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How many people in the U.S. do you think have been infected with coronavirus? (The current number of confirmed cases is 1864.)

This poll will be repeated every 2 days...
(up to 1881 since the poll was posted, btw)
The best site I've found for up-to-the-minute coronavirus case count is Worldometer: worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…

Updated much faster than the Johns Hopkins map, and has many more useful graphs.
Now up to 1992.
Note: This is good. We want this number to go up for now, because right now this number only reflects the prevalence of TESTING, rather than the actual number of people infected.
Now up to 2030.

Holy hell, maybe we're actually starting to do testing.
Now 2269!
Now 2651. That's up around 1000 over 24 hours.

worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…

Remember, this number going up rapidly is a good sign FOR NOW, because it means we're moving toward widespread testing, which is crucial for stopping the epidemic.
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Avoid groups of people, wash your hands 🐇
@Noahpinion
Looking at this graph (via @AndyRowell), it looks like if we had done everything right like South Korea, we'd have ended up with maybe 65k infections and maybe 400 deaths. If Italy keeps bending the curve and we do as well as Italy, we could maaaaaaybe limit it to 350k/2000...
But if we keep flailing - refusing to do lockdowns except in a few places, disdaining social distancing out of pure machismo or partisan idiocy - we could easily be looking at tens of millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths.
In other words, if we keep flailing around like this for another few weeks, this thing could kill more Americans than World War 2.
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Avoid groups of people, wash your hands 🐇
@Noahpinion
I view tweets like this as highly irresponsible. The "UCSF estimate" cited was a worst-case scenario from a slide; it is NOT an official estimate. It is possible to keep the infection and death rate far below these numbers, if we act wisely. Don't say things like this.
Every person who tweets out any variant of "there's nothing we can do, we're all going to get it" is effectively encouraging inaction, and thus is actively harming our efforts to contain the disease.
Follow-up:

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Avoid groups of people, wash your hands 🐇
@Noahpinion
CDC director Robert Redfield's dogged, insane resistance to expanding coronavirus testing is like something out of a bad movie.
Any competent administration would have fired Redfield very early in this epidemic and replaced him with someone committed to expanding testing rather than resisting testing.
One downside of being a guy who doesn't watch many movies is that I don't know the exact names of movie villains to compare real-life villains to.
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Related threads

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Bansi Sharma
@bansisharma
1. How Has Taiwan Kept its #Coronavirus Infection Rate So Low?

Taiwan's number of COVID-19 infections is currently below 50, despite the island's proximity to the outbreak's epicenter on mainland China. Experts say early intervention has helped stop a public health crisis.
2. More than 2 months after a new virulent coronavirus emerged from the Chinese city of Wuhan, more than 100,000 people in dozens of countries have been infected.

The COVID-19 infection, however, has largely spared Taiwan, despite the island's proximity to the virus's epicenter.
3. When the outbreak first started in January, some experts predicted that Taiwan would have the highest number of cases outside of mainland China. However, while mainland China has had over 80,000 COVID-19 cases to date, Taiwan has kept its number of confirmed cases below 50.
Read 11 tweets
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Jake Morphonios 🇺🇸 🇵🇸 🇹🇭 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
@morphonios
This thread is dedicated to #coronavirus / #Covid19 information. The full name is "2019 novel Corona virus", shortened to 2019-nCoV & Covid-19. Its name comes from the crown-like spikes on the surface of the virus that resemble flares in the sun's corona.
Coronaviruses are zoonotic diseases, meaning that humans become infected by animals that have the disease. Scientists speculate that #Covid19 may have originated from Chinese bats or ant-eating pangolin. It is possible the virus crossed multiple animals before infecting humans.
Dozens infected in the #Covid19 outbreak worked in a Wuhan animal market, but tests of #coronavirus samples from the market have yet to identify a source. The close proximity of shoppers to animals in wet markets has made them breeding grounds for zoonotic diseases in the past.
Read 33 tweets
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Lori
@LJT_is_me
Molly Thot
#Coronavirus World Wide:

102,617 Confirmed cases
3,492 Deaths
57,368 Recovered

80% who contract COVID-19 are asymptomatic. The only people dying are the elderly / fragile health.

By comparison — US this influenza season:

15 million cases
140,000 hospitalizations
8,200 deaths
Taking a quote out of context by the President is CLASSIC yellow journalism and FAKE NEWS by the Blue Skid Mark inkshitters.

It's no surprise that they'd use conjecture about Trumps grandfather's death as a political weapon.
Read 26 tweets
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EVent Horizon
@evdefender
Think someone is lying to you?

First check to see if they bothered to add any variability whatsoever in the model they are using to supposedly report actual numbers from a complex system.

#coronavirus
The mortality rate they want you to report is the - 0 day rate: Today's Confirmed Death total minus Today's Confirmed Case total.

This has not varied outside of 1/10th of 1% in the last 5 prints.

#coronavirus
But even a minor adjustment of a few days in the mortality rate paints an entirely different picture

#coronavirus

Read 336 tweets
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Scotty McGuire
@McguireScotty
Wuhan, China:

WUHAN CITY COMMERCIAL CENTER CLOSED SECOND DAY

DESERTED STREETS DUE TO QUARANTINE

Wuhan epidemic situation updated daily: death toll rises to 41, many hospitals ask for help

#coronavirus

cn.nytimes.com/morning-brief/…
Times Chinese website translation:

During the Spring Festival, the Times Chinese website will publish a daily summary of the latest situation in Wuhan. The deadline for this article is 11 am on January 25.
Read 48 tweets

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