I did some math. (Well, my much smarter friend did.)
World Population: 7.4 billion
Confirmed cases: 120,000
Famous people: ~10,000 (?)
If famous people were neither more likely to contract nor to be tested for corona, 0.12 famous people should, statistically, have corona.
World Population: 7.4 billion
Confirmed cases: 120,000
Famous people: ~10,000 (?)
If famous people were neither more likely to contract nor to be tested for corona, 0.12 famous people should, statistically, have corona.
Obviously, there are some reasons to think that famous people are more likely to contract corona:
They travel more. They probably meet more people. They may be more concentrated in parts of the world that have been more severely affected.
They travel more. They probably meet more people. They may be more concentrated in parts of the world that have been more severely affected.
Equally obviously, corona is also vastly more likely to be *detected* in famous people.
Since we are still sorely lacking in testing capacity, it's far more likely a famous person can get tested.
And the implication of that for how prevalent the virus already is are terrifying.
Since we are still sorely lacking in testing capacity, it's far more likely a famous person can get tested.
And the implication of that for how prevalent the virus already is are terrifying.
For those who want to check the math, here's the method I (or, um, my much smarter friend) followed:
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
