1/ The exponential growth of the worldwide cases (excluding China) have been very consistent. This graph is made simply by scraping the "All Cases" data from worldometers.info and excluding China's case data.
The exponential rate of change is nearly 1.19 the last 2 weeks.
The exponential rate of change is nearly 1.19 the last 2 weeks.
2/ Here are the exact numbers:
3/ If you were to divide each row by the one before it, you'd come to multiples between 1.14 and 1.26, the mean average being (1.19). I'll add that third column here (rounding to the 2nd dec):
4/ You can see how this works pretty easily...
The second row, 10,292 is 1.2x that of the first row, 8,559.
The third row, 12,746 is 1.24x the second row, 10,292.
And so on...
The second row, 10,292 is 1.2x that of the first row, 8,559.
The third row, 12,746 is 1.24x the second row, 10,292.
And so on...
5/ In other words, you can take any day (including today) and predict tomorrow's numbers will be around 1.19x that number.
Given yesterday's number of cases excluding China was at 88,717 -- we could ballpark today's cases to land around 105,573.
Given yesterday's number of cases excluding China was at 88,717 -- we could ballpark today's cases to land around 105,573.
6/ Thus, while crude, we can make a fairly simple projection if this exponential rate of change continues.
BUT -- before I show you those projections, I want to emphasize there are two big common ways this rate changes that are both very relevant -- please stay to the end.
BUT -- before I show you those projections, I want to emphasize there are two big common ways this rate changes that are both very relevant -- please stay to the end.
7/ Here are the projections assuming we stayed near a rate of change at 1.19.
Thus, we'll likely hit 100k cases outside China by tomorrow. 200k in four days (Mar 20), 500k by Mar 25, and a million by Mar 29th.
Thus, we'll likely hit 100k cases outside China by tomorrow. 200k in four days (Mar 20), 500k by Mar 25, and a million by Mar 29th.
8/ That dataset gives us the following graph*
*(Again, please read the entire thread before reacting to this)
*(Again, please read the entire thread before reacting to this)
9/ There are several things that can change this trajectory, the largest two:
1) Extraordinary societal actions to limit spread, such as closing venues, business, schools, etc -- all of which is happening right now (to an extent).
2) Less available targets due to herd immunity.
1) Extraordinary societal actions to limit spread, such as closing venues, business, schools, etc -- all of which is happening right now (to an extent).
2) Less available targets due to herd immunity.
10/ We WILL eventually hit an "inflection point", where this exponential curve will start to slow down and new cases will have a negative rate of change -- and this is happening right now in South Korea, where they are hyper-vigilant at tacking this crisis.
11/ All that said, we in the US have quite a bit of catching up to do to get their levels, both in social distancing behaviors and testing capability. Thus, I don't think our inflection point will be as near as theirs without more extraordinary steps being taken.
12/ I know I'd delivering a lot of bad news in this thread, but it's important for everyone (including myself) to at least see where our inertia could be taking us.
Again-- and with emphasis-- we will get through this, just as we've gotten through every pandemic before this one.
Again-- and with emphasis-- we will get through this, just as we've gotten through every pandemic before this one.
13/ While our global economy has facilitated the spread of this virus substantially, it is also going to prove to have many benefits in fighting it.
For example, at no time have we had such capability to communicate between the brightest minds on the planet via the Internet...
For example, at no time have we had such capability to communicate between the brightest minds on the planet via the Internet...
14/ Remember: you, your family, your friends, and everyone you know is a participant in that curve. It's a rate of change built on hosts for this virus and their contact with each other.
Physical contact with others or their environment helps the virus find a way.
Physical contact with others or their environment helps the virus find a way.
15/ Please take the time to help #FlattenTheCurve. We must all do our part to limit the spread as much as possible.
