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Yes, this is true. And I am convinced a great deal of the trend is powered by the campaign teams/strategists the outsiders have to build to wrestle the nomination away from the party machines which end up more innovative, lithe, and agile.
However, keep in mind, in 2008 the mass electorate finally responds to elite/activitist polarization which is why I warn against analyses that look backwards. The electorate of the past would never have elected Donald Trump. Heck, they wouldn't have nominated him. Sanders
couldn't be competitive in the old electorate. We are in a whole new world now. Again, this analysis is from my diss & is being updated for the academic version of my forecasting work.
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌
@RachelBitecofer
Today's must read is an account of something I've been threading about for months: Parscale's FB effort to drive MAGA narratives to keep Trump voters in-line despite Trump's scandals & convert new, white working class whites into Trump voters (which my fellow analysts sneer at)
As I talked about previously, I monitored right-wing media throughout the House impeachment hearings- it is exactly as described here. The vast majority of Americans on that side of the aisle were presented a carefully cultivated "alt fact" version of the hearings & scandal
that as the article's headline alludes to, are techniques the Trump world (and the broader right wing media machines) have adapted from the state propaganda techniques used by some of the most heinous authoritarian regimes in the world. In other words, this is some serious shit.
Read 6 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌
@RachelBitecofer
I love the Politico piece but one thing: Media/reporters constantly overstate my claim about swing voters bc it makes for a sensationalized headline/frame. My research does not claim that there is no such thing as a swing voter. It explains that there are just way less of them
then people think & their “swingyness” is vastly overstated. Swing voters are imp, but they are not the only thing that matters, & they swing in two ways- one commonly understood- vote choice, the other completely ignored till now- turnout. Much of the preference swing of Indies
comes from different Indies voting in a cycle who have different preferences. The forthcoming @newrepublic piece will show you this.
Read 3 tweets
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌
@RachelBitecofer
Yep, in the end, 90% of Republicans punched their ballots for Roy Moore Jr- a credibly accused, serial child molester. Some who did so used Trump's "fake news" dismissals to pretend Moore was innocent (to themselves), others justified it on the basis of the policy/judge stakes.
The exit poll data reveals that @DougJones won the race bc of a massive turnout surge of D voters, who in the South, are now primarily non-white voters (more on that topic another time) & the strong preference among Indies for Jones. Although I don't look at the AL Sen race in
upcoming voter file analysis forthcoming in @newrepublic my expectation is that if I did, you would find 2 things happening in the Indie vote. 1. persuadable Indies broke in favor of Jones (who is not a child molester) and 2. there was also a massive turnout surge among AL's Ind
Read 8 tweets

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Darren
@ReformedTrader
1/ The Futures (Emily Lambert)

Thread with quotes from the book

"In 1808, the government built Fort Dearborn on a small hill near the shore of a large freshwater late. The soldiers defended the fur trade. Chicago was built, literally, for trading."

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Dale Johnson
@DaleJohnsonESPN
So, it's the Monday VAR thread which, as you might expect, starts with a chunk about offside.

This should explain how we've got to where we are now, and the issues behind various solutions.

But let's be clear at the start, offside will not change before next season.
Before early in 2019, the only offside tech available was the use of one line, across a pitch, which did not take into account camera angle.

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Take this Harry Kane offside from the FA Cup last season.

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So the position of the camera decided offside.
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Sergey Radchenko
@DrRadchenko
A good piece by Frank Dikötter on 70th anniversary fo the People's Republic of China: foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/01/the…. I agree with Frank that "liberation" is a misnomer: who or what was China liberated from in 1949?
I disagree, however, with his description of pre-1949 China as some kind of a vibrant democracy. It was a kleptocracy. Chiang Kai-shek was in all fairness a fascist, if an incompetent one at that.
Chiang presided over a deeply divided country, battered by war, mismanagement, and corruption. That's why he lost the civil war. I'd recommend this primer: amazon.com/Chiang-Kai-She….
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mmnjug™
@mmnjug
President Mwai Kibaki was in his office at State House. It was early 2008 and he had a lot to mull over in his in-tray, not the least of which was the PEV that was raging in the Rift Valley and threatening to consume his presidency and destroy the country.
Suddenly, the Comptroller of State House, Mr Hyslop Ipu, came barging in with a mobile phone in hand. Waiting to talk to him urgently on the other end of the line — 7,500 kilometres away in the UAE — was his Information minister, Mr Mutahi Kagwe.
All the way from Abu Dhabi, Mr Kagwe could hear the President tell Ipu to hand over the phone in his famous baritone, “Leta hiyo kitu.”
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Pasquale "Pat" Scopelliti⭐️⭐️⭐️⚔️
@ThyConsigliori
John Minford, #SunTzu 8: 8 "There are armies not to attack."
Wow, what a can of worms I opened up this morning. I thought of honest Abe. I'd seen all the memes about destroying enemies by making them friends. I wasn't able to figure out if Lincoln said anything like that or not. Can you? If so, let me know!
Not getting bogged down in either attribution or specific (and accurate quotation), let's run with the assumption he said something like: The best way to destroy an enemy is to make a friend. Now, boom, we run into trouble again, immediately! What might this mean?
Read 24 tweets

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