Frigates, Destroyers and some cool graphics explaining why the recent "15 RN escorts" stories in the newspapers aren't telling the whole story in some rather important ways. 
First of all here's the key for these graphics.
Blue = In the water, avalable for tasking (including working up and training).
Black = In refit, out of the water and not available for tasking.
Grey = Laid up without a full crew (including units allocated for Harbour Training).
Blue = In the water, avalable for tasking (including working up and training).
Black = In refit, out of the water and not available for tasking.
Grey = Laid up without a full crew (including units allocated for Harbour Training).
Orange ships are those which have received significant power and propulsion upgrades. These include the Type 45 PIP and Type 23 PGMU upgrades.
The numbers at the top and bottom represent the number of escorts and OPVs in the water & crewed. i.e. the number of blue/orange ships.
The numbers at the top and bottom represent the number of escorts and OPVs in the water & crewed. i.e. the number of blue/orange ships.
As you can see, despite nominally having 19 escorts at present, the number of ships crewed and in the water has, since 2017, hovered around 10-12.
These are some projections of what will happen to that all-important number, not the total but the number of ships in the water, crewed and available for tasking and training out to 2040.
As you can see, as the Type 23 Life Extension refit and Type 45 PIP upgrade programmes progress the number of units available and in the water could (counter-intuitively) increase in 2023-24, despite the first two General Purpose Type 23s paying off in this timeframe.
By the mid 2020s both Type 45 PIP and the Type 23 LIFEX refits are now pretty much complete, the number of escorts available remainins stable, comparable with 2017/18 levels. I have, reasonably I think, presumed the GP T23 crews would go to re-activate the "Harbour Training" T45.
2027/2028 sees the start of significant change as two new classes enter service. The first Type 26 (HMS Glasgow) and the first four Type 31s. During this timeframe I've considered that as the Type 31s come on-stream they may replace some of the B2 River class forward deployed.
This allows some of the B2 River class to return to the UK to take on the fisheries protection role, while the 25 year old (and likely very hard worked at this point) Batch 1 River class OPVs pay off.
Having weathered the initial slump in overall escort numbers in the mid-2020s, the number of escort hulls available climbs again in the late 2020s/early 2030s. So significantly that this period might place substantial strain on the RN's available manpower to crew all of them.
The ships in the purple box and the purple text represent a little (modest) fantasy fleet hypothetical, where a second batch of three Type 31 frigates are ordered and added to the end of the "hot" production line for delivery in 2029/30. This puts even more strain on manning!
The main pinch-point in the early 2030s is in the number of anti-submarine ships, as the slower Type 26 build rate fails to keep up with Type 23s leaving service.
(this model assumes the delivery rate for the T26 Batch 2 remains the same as the Batch 1, this may not be the case)
(this model assumes the delivery rate for the T26 Batch 2 remains the same as the Batch 1, this may not be the case)
Despite this, the total number of escort ships in the water and available remains stable and above 2017-2020 levels.
Further stability in the 2033-34 period, with the number of anti-submarine frigates declining to its lowest point in 2034.
2035-2028 is where the number of available ships hits its lowest point post-2020.
From this point on I've increased the number of Type 45 destroyers in refit to represent the implications of their advanced age and a possible end of life refit/LIFEX. This is an educated guess.
From this point on I've increased the number of Type 45 destroyers in refit to represent the implications of their advanced age and a possible end of life refit/LIFEX. This is an educated guess.
The late 2030s see another Batch 2 Type 26 delivered but overall stability in ships availabile, suported by most of the frigate fleet by now being both relatively new (most are under 10 years old) and likely increasingly technically mature.
2039/40 sees a small uptick as the penultimate Type 26 is delivered. While this period is where the first Type 45 would likely be paid off (aged ~30yrs) we're now so far into the future, and a programme which hasn't even started yet, that it's not really possible to judge.
So there you have it, the next 20 years of escort fleet development and its implications for the number of ships the RN has that are crewed and in the water.
If you've been paying close attention you may have noticed that the lowest point may be this year!
If you've been paying close attention you may have noticed that the lowest point may be this year!
So while the number of frigates and destroyers may very well fluctuate and at times fall below the present 19 the reality is that the number of ships actually available for use won't really decrease significantly and is rather unlikely to fall below the present level.
If anything the limiting factor may very well be trained crew for the ships the RN will have available by the late 2020s!
I would note that this is based on my analysis and extrapolation of the available open source information. Some of it may be wrong, especially as it pushes the bubble beyond the 2020s, and obviously there are 3 SDSRs in there where *everything could change*
As with all these things though, we maybe need to dig a little deeper than the headlines that scream "National Embarassment" and rent-a-quote from Admiral Lord West (hallowed be his name).
#EngagingStrategyOut
#EngagingStrategyOut
