NYC need to cancel everything. Everyone needs to start social distancing now. If it feels too early, it's the right time. If we wait, it will be too late. #shutdownNYC #COVIDー19
NYC is the most densely populated urban area in the country. The first NY case was on March 2. Two weeks later, we have 613 confirmed cases. I plotted the number of current NY cases by day to see the trend. Data from @BNONews
An exponential growth equation provides the best fit for the data. 
Using Graphpad, I simulated data for the next 21 days using the equation from the current case data. This is what I got.
In this plot, things really start taking off in 8 or 9 days. Mind you, these projections are only from CONFIRMED cases, and do not account for undiagnosed cases, which may be 10-fold higher. In reality, it's going to jump sooner.
NY state has a total of ~53,000 beds, of which ~19,000 are unoccupied at the moment (NYS DOH). Assume 10% of cases are severe enough for hospitalization. We could be looking at 20,000 needing hospitalization in NY in under three weeks. We don't have enough beds.
In this scenario, it's clear that the healthcare system will be overwhelmed. We are looking at a tsunami coming on the horizon. Instead of continuing to play on the beach, we need to get to high ground.
China, Italy, and France have virtually shut down their countries. NY and the rest of the USA needs to act now and close most workplaces, schools, restaurants, movie theaters, bars, and stop all social gatherings large and small.
We can't just ease into this and hope for the best. We need drastic action now. Another myth is that this will be over in a couple of weeks. No, it will be just getting started. medium.com/@joschabach/fl… @Plinz
Here's another analysis showing that we are lagging behind other countries, and shows where we are heading. medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co… @tomaspueyo
Here is a similar analysis, but for the entire USA. Hat-tip: @baym
