Thread by @PremLeaguePanel

🔎Champions League Last 16 ties preview - an analysis thread:

First some excellent video analysis on the ties:

Spurs vs Leipzig

•In general,Nagelsmann made Leipzig a more possession-oriented side (average possession up from 49.5% last season to 54% this season)

However,he's changed this approach in big games– vs Bayern,BVB,Leverkusen & Hoffenheim he ceded possession to the opposition

•Interesting to see if Nagelsmann tries to dominate possession vs Spurs (like how he does vs weaker sides), or counters like he did vs Bayern

•Using Bayern as an example, Leipzig had 31% possession and their main attacking strategy was to use the pace of Adams, Werner & Nkunku to counter them
-Big chances for Sabitzer & Werner both came from this strategy

•Likely Mourinho will want to ensure it is the former and set up in a mid to low block:

1. To blunt Leipzig’s counter-attacking approach vs the ageing Toby/Jan plus the positionally haywire Aurier.

2.Can capitalise on a Leipzig high line if they allow them to dominate the ball
-Lots of goals Leipzig concede are due to incorrect spacing between the CBs (which has been an even worse problem when Nagelsmann has exacerbated in a back 3).This occurs for 3 reasons: GLC & Ndombele

A) Nagelsmann commits bodies to high press when he tries to dominate games – when the press is broken the back 3 can be exposed
B) This is made worse by not having a natural shielding DM (having sold Diego Demme). Laimer has played role but is naturally a box-to-box midfielder

C) Inconsistent CB selections – Ibrahima Konaté's injury means Nagelsmann has flip-flopped between a back 4 & back 3. As well as sometimes playing natural RB Klostermann as a CB. And vs Bayern, he even played Halstenberg (natural LB) & Klostermann in a back 3

3. Signing of Bergwijn has signalled intent for Mourinho to adopt a counter-attacking approach in Kane's absence
- Son, Moura & Bergwijn are a front 3 who can all exploit Leipzig's high line with their pace attacking from wide channels

4. Lo Celso's rich vein of form in a deeper position in the double pivot plus the potential inclusion of Ndombele is the ideal combination to break thru Leipzig's press & initiate counters - see their 'double one-two' to setup Son's goal vs City

•If Spurs do set-up in a block, they'll have to be very careful of 2 things
1. Late runners into the box from either Forsberg or Sabitzer – Sabitzer scored one of the goals of the tournament vs Zenit like this. And Forsberg scored a header from a late run into the box vs Benfica

2. Nagelsmann often exploits Werner's versatility to attack an opposition weakness. Against Bayern he placed him on the right to get behind the adventurous & inexperienced Alphonso Davies. Expect him to use him on the left on occasion vs Aurier who flies forwards

-The other thing Leizpig have is the ammunition -Laimer plays 2.8 accurate long balls per game and Upamecano played 5.8 (for reference VVD is at 5.2)

Atlético Madrid vs Liverpool

•The rigid 4-4-2 shape Atléti follow is the only setup that LFC have struggled in this season,in both games vs Napoli
-Main issue for LFC is the wide midfielders in the system can be used to constantly track their full-backs (main playmaking threat)

- Trent & Robertson made 0 key passes in Naples because of Insigne & Callejon's excellent work rate in tracking back

•If the playmaking threats of LFC's full-backs becomes limited then their midfield selection becomes key
-Fabinho, Milner & Henderson started both Napoli games (Wijnaldum replaced the injured Fabinho at Anfield)
- LFC created precisely zero big chances in both games combined !!!

-Therefore, Keita's impact (likely in the home leg at Anfield) & his ability to dribble & break lines could be crucial, especially with Oxlade-Chamberlain's relatively average form

•Atléti have big issues in attack
-Costa has returned to training but hasn't played a game since November
- Morata & Joao Félix also injured

- May be forced to play Vitolo & Correa as a pair up front- looked poor vs Real. Simeone's striking duos often built on a template of someone who links play in between the lines alongside someone who is clinical in the box. Vitolo & Correa offer neither trait as natural wide men.

