So thank God it looks like the coronovirus is not as deadly as first feared. Some may wonder then why organizations & the govt are reacting to it differently than the ordinary flu. A few observations. /1
A. The L strain (the more aggressive strain) is quite fatal for the elderly & those with compromised immune or respiratory systems or other serious underlying medical issues. We should try to protect those populations from a mass epidemic. /2
B. Because it is new, there is no vaccine for it & our population has no natural immunity to it either, so transmission to vulnerable populations even from asymptomatic carriers will likely be quite high - higher than for the flu where we have vaccines & partial immunities. /3
C. A significant transmission rate of the L strain, even w/o a fatality rate greater than the flu, could overwhelm the healthcare system of a locality as it did in Wuhan, because those who survive are seriously ill, requiring significant healthcare resources. /4
D. That situation also presents a greater likelihood that the healthcare workers themselves become infected & some die, further stressing the healthcare resources, in what could become a vicious cycle. /5
E. Even with the less aggressive S strain, a major outbreak could over stress the healthcare system with non-fatal, mild cases. Sheer numbers matter, & with no vaccine & no pre-existing immunities & a high transmission rate, an overwhelming number of cases is a possibility. /6
F. This is why the govt & organizations are sensibly taking steps to try to curb the number of cases even though the fatality rate, while serious, is not apocalyptic. Temporarily postponing or cancelling meetings, concerts, travel, etc. cuts the possible number of cases. /7
G. It may look like overkill at first blush & a hit to our economy for “no reason.” But the effect of unrestrained transmission on the economy & lives could be geometrically worse if we don’t hold down the numbers. /8
All of which is to say: do your part to prevent getting & spreading any kind of “cold” for the foreseeable future. Use good handwashing techniques; use tissues when you cough; stay home if you have a fever, etc. Also prepare in case there’s a quarantine or you get sick. /9
You should have a couple of weeks’ worth of food, water & basic medical supplies at your home all the time anyway. Look what happened in NYC a few years ago with the winter storm. /10
Also- a good point the media is not emphasizing: this virus (unlike some others) is easy to kill on surfaces with ordinary household cleaners - soap, bleach, Lysol, etc. 👍🏻
Spring cleaning, folks! /11
Spring cleaning, folks! /11
