1/ I think it's worth unpacking this to explain why I disagree with simply taking all fatalities against all cases detected to determine mortality rate (in this case 35/6000 = .6%).
Like most viruses people don't die immediately upon presenting symptoms.
Like most viruses people don't die immediately upon presenting symptoms.
2/ Let's take a typical symptomatic case where one dies:
(1) One gets infected and some time passes without symptoms.
...
(2) One begins showing symptoms. Some time passes with symptoms.
...
(3) Death
There are likely several days between steps (2) and (3) on average.
(1) One gets infected and some time passes without symptoms.
...
(2) One begins showing symptoms. Some time passes with symptoms.
...
(3) Death
There are likely several days between steps (2) and (3) on average.
3/ If you don't gain any new cases and wait out everyone's current case until they either recover or die, then the number is likely accurate.
But if you are still adding cases in real time, those incoming new cases will artificially deflate the overall mortality rate.
But if you are still adding cases in real time, those incoming new cases will artificially deflate the overall mortality rate.
4/ That's why I do it both ways to get some semblance of a range.
Deaths vs All Cases <-----> Death vs All Final Outcomes
The real rate is almost certainly somewhere in between.
Deaths vs All Cases <-----> Death vs All Final Outcomes
The real rate is almost certainly somewhere in between.
5/ South Korea's current total cases are 7,869, outcomes = 399, and deaths = 66.
Thus, real mortality rate is likely between:
66/7,869 (0.84%) and 66/399 (16.54%)
Now FWIW, I think it's closer to the former than the latter. But I don't know for sure.
Thus, real mortality rate is likely between:
66/7,869 (0.84%) and 66/399 (16.54%)
Now FWIW, I think it's closer to the former than the latter. But I don't know for sure.
