Thread by @ashkan

1/ Don't think people understand what will happen but it's more likely that I grow hair like Fabio than @airbnb IPO-ing any time soon.

businessinsider.com/covid-19-is-sh…

2/ So many listers have leveraged up & bought 2nd/3rd properties, running multiples listings in HIGH DENSITY areas that are super reliant on tourism, most of which are no-go zones now and for foreseeable future.

3/ So on DEMAND side, less people travel now but Airbnb is seeing a steeper decline in bookings than hotels, I think, because those who "have to" travel will be more comfortable in a hotel where minimum sanitary requirements are enforced, whereas Airbnb's are Russian Roulette.

4/ Then on SUPPLY side, I think a lot of Airbnb listers will have to a) rent to locals or b) sell some properties (that 2nd/3rd one) to meet mortgage payments.

So...

5/ Sure, one positive side effect is increase in supply in rentals for local residents. But, flooding market with sale listings will serve as double whammy.

As I say, things that SCALE quickly are NOT sustainable, and things that are sustainable don't scale overnight.

Finally:

6/ This is the latest failure of having these organizations set up and led by money-hungry, principle-poor VCs and PE firms that care little about ALL stakeholders. It was clear that these house of cards would face shocks. Airbnb will survive, but in different shape/size.

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