• Atléti's main build-up patterns that LFC should be wary of
1. Long balls into wide channels which feeds into Vitolo & Correa's style of play. Partey & Saul are excellent at winning 2nd balls

2.Partey,Saul+Llorente often look to receive the ball and dribble out of tight spaces to progress the play - mainly as CBs Savic & Hermoso have limited passing ranges
3. Very surprised if Saul doesn't positions himself on Trent (5ft 9) from goal-kicks. Did it vs Carvajal (5ft 8).

Dortmund vs PSG - the battle of the attacks

•Tuchel slowly converted PSG into using a 4-4-2 shape that can morph into a 4-2-4 – including the quatre fantastiques (Neymar, Di Maria, Mbappé & Icardi

-First used it vs Real Madrid in Nov when Neymar came on for Gueye at HT. Actually worked poorly from a defensive POV and Tuchel ditched it to bring on an extra midfielder after 30 mins --> PSG came back to 2-2
-After the game Tuchel said the 4 can never work together

-Clear this was motivational talk
-After not picking them together for 3 games, they returned to them in mid-December. And they clearly had been working on a cohesive setup in training
- The four have started 8 games together since - 7W, 1D, 0L, 28 goals scored, 6 goals conceded!

- Di Maria is the key balancing piece in this system - not only does he provide genuine width when PSG have the ball but he also tucks inside to form a midfield 3 with Gueye & Verratti when PSG don't have the ball to ensure PSG arent over-run in midfield

- Di Maria is also having a phenomenal season from a creativity POV
Big chances created in Ligue 1 this season – Di Maria has the most with 25, then there is a HUGE gap to Mbappé who is second with 11

- The attacking 4-4-2 is also more viable against a BVB side who often themselves only play a double pivot in a 3-4-2-1 of Brandt (may be injured)-Witsel so they aren't likely to get outnumbered in midfield vs BVB who also only play a midfield double pivot

•One issue for PSG is Icardi's poor form
- 1 goal in 6 matches. And Even worse than that, just 0.7 xG in those games, so he's not even getting in goalscoring positions
- Will Tuchel re-integrate the outgoing Cavani in his place? Scored a crucial late clinching goal vs Lyon

•Some hope for BVB
1. Consistent theme of PSG conceding goals vs pace vs their high line
- Lyon– scored their 2nd goal doing this with Toko Ekambi running clear & squaring to Moussa Dembele
- In their 3-3 draw with Monaco- Gelson Martins scored and Keita Balde assisted thru this

-As we've talked about previously Erling Haaland thrives on the intelligence & timing of his runs in-behind defences:

2. Also 5 of the 7 goals conceded in PSG's 3 league losses actually came from crosses from their left side – LB is a big issue for them

- The man they signed to solve the issue (Abdou Diallo) is injured
- Bernat is also now injured
-They are now down to their 3rd choice LB Layvin Kurzawa who they even almost sold in January

-Doesn't bode well for PSG given one of BVB’s main threats will come from the right in Sancho– 12G & 13A in 18 starts- only man in Europe’s top 5 leagues to have double figures for goals & assists.
-Hakimi overlapping as well (4 goals & 3 big chances created in the 6 group games

• Overall Reus & possible Brandt injuries tip the balance in PSG’s favour
- Reus is 14th highest attacking output in Europe’s top 5 leagues – G/A every 88 minutes. Gotze as the backup 10 may not be sufficient – only started 6 games all season

-Brandt since moving deeper into the double pivot was enabling BVB to dominate more games. Can-Witsel will relinquish some of that control

Real Madrid vs Man City

•Zidane has completely flipped Real's identity from his previous stint in charge.
- Since October he had really made them a defensive wall
- Unbeaten in La Liga since matchday ten – 14 games, 10W, 4D, 0L & just 5 goals conceded

- 3 reasons why they've become so good defensively:
1.System – Zidane made them more centrally compact, selecting a minimum of 3 central midfielders. Both using a 4-3-3 & 4-4-2 diamond. He's also often supplemented the midfield by playing midfielders like Isco & Valverde out wide

2.Ferland Mendy – unbeaten in his 12 starts with just 4 goals conceded. They key with with Mendy is that he has the pace & intelligence to sweep Ramos (who plays left-sided CB) when he steps out the defensive line to confront attackers, which he loves to do

