I am calling bullshit on this "60% to achieve herd immunity". How does the virus know *which* 40% not to attack?
I get the maths (Kermack and McKendrick ) of a balance point where a certain number of kids get infected each year and a disease just becomes endemic.
cont...
I get the maths (Kermack and McKendrick ) of a balance point where a certain number of kids get infected each year and a disease just becomes endemic.
cont...
... but it looks to me like some genius (Cummings?) has said "Eureka! Over-65s are 20% of the population; we just make the over-65s all part of the 40% who remain uninfected in a Kermack McKendrick stationary solution and everything's fine". Which is beyond stupid.
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...How does the virus know not to infect that *particular* 20%? If it is down to "cocooning" the elderly, then they aren't part of the population, they become a separate, virgin-field population. Primed.
This whole strategy bears many of the characteristics of brexit-think.
This whole strategy bears many of the characteristics of brexit-think.
The Brexiters would take some principle of economics - lowering tariff barriers say - take it out of context, misunderstand the maths, ignore the Nobel prize-winning economists who disagree, then bet the whole country on a bullshit theory without once testing if it's true.
In short, the plan reeks of Gove and Cummings. In a kinder society that pair wouldn't be allowed out without a carer; in saner one they wouldn't be left in charge of cake stall.
