I’ve been hesitant to post this thread.
But I’ve slowly come to the conclusion that we are significantly underestimating the likely impact of the corona virus—and what all of us should do RIGHT NOW to avoid a staggering number of preventable deaths.
[Thread.]
But I’ve slowly come to the conclusion that we are significantly underestimating the likely impact of the corona virus—and what all of us should do RIGHT NOW to avoid a staggering number of preventable deaths.
[Thread.]
First, the obvious disclaimer: I’m not ab expert in public health.
But I *am* trained in the study of public policy and political philosophy. And the most pressing questions now are moral: they are about what steps we should take in light of significant uncertainty.
But I *am* trained in the study of public policy and political philosophy. And the most pressing questions now are moral: they are about what steps we should take in light of significant uncertainty.
This thread has three parts:
1)How bad will things get?
2)What should institutions do about the virus?
3)What should YOU do?
1)How bad will things get?
2)What should institutions do about the virus?
3)What should YOU do?
1) How Bad Will Things Get?
It does not yet feel as though vast numbers of people have corona.
But this is due to a long incubation period and extremely poor testing rates.
In Italy, Corona grew exponentially. In America, it likely will as well.
We are only at the beginning.
It does not yet feel as though vast numbers of people have corona.
But this is due to a long incubation period and extremely poor testing rates.
In Italy, Corona grew exponentially. In America, it likely will as well.
We are only at the beginning.
If corona grows exponentially, hospitals will quickly be beyond capacity due to the large portion of patients requiring intensive care.
Less than a week ago, Lombardy's health ministersaid hospitals had the capacity to deal with patients; now, they are already beyond capacity.
Less than a week ago, Lombardy's health ministersaid hospitals had the capacity to deal with patients; now, they are already beyond capacity.
How many will die?
I still see a lot of people saying that corona will have a similar fatality rate as the flu.
This is nonsense twice over—false empirically and callous normatively.
I still see a lot of people saying that corona will have a similar fatality rate as the flu.
This is nonsense twice over—false empirically and callous normatively.
It is empirical nonsense because the case fatality rate so far is 3.4%.
Even if we are failing to capture many less severe cases of corona, and the recorded fatality rate falls to around 1%, as some experts estimate, that’s TEN TIMES HIGHER than the flu.
Even if we are failing to capture many less severe cases of corona, and the recorded fatality rate falls to around 1%, as some experts estimate, that’s TEN TIMES HIGHER than the flu.
(I still see a lot of people claiming the fatality rate will be lower in countries like the U.S. because it’s low in South Korea.
But patients tend to die many weeks after contracting the virus. So far, S.K. has far fewer deaths but also FAR fewer recovered patients than China.)
But patients tend to die many weeks after contracting the virus. So far, S.K. has far fewer deaths but also FAR fewer recovered patients than China.)
It's nonsense normatively because corona is causing ADDITIONAL deaths.
Not doing more to reduce deaths from flu is not a reason not to do more to reduce deaths from corona.
(It's also more feasible to reduce transmission of corona because it’s less contagious during incubation)
Not doing more to reduce deaths from flu is not a reason not to do more to reduce deaths from corona.
(It's also more feasible to reduce transmission of corona because it’s less contagious during incubation)
If you assume, relatively conservatively, that without serious containment measures 10% of the world population gets corona and 1% of them die, the number of deaths is astronomical.
(I’ll let you do the math yourself.)
This is not a drill.
(I’ll let you do the math yourself.)
This is not a drill.
2) What Should Institutions Do Right Now?
It’s natural for institutions to react to the problem at hand *today*.
But because of corona’s long incubation period and its potential for exponential growth, they need to react to the problems that are likely to arise *in two weeks*.
It’s natural for institutions to react to the problem at hand *today*.
But because of corona’s long incubation period and its potential for exponential growth, they need to react to the problems that are likely to arise *in two weeks*.
In the past, social distancing has had a huge impact on death tolls.
Just look at the difference between St. Louis, which canceled public events during the epidemic in 1918, and Philadelphia, which hosted a big parade.
Don’t be Philadelphia.
Be St. Louis.
(@florian_krammer)
Just look at the difference between St. Louis, which canceled public events during the epidemic in 1918, and Philadelphia, which hosted a big parade.
Don’t be Philadelphia.
Be St. Louis.
(@florian_krammer)
This means that the government needs to take urgent action TODAY to increase social distancing.
That means asking people to:
•Stay away from public places
•Cancel mass gatherings
•Restrict some forms of travel
That means asking people to:
•Stay away from public places
•Cancel mass gatherings
•Restrict some forms of travel
Of course, social distancing won’t be enough if sick people can’t get tested and treated. So the government should:
• Take on the cost for treatment and testing of corona
• Suspend deportations
• Expand capacity of ICUs
• Grant paid sick leave
• Take on the cost for treatment and testing of corona
• Suspend deportations
• Expand capacity of ICUs
• Grant paid sick leave
Sadly, the White House and the media echo chamber it has built still seem to be denying the severity of the crisis.