3. Fede Valverde
-unbeaten in his 12 starts with just 5 goals conceded
-Zidane has often rotated Kroos & Modric in favour of the Uruguayan. With the duo ageing & leaving Casemiro with too much work to do off-the-ball

- Valverde has provided the ball-winning & mobility to track runners to help him out. This has also allowed Kroos/Modric to thrive in the final third with more cover behind them - duo have 22 goals & assists between them this season

• Due to Real's central compactness
- Man City’s most likely avenue of success will be the wings – this is something which has declined for Man City this season
- Sterling has scored just two goals in the six-yard box this season. And you can see the decline in shots/goals below

1. No Sané to play on the left & drill those crosses across the box to the far post
2. This has then resulted in Pep playing Inverted wingers - Sterling on the left & Mahrez/Bernardo on the right. Makes those types of crosses less likely

3. Cancelo & Mendy could help compensate for this by overlapping with their strong attacking output, but they've only started 18 league games between them

• This former strength of City's crossing is made even more important by the fact that Real have shown a wekaness from defending them
- Most significantly, 2 of the 4 goals conceded vs Sociedad were from crosses

- And both goals in the 2-2 draw vs PSG also came from Mbappé & Sarabia having too much time & space on the edge of the box
- Ramos & Varane have a definite weakness of being stuck on their heels when there is good movement around them

- Therefore, it could be very useful for Pep to:
A) Select Cancelo for his overlapping threat
B) Select Mendy for the same reason
C) Play Sterling & Bernardo on their stronger right & left sides so they can play crosses in
D) Maybe play KDB in a wide right role to do similar

•Zidane has developed two different methods of play for Real, enabling them to react to the game state, which is a very useful trait for knockout football – best characterised by the recent league game vs Atleti,

1st half– played the purest form of a 4-5-1 that we've seen, this season with 5 midfielders (Casemiro, Kroos, Modric & Valverde and Isco out wide). This took the central compactness we talked about to new levels

- 2nd half– 0-0 and Zidane subbed off Isco & Kroos for Vinicius & Vazquez to gain greater attacking emphasis. Real looked immediately better with quality wide combinations including Ferland & Vinicius combining to assist Benzema's winner

Chelsea vs Bayern

•Important for Chelsea in this tie is to NOT just sit back in a low block vs Bayern - Bayern have destroyed teams outside the top 5 recently (Mainz, Schalke, Hertha, Wolfsburg) by an aggregate of 14-1

- Common theme has been those teams lacking an out-ball or counter-attacking threat up front. Especially visible vs Schalke (who were considered title contenders up until this loss) who opted to play without an out-and-out number 9

- Both Matondo & Gregoritsch both prefer playing off a main striker. With the diminutive Harit behind them, Schalke had nobody to hold the ball-up, so they were trapped in their own half with 1 shot on target & a 5-0 loss

•Therefore, there are 3 important things for Chelsea to do

1. Tammy Abraham to hold the ball up - he has done fairly well at this during the season, winning 4.9 duels per league game (Aguero- 1.8, Firmino- 4.1, Auba- 2.3)

2. Counter-attacking threat
- best to select 2/3 of Chelsea's biggest dribbling threats (Willian, CHO & Pulisic) out wide, with the other to come off the bench

- this is especially important down Bayern's right as the Pavard-Boateng axis isn't the quickest
- Leipizig created 2 big chances for Sabitzer & Werner down this side and Leon Bailey scored twice from running in behind this side for Leverkusen

3. Gain some control in midfield
-Thiago-Kimmich double pivot is perhaps best short passing midfield in Europe. Even Goretzka drops deep from 10 position to get involved in build-up. Can be dangerous to allow them to get into an uninterrupted rhythm as Schalke & many others have.

