Thread by @ErikSTownsend

1/THREAD: #2019nCoV Fatality Rate

Let's get serious about understanding the true fatality rate of nCoV. The widely publicized estimates of 2-3% were determined by dividing CURRENT death toll by CURRENT case count.

That is badly flawed logic, and yields misleading results!

2/ The problem is that the denominator (case count) is growing exponentially, and there is a lag period between time of diagnosis and when death might be expected. @chrismartenson explained this on last night's @MacroVoices podcast.

Dr. Martenson suggested using a 7-day lag

@chrismartenson @MacroVoices 3/ Nobody knows the "correct" lag factor, but using Dr. Martenson's 7 day suggestion, we divide the current death toll of 213 by the Jan. 24 case count of 1287. THAT YIELDS A CASE FATALITY RATE OF 16.55%!!!

I'm NOT saying that 16.55% is the "correct" case fatality rate, because

@chrismartenson @MacroVoices 4/ nobody knows the right lag factor to use.

BUT WHAT WE DO KNOW FOR CERTAIN IS THAT THE LAG FACTOR IS NOT ZERO, SO THEREFORE THE 2-3% CASE FATALITY RATES BEING WIDELY QUOTED ARE TOTAL BULLSHIT!

The actual CFR is much higher than the 2-3% misinformation figure widely quoted.

@chrismartenson @MacroVoices 5/ One of the biggest claims of those trying to dismiss importance of nCOV is that the case fatality rate of SARS was "MUCH higher". That's simply not true.

The CFR for SARS was 3.48% early in its development, akin to current status of nCoV. It grew to 9.56% over several months.

@chrismartenson @MacroVoices 6/ We should expect the same from nCOV.

Unlike SARS, which was easy to contain because fever occurred before the patient became contagious, nCoV features asymptomatic transmission.

That's why nCoV is a "perfect storm" scenario.

@chrismartenson @MacroVoices 7/ 3 factors create the perfect storm:

1. Asymptomatic transmission makes containment basically impossible.

2. Much more contagious (higher R0) than common flu or even SARS

3. Ultimate fatality rate UNKNOWN but certain to be way higher than 2-3% being widely quoted

@chrismartenson @MacroVoices 8/ And despite all this - knowing that with asymptomatic transmission making diagnosis of contagion risk impossible, and knowing that airliners are exporting thousands of people every day, some certain to be infected and contagious, WHO says "no need for travel bans"!!!

@chrismartenson @MacroVoices 9/ I can only conclude that the risk of escalation to global pandemic is much higher than most observers realize, and what WHO is corrupted by political interests and cannot be relied upon to defend the public health.

This is a very sad state of affairs indeed.

END THREAD

@chrismartenson @MacroVoices 10/UPDATE:

This video from Dr. Chris Martenson @chrismartenson is an absolute MUST WATCH! Reveals that nCoV may be A LOT more contagious than SARS, and have a similar case fatality rate!