Tweet storm on what to look for at tonight's Iowa Caucuses -
Voter turnout is the first thing to look at. The IA Dem record was in 2008 when about 240,000 people voted. Roughly 176,000 voted in the 2018 Dem gubernatorial primary. Don't be surprised if the 08 record falls.
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Voter turnout is the first thing to look at. The IA Dem record was in 2008 when about 240,000 people voted. Roughly 176,000 voted in the 2018 Dem gubernatorial primary. Don't be surprised if the 08 record falls.
1/x
Polk County (Des Moines) will cast a bit under 1/4 of the votes. Johnson and Linn are next, but they will cast at most only 1/2 as many as Polk. We then drop off a lot to Dubuque, Scott, Story and Black Hawk, each of which are about 1/2 as large as Johnson & Linn
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2/x
Delegates in each precinct will be selected based on the final preference vote. Remember - people who voted for a candidate who gets below the 15% (in most precincts) threshold to get delegates can choose a second candidate!
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3/x
Each precinct elects a certain number of delegates to the county convention. The IA Dem Party has translated these delegate numbers into "state delegate equivalents", or how many delegates to the state convention these county delegates equate to.
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4/x
That SDE total is what is used to calculate how many delegates each presidential candidate will receive in each of Iowa's 4 CDs and statewide. A candidate must get 15% of the SDEs in any CD or statewide to get national delegates.
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5/x
CD 1 & 2 will select 7 national delegates. CD 3 selects 8, and CD 4 selects 5. 14 will be selected based on statewide SDEs.
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6/x
CD 1 has 560 SDEs. Linn has 189, followed by Black Hawk (101) and Dubuque (72). The other 17 counties have 198. SO watch the big 3.
CD 2 has 543 SDEs. Johnson, the state's leftist stronghold, has 162. Scott has another 124. In 2016 and 2008, the same candidate carried both.
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CD 2 has 543 SDEs. Johnson, the state's leftist stronghold, has 162. Scott has another 124. In 2016 and 2008, the same candidate carried both.
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CD 3 is dominated by Polk, which selects 392 of the district's 593 DE. Dallas, a well-off suburb of Polk, selects another 58. Pottawattamie in the west selects 48.
CD 4 has no major county. Story is #1 but has only 83 of the CD's 411 SDEs. Woodbury has 51.
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CD 4 has no major county. Story is #1 but has only 83 of the CD's 411 SDEs. Woodbury has 51.
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I'll be live tweeting the results as they come and trying to project how a candidate is going to do in one of the five delegate awarding jurisdictions based on the returns. Follow me all night long for the analysis!
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9/9