- Therefore 4-3-3 and a midfield 3 of Jorginho-Kovacic (these two can help Chelsea gain some control)-Kanté (can be free to be at his ball-winning best vs Kimmich & Thiago, would be the best option

- We saw Lampard flip to a 4-3-3 from a back 3 at the Emirates and it instantly gave them more control. They also dominated proceedings vs Arsenal at Stamford Bridge with this system but were just wasteful with their chances (5 big chances to Arsenal's 1)

4. Need to be more clinical
- Tammy has missed 8 big chances in his last 7 games
- However, he has started 29 out of 31 PL/UCL matches, which is a massive jump in load from playing Championship football last season
- Maybe a case of him being refreshed after the winter break

Lyon vs Juventus

•Juve
- Not an Allegri Juve– uncomfortable defending in a block (dropped 10 pts from winning positions)
- Defensive regression- 23 goals conceded in 23 games (1 goal/game) but 30 goals conceded in 38 games last season (0.79/game)
- Also due to Chiellini injury

- However, this isn't fully a Sarri Juve either – allowed promoted side like Verona to obtain 46% possession and come from behind to win the game through controlling large portions in the second half vs Juve

•Lyon
- Injuries to Depay and Reine-Adelaide may be the final nail in the coffin for Lyon in terms of winning this tie – especially considering they sold Fekir & Ndombele in the summer

- This has led to Houssem Aouar having to play as a 10 in their 4231 which doesn't suit him as much as being a ball progressor into the final third (Iniesta-type role) in a deeper midfield position

- 16 year old Rayan Cherki has come in to play on the right wing, but although he is a massive talent, he showed how difficult it is for someone his age to impact big games vs PSG

- Rudi Garcia has improved Lyon's form significantly since being appointed though. Winning 1.64 points per game compared to his predecessor's (Sylvinho) 1.00
- This improvement is more impressive considering the aforementioned injuries

Atalanta vs Valencia

• Atalanta's squad is just packed full of goalscoring and creative prowess - 2nd top scorers in Europe's top 5 leagues with 63 goals
- Their 3-4-1-2 enables them to play 2 strikers (Zapata & Iličić) as well as two creative midfielders (Papu Gómez & Pašalić)

- These 4 have 54 G/A in 71 league starts this season
- Then Luis Muriel is a weapon off the bench with 12 goals in 9 starts
- Even left wing-back Robin Gosens has 7 goals & 5 assists this season

- Atalanta's defence has been a weak point but the Mattia Caldara has returned on loan from Milan. His previous spell on loan from Juve put him on a trajectory as one of the world's best young CBs before rupturing his ACL

• Valencia - a team of partnerships in their 4-4-2
- Rodrigo-Maxi Gómez compliment each other well as Rodrigo drops deep & into wide channels whilst Maxi poaches in the box
-Rodrigo may be injured for the 1st leg but Gonçalo Guedes has fortunately returned to deputise if needed.

- Kondogbia-Parejo: Kondogbia provides the ball-winning, whilst Parejo is the conductor with a wonderful range of passing
- Valencia also have attacking output from wide with 19 year old wonderkid Ferran Torres scoring 4 goals & creating 7 big chances in 18 starts

-Recent draws vs Real & Atléti and win vs Barca shows big-game pedigree
-Error-prone CB pair of Gabriel & Diakhaby remains a weakness whilst full-backs Wass & José Gayà are more concerned with flying forwards than defending. Loan of Florenzi from Roma may help remedy that at RB.

Napoli vs Barcelona

•Gattuso reverted Napoli identity to more possession-oriented than Ancelotti- even had more ball vs Juve & their ex-manager possession-advocator himself Sarri- - achieved by switching to 4-3-3 from Ancelotti's 4-4-2 to control games with extra midfielder

- Unlucky Koulibaly-Manolas have started 1 of last 11 games due to injuries but still got clean sheets vs Inter & Lazio and a 2-1 win vs Juve
-Buying Demme from Leipzig in January has helped with this defensive stability (defensive shield in the squad to finally replace Diawara)

•Barca
o Inconsistent results since Suárez's injury & Setién's arrival has been a lack of penalty box presence
- Arthur & Frenkie both create from deeper positions
- Ansu Fati is chalk on his boot wide-man & won’t get into box
- Messi & Griezmann both drop in between lines

o But recently weeks Messi taken his creative influence to another level
-7 assists in last 4 league games carried Barca to 4/4 wins
-Coincides with returning to playing off the right rather than as a striker where he was less effective in the Copa loss vs Bilbao & Valencia loss

- Setién seems to have ditches his favoured 3 CB system which he thrived with at Betis and used at the start of his Barca reign, to switch to a 4-3-3, in order to facilitate this change of role for Messi

END OF THREAD

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