Thread by @CoppetainPU

I don’t usually do “quick takes” but there's always room for an exception or two.

Here’s one on the EU’s negotiating mandate for talks with the UK

It’s a broad-brush look. Others will scrutinise the detail (as they already have with earlier drafts)

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

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In general the negotiating mandate identifies subjects to be negotiated with a lot of potential areas of cooperation or adherence to international standards or agreements.

Experts can spot the likely direction of travel, as here 👇🏽

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https://twitter.com/Ortino_Federico/status/1232325332784558086?s=20

But overall the mandate leaves lots of room for negotiation to fill in the detail.

We know that some areas are difficult, eg, reciprocal access for fisheries 👇🏽 but even in this section there’s potential room for cooperation (if goodwill prevails)

consilium.europa.eu/media/42736/st…

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As for the level playing field provisions, almost all of them refer to what applies at the end of the transition, with no rollback.

The only area I found where the EU wants the UK to keep up with EU rules (“dynamic alignment”) is on state aid.

consilium.europa.eu/media/42736/st…

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On services, the mandate allows quite an broad and ambitious outcome, with significant improvements over the basic WTO commitments. How much can be achieved is another matter.

But overall, the mandate allows for a huge agreement, given time.

consilium.europa.eu/media/42736/st…

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Finally, those who don’t understand WTO agreements will be delighted to see GATT Article 24 mentioned.

Of course it’s there. If you do a free trade agreement, it has to comply with GATT Article 24 (and GATS Article 5).

(Sorry, I couldn't resist)

consilium.europa.eu/media/42736/st…

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Meanwhile, @DavidHenigUK is taking a closer look at some of the details.

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1232603935577460736?s=20

@DavidHenigUK And for balance here’s an extremely quick take on the UK’s document.

1. Despite the belligerent talk, there’s quite a lot of room for agreement and cooperation. They key here is time.

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assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

2. The EU’s agreements with Japan (EPA) and Canada (CETA) are cited frequently as models. How that translates into actual agreement text remains to be seen.

3. In some areas the two are far apart (state aid/subsidies, fisheries)

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assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

4. In some areas the UK still hasn’t sorted out its own position.

Here 👇🏽 paragraph 71 is similar to the EU’s mandate, but paragraph 72 is not and will depend on talks with others (think US, Australia). How can that be negotiated?

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assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Finally, let’s not forget this👇🏽

An outline in 3 months (June), a final text by September is, let’s say, “ambitious”.

If there is a deal, it will likely be very weak, with some shocks in some key areas of the economy. How vocal will those areas be?

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https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1232982391565754368?s=20

P.S. This is fairly significant, the repeated use of “these provisions should not be subject to the Agreement's dispute resolution mechanism outlined in Chapter 32”

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1232979812643418112?s=20