention, and rightly so! We wanted to add a bit from a @formaltheory perspective. 1/ scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/…
One influential strand of formal theory in political science is Social Choice Theory (SCT), which studies the aggregation of *individual preferences* to broader *group preferences*. 2/
For example, suppose we know whether a bunch of individuals prefer A or B. Majority rule is a way to aggregate these preferences into whether the group prefers A or B: just count how many prefer each go with the higher number. 3/
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Jihyoboo / Sahyo au #GetWellSoonMina
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SaHyo au - "Ruins of the Heart"
Jihyo is a victim of a car accident. She wakes up inside a hospital being watched over by a woman named Sana, who she can't remember. Sana, her best friend finds out Jihyo has an illness. She hopes to help Jihyo regain her memories, or even more..
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Matthew Encina
@matthewencina
How to determine scope and price in the first meeting with a prospect. Discussion sequence:

1. What’s your goal?
2. What’s getting in the way? Why?
3. How might we solve? Are you sure?
4. What’s that worth?
5. How will we measure?
6. (Float a price range).

#business of #design
Diagnose before you prescribe. Make sure it’s a problem worth solving. Offer recommendations (even if it doesn’t involve you). And only offer your solution, if you feel confident it will actually help them.

Everything I’ve learned from @theChrisDo @jonathanstark @blairenns
Mindset going into a #sales meeting to remove the pressure:

Don’t ever WANT the job. (That makes you say and do funny things). Rather, WANT to genuinely HELP the other person. Even if it means it has nothing to do with the service your offer.

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Seamus Blackley
@SeamusBlackley
I’ve been working on a yeast (and prolly other stuff) sample that I got from (redacted source). It’s from scrapings of ancient Egyptian bread pots. Yes, yeasts can hibernate that long. Yes, I’m going to bake today using it, using Barley and Emmer, which the ancient Egyptians had.
OK! Sorry if this is boring, but I’m trying to learn to bake bread that tastes like it did 4000 years ago. Here’s the earliest wheat I can readily get, Einkorn. I mill it into flour from the seeds, as you can see here. The yeast is still getting started so now is the time to mill
Here’s what milling looks like. In that machine are two stone discs that rotate opposite each other, which grind the seeds to powder. Fineness is controlled with the spacing of the discs. This is very close to how ancient people’s did it, while take a lot less time.
Read 37 tweets

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