Thread by @henryolsenEPPC

Short thread on the IA Caucus results -

If you want to understand Sanders' base, look at the precinct map. He does well in college towns, as you would expect, but his real support base is the inner cities. Look at this map.

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

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He uniformly carries the downtowns and surrounding areas in these places. If you're not doing well in today's economy, you are very likely to have backed Sanders over Buttigieg on Monday.

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The flip side is he did poorly in the suburbs, and the wealthier the suburb the poorer he did. These are places like Ankeny, Urbandale, and Johnston in Polk County, and Dallas County entirely. What @RonBrownstein labels the "wine set" voted for Buttigieg, the wine cave guy.

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@RonBrownstein The kicker was Sanders cratered in the rural areas. If he had appeal to the blue-collar Obama-Trump voter, it would have shown up in places like Howard County, the only county in the USA that went from Obama +20 to Trump +20. Sanders barely beat AKlo there.

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@RonBrownstein This bodes poorly for him in New Hampshire unless another candidate can cut into Buttigieg's appeal to the upper-income suburbanites on the NH-Mass. border. Not saying he will lose, but his shot at winning goes up a lot if Biden or Klobuchar can dent Buttigieg tonight.

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