#coronaviruschina daily update:
Death toll rose to 722 by 7 Feb 2020 (207% more than the entire SARs for mainland China) & growth rate RISING to 14% from 13% of the previous day 🥶🙈
Infection rate slowed to 11% from 14% to 34,546 but the base is higher so this is very fast!
Death toll rose to 722 by 7 Feb 2020 (207% more than the entire SARs for mainland China) & growth rate RISING to 14% from 13% of the previous day 🥶🙈
Infection rate slowed to 11% from 14% to 34,546 but the base is higher so this is very fast!
Note that the recovered rate is also slowing to 33% from 34% & that means so far 2,050 recovered out of 34,546 confirmed infection.
Note that based on the doctor's false negative even w/ symptoms, very likely plenty more are positive but not yet confirmed.
🥶🥶🥶
Note that based on the doctor's false negative even w/ symptoms, very likely plenty more are positive but not yet confirmed.
🥶🥶🥶
So using the doctor's timeline (tested positive around 11 Jan & died around 7 Feb). That means we got 722 dead from that period...
Meaning, at that time, what was the infection & using that to calculate the fatality rate.
On 19 Jan, 201 people infected.
Meaning, at that time, what was the infection & using that to calculate the fatality rate.
On 19 Jan, 201 people infected.
Btw, using 722/34,546 = 2.09% fatality rate (obvs we don't know, could be much lower if the infected about 20-30 days ago were untested/confirmed or higher also).
Death/confirmed ratio is rising but modestly:
Feb 7 = 2.09%
Feb 6 = 2.04%
Feb 5 = 2.01%
Death/confirmed ratio is rising but modestly:
Feb 7 = 2.09%
Feb 6 = 2.04%
Feb 5 = 2.01%
Note a few things:
* # confirmed only those who tested & tested positive so safe to assuming that actual positive much higher
* Still, if we take official confirmed #s & say lag it & calculate then:
722/34,546 (7 Feb) = 2.09%
722/9,692 (30 Jan) =7.4%
622/1,975 (25 Jan) =36.6%
* # confirmed only those who tested & tested positive so safe to assuming that actual positive much higher
* Still, if we take official confirmed #s & say lag it & calculate then:
722/34,546 (7 Feb) = 2.09%
722/9,692 (30 Jan) =7.4%
622/1,975 (25 Jan) =36.6%
Bottom line, a lot we don't know but what we know is we now have a growing death rate & recovered rate slowing.Confirmed cases growing but at slowing rate. Question is whether it is due to testing constraints or not. Next wk, if people resume social activities, then rate can ...
Finally, beyond the human toll & stress on everyone (I literally sense this in HK everywhere as people panic), the key question for markets is of course:
a) How long will China stay under lock-down, as in will people return to work, etc
b) If this lasts longer, what's the impact?
a) How long will China stay under lock-down, as in will people return to work, etc
b) If this lasts longer, what's the impact?
A great live update website & provincial breakdown of the confirmed cases. So after CNY, we are now about 10k infected outside of Hubei.
thewuhanvirus.com
thewuhanvirus.com
