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New: Business leaders warn that trading with the EU like Australia would be disastrous for their sectors

The National Farmers’ Union, Food & Drink Federation, and Freight Transport Association all tell me it would create chaos and cost billions

businessinsider.com/brexit-busines…
The Food & Drink Fed said trading w/ the EU like Australia would be “disastrous” for the industry

“We export something like £13 bill each year to the EU, and reverting to the most favoured nation tariffs would destroy a very large share of those exports”businessinsider.com/brexit-busines…
The NFU said an approach to EU trade “like Australia’s,” as laid out by PM Johnson this week, is "pretty much no deal”

Their Brexit & trade director @nvonwestenholz warned it’d mean new tariffs on British exports to Europe like lamb, wheat, and barley businessinsider.com/brexit-busines…
The logistics sector said it urgently needed details to prepare for Jan

FTA’s @BastidonPauline: "It's all very well and good saying 'are you ready? are you ready?' as they [government] constantly do, but we need absolute clarity at an operational level..”businessinsider.com/brexit-busines…
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More from @adampayne26 see all

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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
Here at the Unison centre in central London where Jeremy Corbyn is due to deliver a major speech at 9:30. It’s all very mysterious. Labour sources are tight-lipped as to what it’s actually going to be about. “It’ll add to the excitement when you find out,” one says.
Team Starmer is here. Suggests a Brexit-related speech.
Here we go. Corbyn, Starmer and Louise Haigh have taken to the stage.
Read 13 tweets
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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
The Lib Dems confirm they have agreed electoral pacts with the Greens and Plaid in a “number” of seats

Details coming tomorrow
I’m at the Unite to Remain press conference where the organisation headed by Heidi Allen will reveal the seats where the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid have agreed electoral pacts. Details coming at 10am.
Here are the 60 seats where the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid have agreed pro-Remain electoral pacts
Read 10 tweets
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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
New Lib Dem defection imminent?
Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Lib Dems
Sandbach: “Our country deserves so much better than Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. I can’t wait to get to work, win this election and then deliver for my constituents and our country.”
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
NEW: #Brexit champagne corks not out of bottle yet, but can reveal taste of what is to come.

UK will run full border for EU imports - 'no deal' plans prioritising trade flows to be junked 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…
Biz groups to be told the 'good news' in meeting on Feb 10.

Radical departure from the October 'no deal' plans, that were designed to minimise checks to keep goods flowing - medicines, fruit and veg. etc. /2
Per source: “We are planning full checks on all EU imports - export declarations, security declarations, animal health checks and all supermarket goods to pass through Border Inspections Posts.” /3
Read 13 tweets
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Andrew Fisher
@FisherAndrew79
Boris Johnson claimed “many, many business organisations have come out in support of this deal”

Have they? Have they?

THREAD incoming ...
Make UK: “We are concerned to see that commitments to the closest possible trading relationship in goods have gone.
"Differences in regulation between the UK and the EU will add cost and bureaucracy and our companies will face a lack of clarity inhibiting investment and planning”
CBI: “Business has serious concerns about the direction of the future UK-EU relationship … The deal remains inadequate on services, which make up 80% of the UK economy”
Read 6 tweets
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George Gowing
@ImmigrSchorschi
"There is no Lord so important in our land
that doesn't live from Farmer's hand"

UK's National Farmers Union @NFUtweets & certainly Mrs Thatcher have taken many a swipe (UK rebate) at the EU subventions paid to small continental farmers but do they know some of the background?
A lovely doc this evening on Bavarian TV showing 5 different Alpine "huts", used for mountaineers (with some sheep), summer meadows for oxen & small cow herds & usually milk used on site for cheese & hunting lodges, Most only survive on added tourism income.
The CAP subvention money will not cover the cost but the value of these huts, often under generally primitive conditions, are priceless treasures & without the efforts of the farmers this alpine "cultured" landscape would be lost to the wilderness.
Read 9 tweets
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Jo Richards 🇬🇧🇪🇺#FBPE #WATON
@JoRichardsKent
THREAD (New York Times).

“The Post-Brexit Food Chain: ‘This Is Really, Really Scary’.

Food retailers and producers warn that supermarkets and food outlets would be the first to feel the impact of Britain crashing out of the European Union with no deal”. nytimes.com/2019/01/30/bus…
“Farmers, bakers and food producers have added their voices to warnings that Brexit could become a dinner plate issue. And they weren’t mincing words: they called Brexit a catastrophe and said they were too busy preparing for it to deal with any other business issues”.
“In a letter to Michal Gove [...] trade associations said, “Business throughout the U.K. food chain — and their trade associations — are now totally focused on working to mitigate the catastrophic impact of a no-deal Brexit.”

nytimes.com/2019/01/30/bus…
Read 30 tweets
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Julie Laumann 🌎
@Otpor17
"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris📈🤷‍♂️
@gelliottmorris
#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets

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