Thread by @Trinhnomics

Daily update of #coronaviruschina: Number of death rose to 811 or 12% v pre day of 14%; Confirmed to 37,198 or 8%. Btw, dead/confirmed ratio RISING to 2.2% from 2.09

Recovered rate slowed to 29% to 2,649 from 33%: of the 2649 recovered, 811 dead or 31%.

And I forecasted this.

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1224518054761000961

Daily update of #coronaviruschina: Number of death rose to 811 or 12% v pre day of 14%; Confirmed to 37,198 or 8%. Btw, dead/confirmed ratio RISING to 2.2% from 2.09

Recovered rate slowed to 29% to 2,649 from 33%: of the 2649 recovered, 811 dead or 31%.

Note that confirmed case doubled in 1 week:

2 Feb: 20,120
8 Feb: 37,198

Okay, death is FASTER at 6 days as rate of growth faster:

3 Feb: 425
8 Feb: 811

Key is recovered SLOWING but high at 29% (down from 33%)

Higher growth rate of fatality vs confirmed cases raises the following question:

a) Is the slowing growth of confirmed due to quarantine & testing capability limits or ACTUAL slowing of infection;

b) Fatality surpassed SARS in totality & SARs peaked in May & we're in early Feb

Let me show u the daily growth rates of recovered, death & confirmed. Note the slowing of recovered (higher than death) but still no comfort given the higher death vs confirmed growth rates.

Ratios of interest:

Death/confirmed rising to 2.2% from 2.1% previous day.
Death/recovered slowing to 31% from 35% previous day.