The logic of not moving to delay/ social distancing, and for example pre announcing but not enacting the notion of self isolation even for mild coughs etc is that behavioral scientists say the costs of going too early will mean people get bored and stop isolating later...
also timing effect from seasonal flu dying down, that Government calculates is material for a 10 day- two week holding off of bigger measures..
calculation must be that impact of people getting bored too early and confusion from seasonal flu worse than 2 week spread to thousands
calculation must be that impact of people getting bored too early and confusion from seasonal flu worse than 2 week spread to thousands
call from Govt and its experts... that either Italy path won’t be followed, or -ves of this, less than flu/boredom impact
Italy 2 weeks ago (24/2): 219 cases, 5 deaths.
(UK now - 319 cases, 5 deaths)
Italy today: 7985 positive cases, 9172 total. 463 deaths. Country locked down.
Italy 2 weeks ago (24/2): 219 cases, 5 deaths.
(UK now - 319 cases, 5 deaths)
Italy today: 7985 positive cases, 9172 total. 463 deaths. Country locked down.
Note that out of 9173 cases in Italy, 463 have died. It might me a reflection of Italy’s older population, where 28% are over 65... though pattern same in some parts of UK...
net result of all of this is NHS/ workers will have to manage a quicker spike (inevitable? Inescapable?) in cases up to 1000s, filling up hospitals, because Govt cant trust enough of wider public to quarantine themselves, or it costs too much, or impossible in free country
Government can, of course, decide to change/ “nudge” behaviour more, or at least try to. For example, Ireland, precisely because it wants everyone to self isolate, will fund 2 weeks sick pat for self isolation at €305/w even for self empl. But that would cost a lot of money too.
In terms of this chart... I think Government experts are trying to avoid flattening prematurely, accepting those costs, in order to prevent a second spike occurring...
As others pointing out Easter holiday may also be a factor.
v difficult decisions
As others pointing out Easter holiday may also be a factor.
v difficult decisions
One other factor, as I said on rerouting supply chains last month, big corporates well ahead of this right now. Running split teams, doing test days sending entire staff to work from home, even City traders - would be interested to know if you’ve taken part and whether it worked.
French health minister explains curve flattening with some charts... ministers drawing charts during interviews could catch on...
