@fascinatorfun @alexwickham It appears the Chinese are well on their way to putting the genie back in the bottle, *without* letting 60% of their people get infected / 0.6% die. SK too. So it can be done. The downside: it absolutely batters the economy for 3 months.
But the British had to be clever...
But the British had to be clever...
@fascinatorfun @alexwickham We dreamt up a novel strategy of "controlled herd immunity, with cocooning of vulnerable groups", but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny at all:
1. It has not been tried before; who gambles on an experimental solution with 67M people at stake? (I know: brexiters)...
1. It has not been tried before; who gambles on an experimental solution with 67M people at stake? (I know: brexiters)...
@fascinatorfun @alexwickham 2. Even if the vulnerable could be successfully cocooned, 250K less-vulnerable people would die (as per Imperial College) instead of <10K as per China & SK.
3. It relies on infection providing immunity from re-infection. We don't even know that yet, or how long immunity lasts.
3. It relies on infection providing immunity from re-infection. We don't even know that yet, or how long immunity lasts.
@fascinatorfun @alexwickham 4. It creates 40M petri dishes for the virus to mutate within. And this is an RNA virus and they mutate 100x as fast as DNA viruses. One mutation might be as deadly as Ebola and as infectious as Smallpox.
@fascinatorfun @alexwickham 5. It was justified by the "2nd wave" of influenza epidemics, but we don't know if it behaves like influenza.
6. There is no way in the real world that the over-65s *could* be successfully cocooned.
Overall it is like something a fantasist might dream up - like Brexit.
6. There is no way in the real world that the over-65s *could* be successfully cocooned.
Overall it is like something a fantasist might dream up - like Brexit.
