Thread by @yaneerbaryam

How can we stop pandemics? Pandemic Math explains: Turn rapid exponential growth to rapid exponential decline. Change the contact network by (1) targeted individual isolation (2) early symptom identification (3) reduce social connectivity (4) travel and group boundaries.

@nntaleb @DrTedros Key point: No matter how many people are infected, if we eliminate contacts, we are just one infection period away from eliminating the pathogen.

@nntaleb @DrTedros Many are worried about lack of compassion in quarantines.

Acting early is compassionate: Many fewer get sick and die, and we can support and care for those in quarantine.

Acting late means many people are sick and desperation may reduce ability to care for, and compassion.

@nntaleb @DrTedros On a positive note, after two days of 8 and 9 new cases in Singapore, the last three days have 5, 3, and 2 new cases. While this is only a few data points, it is worth recalling that at 50% per day growth of the early outbreak in China the numbers would be 14, 20 and 30.

@nntaleb @DrTedros Another helpful comparison: If the outbreak in China had continued at the original 50% per day growth (without travel restrictions and lockdown) the number of new confirmed cases just today would be 6 million, the total cumulative number would be 20 million.