Thread by @unseen1_unseen

I want to revisit this article because it's very important and it tells people a lot of things if you really read it. In this thread I'll highlight some of the more important points.

https://twitter.com/unseen1_unseen/status/1233532176483995650

"it’s easy to imagine a frantic dash for the exits in which everyone is selling everything at whatever price they can get. That’s not, however, what market veterans have seen this week."

In other words this wasn't an unplanned "sell off" it was an orderly planned decline.

"they describe market trading volume about where it should be."

No spike in volume. In an unplanned "sell-off" volume always spikes bigly.

"Orders are getting filled though spreads are wide between what sellers are asking and what buyers are willing to pay"

Buyers were there they just weren't paying up for the stock. Sellers were able to exit from positions but at a lower price. In a "sell-off" buyers are scarce.

"Retail clients have been largely calm, even amid a fusillade of red"

Retail clients here means us, the avg person. In other words, the people even with the media and some on "wall street" trying to manufacture a stampede, the people didn't stampede. 🤔🤔

"There was no prevailing consensus over whether the selling was justified, but rather the idea that momentum and machines have seized the moment, and this, too, shall pass."

In other words a few people started a domino effect of selling hoping to start a stampede and failed.

And they failed because no one really believed their story on why we should sell. The economy is good, the virus may cause problems but isn't right now. They put the cart before the horse.

""We let the high-frequency traders basically take over the market, and that’s what it is. You just have to deal with it,” said Michael Cohn,"

Again a "few people" wanted, for whatever reason, the market to go down.

"It’s short and quick, not painful and long. I’ve gotten zero calls from clients this week. The fact is, the public hasn’t even panicked at all.”"

In other words, dominos were tripped by a few people. Stacked dominos being dominos did what dominos do when tripped.

The article is basically telling people that our market can be taken down (to a certain degree) at any time by a few big players tripping certain switches.....

“It’s been incredibly orderly,” JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told CNBC

"Orderly"🤔🤔🤔 when dominos fall they fall in an orderly fashion like clockwork even. Orderly that is until today's trading....

"Friday added yet another chapter....A choppy day of trading saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average lose more than 1,100 points early on, more than halve those losses in the afternoon, then slip back toward a steeper decline before finally finishing off 357 points for the day."

Today was different.

"There was a plethora of theories about what was happening......though investors had as little understanding about what was causing such an aggressive tumble"

It didn't even make sense to the professionals. Sure there were a lot of reasons to sell......

"Market pros cited a trail of unsettling headlines that helped trigger this week’s crush"

BUT

“The market is waiting for peak panic,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “It’s waiting for capitulation, where it’s just exhausted.”

No panic 🤔🤔

In fact:

"“You have to believe that with the ferocity of the selling, there are those mechanisms in there other than human selling, the software that exacerbates that selling. It has that feel,” she added."
🤔🤔🤔

Then this little nugget:

"Though there may not be outright panic, there is a high level frustration."

Who is having high level frustration and why?

From the next couple of paragraphs its clear that the frustration is at the lack of panic. They just didn't stampede people.

Here are some of the clues to frustration

"Those looking to downplay the coronavirus threat have been comparing it to the flu"

And

"Things like the coronavirus present unknowns to the market that make the impact difficult to predict."

Damn it they didn't panic😭

Some more flavor

"It’s Wall Street vs. a virus. Who wins?” Krosby said."

It's a stalemate,, in other words. No panic. Plenty of buyers but only at lower prices. Sellers have to lower their prices to get the buyers.

Also the article gives a hint to what might be the ultimate plan of the "orderly sell off"

“If this becomes a scare not just in the stock market and companies are forced to lay off people because of this, then you’ve now created another feedback loop."🤔🤔🤔

They tripped the media dominos which tripped the market dominos which will hopefully trip dominos outside of the market which will cause more market dominos to fall...🤕🤕

"That’s what this is, (an attempt to form) one feedback loop after another.”"

And there you have it.😎

The article ends with pleas to stay out of the market, not to buy the dip, and thus screw over their attempt to create a feedback loop.

BUT

They acknowledge at the end of the article they are running out of ammo to cause a panic/feedback loop.

You see the stocks are actually backed up by real value and the cheaper stocks get the more people see the underlying value

"but we’re starting to see very good companies being pulled down more than they should, and that’s going to give us opportunities.”

In conclusion, the article explains a "few" people tried to use the "news" to start flipping certain triggers. The triggers flipped more selling. All in an effort to create a "panic" that would bleed over into the greater economy causing another series of feedback loops which

...would then bleed back to the market causing more selling and more economic problems leading to an economic crash but it's not going to plan because the people didn't panic and now they are running out of ammo.

Or at least that's what this article is saying between the lines🤕