Thread by @Trinhnomics

Daily #coronaviruschina update:

Fatality ratios rising to 2.3% & recovered slowing to 24% from 28% so that is not good.

As forecasted, confirmed cases reached 40,171 & dead 908, surpassing SARS entire death #.

Recovered rose to 3,281 & death/recovered ratio is 28%

(reposted)

Ratios of interest:

Death/recovered is slowing but still high at 28%
Meanwhile, death/confirmed RISING to 2.3%.

Question is whether confirmed is limited by test kits & criteria of testing etc.

But the official fatality rates are rising everyday.

The growth rates are below. All trending lower including recovered, which is not good news.

Fatality rate grew 12% on 9 Feb vs 12.3% on 8 Feb so slowing but very high. Let's project for end of this wk.

Note that last wk I was bang on with my forecasts.

Before we do this forecasting exercise, let's put all the information that we know together:

We know confirmed cases are likely to be already severe (from Dr Li's chronology & also what the ICU doctor said) & that mortality ratio is higher at 3-5%...

https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1226349783809318912?s=20

But most key is what the ICU doctor said, which is that the 1st three wks are most key (as in b/n life & death) so likely that people that are NOT SEVERE are either under watch/suspected & also likely to recover. The fatality/confirmation ratio shows likely higher than would be.

As in the reason for the Wuhan higher fatality ratio (so far only 1 death outside of mainland China) than even other provinces likely to do w/ how far progressed these confirmed cases are. As in they are in the severe stage (note Dr Li tested negative even w/ coughs & only later)

In other words, the fatality ratios are very different depending on how u fight the disease early on. No idea what that ratio is but likely more people infected than confirmed. That said, once severe, odds lower & obvs once in the ICU, odds are much lower. So what does that mean?

According the American Medical Association:

Of the 17,000 1st cases, 3% critical, 15% severe, & 82% mild.

Of the 138 patients at Zhongnan Hispital, 4.3% died Y 26% in ICU.

And obvs w/ today's rising fatality ratio to 2.3%, markets are like urghh..

So that's a wrap. I have compiled everything I've read on this stuff (anecdotal (Dr Li's account) & Zhongnan Hospital + American analysis + official data.

Safe to say that it's a mixed bag but obvs don't want to end up in the serious/critical bunch. Don't forget, 1st 3 wks key!

If u're curious regarding my forecasts for Valentine's Day (14 Feb); Assuming stabilization of infection rate (as in not spiking due to resumption of work), we'll get to around 58k & 1500 deaths & much higher recovered of 9k. Recovered/confirmed ratio slows but fatality rises.

Note that the fatality ratio is likely higher than real ones & much higher than outside Hubei due to the fact that very likely these cases already got rather serious by the time confirmed.

Hence the divergence in fatality rates outside Hubei & outside mainland China. We'll see!