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Lets not get ahead of ourselves; climate models in general have been good at projecting future warming, but the latest generation models with very high climate sensitivity actually don't do a particularly good job "hindcasting" past warming: earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2019-86/
Climate modeling is one of many lines of evidence that we use to determine climate sensitivity. Across all those lines of evidence our best estimate is still ~3C per doubling CO2, with a range of 1.5C to 5.5C (accounting for these new models). carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-…
For more on CMIP6 results so far, see our recent @CarbonBrief explainer: carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next…
@CarbonBrief To clarify a tad: hindcasts from CMIP6 perform fairly well on average, but those models with lower sensitivity (< 4C) tend to do a notably better job than those with high sensitivity.
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
We've updated out @CarbonBrief analysis of the climate impacts of electric vehicles in light of rapidly falling carbon intensity of electricity in countries like the UK and a large revision downward of battery manufacturing emissions by IVL: carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-… 1/3
Our previous version of the article used the 2017 IVL review of battery manufacturing emissions, which estimated them at 150-200 kg/kWh battery capacity. The 2019 revision uses data from commercial scale manufacturing plants and find only 61-106 kg/kWh (upper bound of 146): 2/3
More broadly, recent studies of lifecycle battery emissions all suggest around 100 kg/kWh or below, though there are still differences based on how electricity used in manufacturing is produced. If 100% renewables are used, this number drops as low as 60 kg/kWh. 3/3
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
This BBC headline has been getting a lot of attention, and is an inaccurate framing of our recent Nature piece. We argue that its misleading when the RCP8.5 emission pathway is used as "business-as-usual". Its not misleading when its described as a worst-case scenario. 1/2
As we've pointed out, while the emissions underlying RCP8.5 are increasingly implausible, its harder to rule out that level of forcing/warming given uncertainties in carbon feedbacks. Its unlikely in a current policies world, but far from impossible. 2/2
Its important to distinguish between emissions pathways and warming outcomes (which depend on emissions, carbon cycle feedbacks, and climate sensitivity). While more clarity on emissions somewhat narrows warming outcomes, large uncertainties remain!
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Nature just published a comment by @Peters_Glen and I pointing out that the high-emissions RCP8.5 emissions scenario – with its 500% increase in coal use by 2100 – is increasingly unlikely in a world of falling clean energy prices. nature.com/articles/d4158…

A thread: 1/11
RCP8.5 was never intended to be business-as-usual. It was originally selected to represent roughly the 90th percentile of no-policy (after 2005) outcomes in the literature. In the intervening 15 years it has become increasingly unlikely. carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-… 2/11
While some scientific papers correctly contextualized it as a very high end scenario, others referred to it as business-as-usual or indicated it was the current pathway that world was on. This traces back to poor communication between energy modelers and climate scientists. 3/11
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Dr. Ruby Sapphire
@Sophie88403973
So I just read a brand new paper out on autism. It’s a primer; which is kind of the academic equivalent of The State of The Nation address- where are we at, where to next, etc.

I thought I would share the main points here.

Link to paper 👇
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/31949…
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Ruth Mottram
@ruth_mottram
Amazing footage - apropos this and the Watson River flood of 2012, my colleagues and I were inspired to write a paper looking at the potential for high runoff events in the future in this paper researchgate.net/publication/32…
In our future #climate simulations the region in western #Greenland that includes #Kangerlussuaq from the #icesheet to the shores of the #DavisStrait we show how melt + runoff of early 2000s was outpacing mid-century projections*

*Caveat: only one GCM #ECEARTH shown here
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Armond Ray Erickson
@ArmonRaE
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Sophie Lewis
@aviandelights
Here's a brief summary of some of the our Australian #climate extremes research since 2013, a year that has nothing to do with any particular events, government or ideology
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Sheldon Whitehouse
@SenWhitehouse
Apple may want governments to move faster on #climate, but its presence here in Congress doesn’t contribute to that result.

A thread ⬇️ usatoday.com/story/tech/tal…
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