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1/ Alas, I will *not* be attending #LowCarbDenver. I canceled my trip a few hours ago.

Needless to say, this is extremely heartbreaking as LCD is like home for me.

Yes, this is somewhat related to #covid19/#coronavirus...
2/ While I'm 99.9% sure I don't have the virus, I did travel at the beginning of Jan to Asia Pacific region - Macau, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Granted, (1) this was mainly before wider spread of the virus, and (2) no symptoms/sickness for weeks following...
3/ All that said, I feel the responsible thing to do is to exercise extreme caution right now given my recent travels for the #TheCCDoc.

I was certainly looking forward to seeing you all. But being overly cautious is certainly my preferred type of mistake vs the alternative.
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Dave Feldman
@DaveKeto
1/ The exponential growth of the worldwide cases (excluding China) have been very consistent. This graph is made simply by scraping the "All Cases" data from worldometers.info and excluding China's case data.

The exponential rate of change is nearly 1.19 the last 2 weeks.
2/ Here are the exact numbers:
3/ If you were to divide each row by the one before it, you'd come to multiples between 1.14 and 1.26, the mean average being (1.19). I'll add that third column here (rounding to the 2nd dec):
Read 15 tweets
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Dave Feldman
@DaveKeto
1/ Please RT --> #FlattenTheCurve Hidden Costs Explained with Animation

When you consider all the factors, the choice is clear. But some of them aren't that easy to see...

#coronavirus / #covid19
2/ Before now, when a catastrophe in one area, neighboring hospitals and clinics could support the one in need.

But what if every hospital and clinic is in need? Even the flatter curve will likely exceed our capacity, but that is still better than the alternative...
3/ If there's mass infection throughout our system, it won't just result in greater rates of intensive care and death for victims of #covid19 -- it will also do likewise for every major form of treatment. More people will suffer and die, including medical professionals themselves
Read 6 tweets
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Dave Feldman
@DaveKeto
1/ I think it's worth unpacking this to explain why I disagree with simply taking all fatalities against all cases detected to determine mortality rate (in this case 35/6000 = .6%).

Like most viruses people don't die immediately upon presenting symptoms.
2/ Let's take a typical symptomatic case where one dies:

(1) One gets infected and some time passes without symptoms.
...
(2) One begins showing symptoms. Some time passes with symptoms.
...
(3) Death

There are likely several days between steps (2) and (3) on average.
3/ If you don't gain any new cases and wait out everyone's current case until they either recover or die, then the number is likely accurate.

But if you are still adding cases in real time, those incoming new cases will artificially deflate the overall mortality rate.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
If you're looking for someone compromised on China, you have this theater and its 'unbreakable friendship.' news.yahoo.com/china-declines…
Xi's latest appearance on a call with Trump this morning is a different story, merely parroting the "People's War" language that state media has orchestrated in recent days
This question has only deepened for Chinese and the world in recent days, with the tragedy only growing day after day, and Wuhan's whistleblower now fallen: where is Xi Jinping? time.com/5778994/corona…
Read 2810 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
@CDCgov While I wait for more info to develop in the coming days, make sure to follow @JaneLytv's fantastic coverage of the misinformation that is spreading:
@CDCgov @JaneLytv This is absolutely untrue and there is no reporting to validate it. What is happening in Wuhan is not related to a biological weapon, or a human-caused accidental release, and this emergent reporting of a Chinese national being removed from a Canadian lab is in no way related. Image
@CDCgov @JaneLytv This is trash reporting that is by definition fake news. The Wuhan coronavirus was not released by a lab, and there is no evidence to in any way suggest that. washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/…
Read 2700 tweets
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Daniel Sinclair
@_DanielSinclair
Now Japan too 👀 https://t.co/9yeEsUGHDx
It’s probably a good time to remember that the 2002 SARS outbreak killed 774 people across 37 countries and it had a 10% mortality rate. This one looks less deadly, but also looks ripe to — and actively is — going global. on.ft.com/2u6G7zV
Umm, any of y'all have room in your bunker? The Chinese government was withholding the severity of this outbreak & transmission capability, and the number of coronavirus cases has exploded😷
Read 2391 tweets
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Alex
@HuxRagdoll
I started a Hux/Poe fic about a thousand years ago, and I think it might be easier for me to write in twitfic form. So prepare for some angst and prisoner of war Hux...
A shuttle landed on the Resistance air strip, and everyone quickly gathered around it to get a look at the high-ranking prisoner they had captured. They watched as a tall, slim man, dressed all in black was marched off the ship. There was a hood over the man's head
and his hands were cuffed behind his back, yet he walked with his head held high. His guards held him by the shoulders and hussled him across the air strip and towards the prison block. The prisoner was taken into the most secure cell the resistance had, away from prying eyes.
Read 262 tweets
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BasedPoland
@BasedPoland
Just got a phone call from my family in my hometown Malmö, Sweden. A woman was shot dead a few hours ago on our street. She, a man &her baby were walking home when 2 hooded shooters ran up. Our neighbor filmed 1 shooter. My family wants to leave Malmö. Told them to move to Poland
"Witnesses say several masked attackers fired 8-10 shots.

One witness said the woman had been CARRYING A BABY at the time she was hit by a bullet

The man she was with went into shock, screaming that the child "needed its mother"

Link for disbelievers
thelocal.se/20190826/woman…
My hometown Malmö (320 000 inhab.) has the highest murder rate in Sweden (3,4 out of 100 000 inhab.) and the 4th highest in Europe after Pristina (Kosovo) Tallinn (Estonia) & Riga (Latvia).

Malmö has the highest rate of gang murders in Europe though.
breitbart.com/europe/2017/09…
Read 7 tweets
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Elliot Alderson
@fs0c131y
Few hours ago, the account of @SrBachchan with his 37.4M followers has been hacked. There is a high probability that the hacker is @NoyanAyt2002 1/
First, he tweeted the profile of @SrBachchan without the profile picture and a 🤫
The hack has been heavily commented on Twitter. Then, he bragged about been on the top hashtags.
Read 16 tweets

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