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Our best estimate is that 100% of the warming the world has experienced is due to human activities. Natural factors – changes in solar output and volcanoes – would have led to slight cooling over the past 50 years: carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-s…
(around 100%, that is to say. The actual best estimate is that slightly over 100% is due to humans, since natural factors are likely cooling the climate in recent years)
Note that the link in the original tweet is missing its "www", which is causing an invalid certificate error for some people. We are looking into the cause, but in the mean time here is a link that should work fine: carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-s…
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Nature just published a comment by @Peters_Glen and I pointing out that the high-emissions RCP8.5 emissions scenario – with its 500% increase in coal use by 2100 – is increasingly unlikely in a world of falling clean energy prices. nature.com/articles/d4158…

A thread: 1/11 Image
RCP8.5 was never intended to be business-as-usual. It was originally selected to represent roughly the 90th percentile of no-policy (after 2005) outcomes in the literature. In the intervening 15 years it has become increasingly unlikely. carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-… 2/11 Image
While some scientific papers correctly contextualized it as a very high end scenario, others referred to it as business-as-usual or indicated it was the current pathway that world was on. This traces back to poor communication between energy modelers and climate scientists. 3/11
Read 23 tweets
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
A provocative piece by @TedNordhaus in today's Wall Street Journal makes the case that effective climate policy is one that promotes human prosperity – particularly in poorer countries – while adopting policies to invest in and promote clean energy. wsj.com/articles/ignor… 1/7
The piece argues continuing political, economic and technological modernization, not a radical remaking of society, is key to both slowing climate change and adapting to it. It suggests a richer world is one of lower population growth, higher equality and adaptive capacity. 2/7
This is also the assumption underlying the future scenarios used by the IPCC. The most sustainable future (SSP1) with the easiest path to deep decarbonization is also one of the highest economic growth and lowest population scenarios considered: 3/7
Read 7 tweets
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Our 2019 State of the Climate wrap-up is out on @CarbonBrief: carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…

Surface: 2nd warmest
Ocean heat: Warmest
Lower troposphere: 2nd/3rd warmest
Sea level: Highest
Glacier mass: Lowest
Arctic sea ice: 2nd lowest
Atmospheric GHGs: highest

Highlights below: 1/7
2019 was the second warmest year on record in all the surface temperature datasets apart from @metoffice's HadCRUT4 (though even they said that on balance it was probably the 2nd warmest). We also get the same result just using raw temperature records with no adjustments: 2/7
Here is what the long-term raw temperature record looks like compared to Hadley and NOAA records: quite similar to Hadley in recent years, and shows more warming overall due to cooler pre-1950 temperatures: 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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Val. Masson-Delmotte
@valmasdel
Happy New Year 2020 : a (long) letter to 16 year old people of today.
Dear young friend, I would like to look both backwards and forward and think of climate change science and society.
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Jenny Chase
@solar_chase
1. Time to make minor updates to my #solar unpopular opinions thread, since this seems to be a good way to organize thoughts.

If you like these, you’ll like my book, Solar Power Without the Jargon. tinyurl.com/y4bsswty
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SwatKat💃
@swatic12
I used to think that global warming and co2 emissions are future problems, things we do not need to worry about in the present. But if you look at the weather extremities, damage to ocean life and the hazardous level of pollution in the air then you know that the prblm is real.
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Mike Shellenberger
@ShellenbergerMD
1. They hyped California & Vermont as climate leaders. They replaced nuclear with fossil. Pollution rose

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Governors who care about the climate will stop them

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@WSJ 2. Many environmentalists have changed their minds about nuclear energy over the past decade. While solar & wind have grown rapidly, nuclear remains America’s largest source of clean electricity.
@WSJ 3. Anyone seriously interested in preventing dangerous levels of global warming should be advocating nuclear power.
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