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BREAKING: Additional significant drop in China Coronavirus case counts today. Downward trend is now for six days. Decreases in new confirmed and new suspected. Reasonable to say this is the beginning of the end of the outbreak in China.
Here are the counts of confirmed cases: Today 2,478. The peak was 58% higher. Since the peak on 2/4:

2/4 3887
2/5 3694
2/6 3143
2/7 3399
2/8 2656
2/9 3062
Today 2/10 2478
International (non China) case counts. The growth exponent is 1.14 (14% new cases per day). Also indicates cases without cases from Cruise ship in Yokohama. Concerns on reporting reliability are very justified at the global level.
Additional update: The number of suspected untested cases is continuing to decrease. This says the number of tests per day is more than the rate of new cases. See attached green triangles.
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Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
BREAKING: New dramatic drop in China Coronavirus case counts today to only 2015 new confirmed (down from yesterday 2475, peak 3887) See blue dots on plots attached. One week of declining trend.
Note 1: For those concerned about limited test kits: Untested symptomatic cases are included in the “suspected” category (see plots attached to first tweet).
Note 2: Today twitter traffic suggested that China changed case definitions to reduce case counts. We analyzed policies (attached). Changes can only increase confirmed cases not decrease them. They don't narrow conditions they expand them.
Read 10 tweets
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Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
Levels of complexity thinking:
0) Using statistical / calculus assumptions*
1) Recognizing stat/calc assumptions are often wrong! See: Dependencies, Extreme events, Nonlinearity, High dimensionality, Indirect effects, Unintended consequences, … 1/
2) Using a different set of assumptions: Network, Agents, Fat tails, … (People generally choose one: I.e. hammer looking for nail).* 2/
3) Recognizing all assumptions are sometimes valid (universality classes). Identify the right assumptions for this situation using Patterns, Possibilities, Multiscale analyses. 3/
Read 5 tweets
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Yaneer Bar-Yam
@yaneerbaryam
Money is scale: Larger scales can ignore small impacts. The poorer you are, the greater the complexity. The wealthier you are, the lower the complexity.
Example: How much money can you loose before you care? $0.1, $1, $10, $100, $1,000, $10,000 ...
Example #2: FU money, and generally being able to chose who to interact with.
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Cara TXZEAL
@Cara_TXZEAL
🦠🚨🦠 Weekend #coronavirus thread. 🦠🚨🦠
"Official" numbers & global news. "Official" numbers to be updated this afternoon.

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Christophe Barraud🛢
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🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
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