(This screenshot I took of Fox News’s website this morning barely shows any mention of corona.)
So people in authority should not wait for the government.
(This screenshot I took of Fox News’s website this morning barely shows any mention of corona.)
So people in authority should not wait for the government.
Are you the head of a sports team, the president of a university, or the organizer of a conference?
* Play your games without an audience.
* Hold classes online.
* Postpone your conference.
It might seem like a tough call today. It'll seem like the obvious one soon.
* Play your games without an audience.
* Hold classes online.
* Postpone your conference.
It might seem like a tough call today. It'll seem like the obvious one soon.
Are you running a political campaign?
Cancel all rallies today.
It will look weird for the next few days. People will ridicule or attack you.
But within a couple of weeks, voters will realize that it was the moral and prescient thing to do.
Cancel all rallies today.
It will look weird for the next few days. People will ridicule or attack you.
But within a couple of weeks, voters will realize that it was the moral and prescient thing to do.
3) What Can YOU Do?
It’s hard to change our own behavior while the administration and leaders of other important institutions send the social cue that we should go on as normal.
But since our leaders and institutions are failing, we must change our behavior anyway.
It’s hard to change our own behavior while the administration and leaders of other important institutions send the social cue that we should go on as normal.
But since our leaders and institutions are failing, we must change our behavior anyway.
What does this mean?
Yes, wash your hands, don’t touch your face, etc.
But, if you can, do more: Avoid public transport. Don't go to big gatherings. Stay home for a while.
And most importantly: DO NOT, FOR THE LOVE OF EVERYONE’S GRANDMA, GO TO WORK OR SCHOOL IF YOU ARE SICK.
Yes, wash your hands, don’t touch your face, etc.
But, if you can, do more: Avoid public transport. Don't go to big gatherings. Stay home for a while.
And most importantly: DO NOT, FOR THE LOVE OF EVERYONE’S GRANDMA, GO TO WORK OR SCHOOL IF YOU ARE SICK.
Look, it’s perfectly possible that this thread will, with hindsight, seem like an overreaction.
If we all do the right thing, corona might yet pass without mass casualties.
Like Y2K, it’ll become a punchline. (Let's hope it will!)
But...
If we all do the right thing, corona might yet pass without mass casualties.
Like Y2K, it’ll become a punchline. (Let's hope it will!)
But...
...consider two points:
• Y2K passed without a hitch in part because we invested vast resources into preventing problems.
• It’s rational to invest in avoiding the tail-end risk of a catastrophic outcome even if it pretty—or very!—likely that it'll never come to pass.
• Y2K passed without a hitch in part because we invested vast resources into preventing problems.
• It’s rational to invest in avoiding the tail-end risk of a catastrophic outcome even if it pretty—or very!—likely that it'll never come to pass.
Facts give us necessary information. But how we should respond to those facts is a moral question.
The costs of social distancing—of canceling valuable events and perhaps of crashing the economy—are very high.
But given the risks involved, I believe they are justified.
[End]
The costs of social distancing—of canceling valuable events and perhaps of crashing the economy—are very high.
But given the risks involved, I believe they are justified.
[End]
Right on cue.
Italy today, America tomorrow.
Italy today, America tomorrow.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like t...
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like the flu.
Corona is not like t...
And this smart yet simple analysis suggests that, unless Germany takes rapid measures to increase social distancing, it will very soon face a crisis of the same proportion as Italy.
Where Stanford and Columbia lead, the rest will not lag far behind.
Some universities may continue to hold classes until spring break. After that, I doubt that there will be many in-person classes until the end of the semester.
Some universities may continue to hold classes until spring break. After that, I doubt that there will be many in-person classes until the end of the semester.
This thread shows that corona's exponential growth is not inevitable. But like the position it criticizes, it elides political agency.
If we don't do anything, corona's growth could be exponential.
If we start social distancing NOW, we can limit it.
If we don't do anything, corona's growth could be exponential.
If we start social distancing NOW, we can limit it.
Rory's right.
This chart has good and terrible news.
The good news: The higher rate of testing in South Korea helps to explain Italy's scary case fatality rate; a lot of mild cases may be undetected.
The terrible news: Clearly, we have no idea of the real magnitude we're facing in America.
The good news: The higher rate of testing in South Korea helps to explain Italy's scary case fatality rate; a lot of mild cases may be undetected.
The terrible news: Clearly, we have no idea of the real magnitude we're facing in America.
