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I could be off, but it looks like 39 of the 82 precincts out in Polk are in Des Moines. 42 Des Moines precincts have reported. Sanders won 25 of those, Warren 2, and Buttigieg only 1. 14 were tied.

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Pete did well in suburban Ankeny in Polk, winning 7 of the 12 precincts reporting to Sanders' 1 (Warren 1, 4 tied). But only 4 precincts are not in.
There are more Buttigieg areas out in western Polk County, but again not as many of those precincts are left out. 4 left each in Johnston and Urbandale. West Des Moines (Polk part) a big area left with 11 precincts out. Of the others, Sanders won 1, Buttigieg 2, rest tied.
In Johnson county, 4 of the 10 precincts out are in Iowa City, which has been Sanders and Warren country so far. The other 6 are in outer townships which have been more split.
Most of the precincts in Scott County out are in Davenport. 17 precincts out there; of the 13 in, Sanders won 3, Buttigieg 1, Tied 9. Again, more Sanders votes likely to come.
In Story, 6 precincts in Ames out. Sanders won 7 Ames precincts reporting, Warren 1, 6 tied. More Sanders votes in the offing.
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Henry Olsen
@henryolsenEPPC
There are still 464 SDEs left to award in #IACaucus. 145.51 of those are in Polk County, and the lion's share of those are in Des Moines, where Sanders did very well. I don't think Sanders will beat Buttigieg, but I'd be a bit surprised if the gap doesn't narrow.
Another 118.31 SDE's are left to award in six other large counties where Bernie leads (Linn, Story, Black Hawk, Pottawattamie, Woodbury, and Johnson). Again, I doubt he's gain enough in these places to overturn Buttigieg's lead. But he should narrow the gap some.
Finally, there are 60.27 SDE's left in two large Mississippi River counties, Scott and Dubuque, where Buttigieg leads. The precincts left, however, tend to be in the urban areas (Davenport and inner Dubuque) where Sanders has been winning. Don't be surprised if he gains here too.
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Henry Olsen
@henryolsenEPPC
Roughly half of the SDE's out in Polk are from Des Moines. Compare datastudio.google.com/reporting/19QR…
to
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
The SDE's out in the entire rest of Polk is about equal to the amount out from Des Moines. Sanders has about a 9.52 SDE lead over Buttigieg in Des Moines precincts that have alredy reported.
Pete, OTOH, ran up the score in Ankeny (+2.8), Johnston (+.56 in 2 precincts), and Urbandale. So that will balance out some of Sanders' Des Moines strength. West Des Moines will be key for both.
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Henry Olsen
@henryolsenEPPC
Tweet storm on what to look for at tonight's Iowa Caucuses -

Voter turnout is the first thing to look at. The IA Dem record was in 2008 when about 240,000 people voted. Roughly 176,000 voted in the 2018 Dem gubernatorial primary. Don't be surprised if the 08 record falls.

1/x
Polk County (Des Moines) will cast a bit under 1/4 of the votes. Johnson and Linn are next, but they will cast at most only 1/2 as many as Polk. We then drop off a lot to Dubuque, Scott, Story and Black Hawk, each of which are about 1/2 as large as Johnson & Linn

2/x
Delegates in each precinct will be selected based on the final preference vote. Remember - people who voted for a candidate who gets below the 15% (in most precincts) threshold to get delegates can choose a second candidate!

3/x
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mathieu gallard
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🇺🇸🗳️ Demain c'est le début des primaires démocrates pour désigner le candidat qui affrontera #Trump en novembre. Mais au fait, lequel de ces candidats est le plus à même de battre le Président sortant ? #thread
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mathieu gallard
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🇺🇸🗳️ Dans pile un mois, c’est le début d'une longue et palpitante saison électorale aux #EtatsUnis avec le caucus de l’#Iowa lors duquel 14 candidats vont concourir à l'investiture du parti démocrate. #primaires
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➡️#Buttigieg est le seul autre candidat à se démarquer, les autres faisant (pour l’instant ?) de la figuration
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Eldon Katz
@eldon_katz
From new @EmersonPolling national poll:

The landline primary:
(61% of those polled)

Biden 39%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 11%
Warren 10%

The "WTF is a landline?" primary:
(the other 39%)

Sanders 41%
Biden 21%
Warren 16%
Yang 9%

Source: emersonpolling.com/wp-content/upl…
Also from new @EmersonPolling national poll:

Among those who say "I will definitely vote for this candidate"

Biden 37%
Sanders 36%
Warren 7%
Everyone else <5%

Source: emersonpolling.com/wp-content/upl…
Also from new @EmersonPolling national poll:

Among Latino voters-

Sanders 36%
Biden 27%
Yang 12%
Gabbard 9%
Warren 6%

Source: emersonpolling.com/wp-content/upl…
Read 15 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
We've got a thing set up to anticipate how bounces from early states will affect national polls. Here's what it says the polls would look like nationally if all candidates exactly hit their current IA polls with Buttigieg winning IA

Biden—21%
Buttigieg—21%
Sanders—15%
Warren—13%
Just for fun, here's what it says what national polls look like post Iowa if Bernie wins Iowa with 25% of the vote, followed by Buttigieg (22%), Biden (17%) and Warren (13%):

Sanders—27%
Biden— 21%
Warren—14%
Buttigieg—12%
Anyway, we'll talk more about this stuff later. But one basic intuition is that Biden would probably indeed prefer Buttigieg to win Iowa rather than Sanders/Warren, because Sanders/Warren are stronger nationally and would be more likely to knock Biden out of 1st after an IA win.
Read 3 tweets
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Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
National @Reuters/@Ipsos Poll

Who is the best candidate on..

Healthcare:
Sanders 25
Biden 15
Warren 13
Buttigieg 7
Harris 5
Booker 2

Environment:
Sanders 19
Biden 13
Warren 12
Buttigieg 8
Harris 6
Booker 5

Strong progressive:
Sanders 22
Warren 17
Biden 14
Booker 5
Buttigieg 4
@Reuters @Ipsos Economy/Jobs:
Biden 22
Sanders 18
Warren 11
Buttigieg 7
Harris 6
Booker 2

Immigration:
Biden 17
Sanders 16
Warren 11
Harris 8
Buttigieg 5
Booker 2
@Reuters @Ipsos Can unify the Democratic Party:
Biden 23
Sanders 14
Warren 10
Buttigieg 9
Harris 5
Booker 3

Most likely to beat Trump in the GE:
Biden 30
Sanders 15
Warren 11
Buttigieg 4
Booker 4
Harris 3
Read 4 tweets
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Eldon Katz
@eldon_katz
From new @EmersonPolling national poll:

The landline primary (63% of those polled)-

Biden 34%
Warren 22%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 4%
Yang 4%

The 'people living in the 21st century' primary (the other 37%)-

Sanders 42%
Warren 20%
Biden 15%
Yang 5%
Harris 5%
Buttigieg 3%
@EmersonPolling From the same poll-

People who say health care is their top issue:

Sanders 42%
Warren 25%
Biden 17%
Buttigieg 8%
Harris 1%
Yang 0%

People who say climate is their top issue:

Sanders 47%
Warren 17%
Biden 16%
Harris 8%
Buttigieg 3%
Yang 2%
@EmersonPolling Also from the same poll-

Winning ages 18-49:

Sanders 34%
Warren 24%
Biden 15%
Yang 7%
Harris 5%
Buttigieg 4%

AND winning ages 18-64:

Sanders 27%
Biden 25%
Warren 21%
Buttigieg 6%
Harris 5%
Yang 5%
Read 5 tweets

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