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Yesterday's tonal change in both US and UK was the result of many factors, but one is clearly the release of the Imperial College Report. It is sobering and I offer it only because it helps explain how we got here so fast. 1/ #coronavirus (@j_g_allen has summary and FB post here)
For those of us who consume such assessments and plan or offer advice around them, there isn't much more to say than realism is better than not. The Report was shared with the WH this weekend. Here's @maggieNYT story on it. 2/

nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/…
Yesterday was an important day as WH accepted what Governors and mayors already knew: the virus can no longer be contained, it can only be managed. That's what we are all doing. This helps explain the tonal change. Read here. Onward. 3/3

imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
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Juliette Kayyem
@juliettekayyem
Thread on Logistics. The Quid pro quo for us sheltering in place is that US surges resources to states based on need to flatten curve. It is why the #DefenseProductionAct is necessary, and the failure to strategically organize logistics is deadly for states. 1/ #surge
I sound like a broken record, but this is the easy part. It's not frontline stuff, saving a life, or science stuff like finding a vaccine. It's moving or manufacturing stuff from point A and getting it to point B. It's logistics. We know how to do this. We have laws to help. 2/
Today, FEMA director said he didn't know how many masks were available or being delivered. It's basic inventory stuff; should have been figured out weeks ago. Then, you determine where there are gaps and compel companies to make them. Again, simple.
3/
Read 8 tweets
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Juliette Kayyem
@juliettekayyem
I've been urging invocation of the Defense Production Act for some time; explanations below. How a president could not invoke it to compel/compensate production is remarkable. We know what we need and we don't have enough, not even in strategic stockpile. 1/
#coronavirus
The Defense Production Act is a tool a president has, among many, to respond to the #coronavirus and can be used for domestic crises. He can compel contracts on manufacturers or set priorities. We know none of this is being done.



2/
The President said today they are studying it. The problem is that production doesn't turn on a dime. At best, we have a few weeks until peak. This should have been done in January.



3/
Read 5 tweets
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Juliette Kayyem
@juliettekayyem
WHEN DOES IT END? Thread on the question I raised @ReliableSources -- and the one too many are asking me now in light of new @cdc guidelines lasting 8 weeks. A bit of a shocker, yes; a strong WH comms strategy would have been preparing us. So, let me try to answer. 1/
I am not a therapist and you wouldn't want me to be. All I can do is honestly tell you how this unfolds as someone in this space on the crisis response side and who has spent a lot of time working with Govs, mayors and CEOs this week. I think you can handle it. 2/
The measure of success now isn't that we will contain the virus. It is here. It is that on the other side fewer will be dead or severely harmed by Coronavirus. We measure success that way. 100,000 dead is good if we anticipated 1,000,000 (I can sound harsh, I'm not). 3/
Read 10 tweets

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scott cunningham
@causalinf
Here is the model I have in my mind. I am thinking of how Weitzman talked about planetary catastrophe from climate change and what he called “fat tail risk”. The uncertainty in the far right tail lead to deeper and deeper catastrophe and we fundamentally don’t know what it is. 1n
Basically, take this highly stylized story. The coronavirus grows at some daily growth rate leading to it doubling over some short period like every 3-5 days. What I understand is the mortality risk is increasing in age turning sharply at 60. 2/n
Now take the imperial college report. We can’t contain it, but if we do basically five combined things like case isolation, house quarantining, social distancing, shutting schools and universities and workplaces, then in their simulation you can drop the growth 3/n
Read 27 tweets
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Prepfootballstars
@Prepfootbal
We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it ⚠️ I will be using a summary from someone else to explain in this thread.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
Note 📝 my background and degree is in computer science and applied math. I just happed to coach Ball. So the model above in the link is very easy for me to understand. I will use a summary below made by Jeremy Young. He does a great job of explaining this in layman’s terms
The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?
Read 22 tweets
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Jeremy C. Young
@jeremycyoung
We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.
imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
Read 23 tweets
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Gabriel Vanca
@GabrielVanca
Imperial College report: "There is no easy policy choice. [The alternative to the govt's plan] carries enormous social and economic costs which may have significant impact on health...and mortality might still be high."

The media: The govt got its whole plan totally wrong.
Imperial College report: "[The govt's strategy] might reduce peak healthcare demand by two thirds and deaths by 50%.]"

The media: The Government is not taking any action.
Imperial College report: "[The alternative to the govt's plan] will take 18 months or more. It might not protect those in the risk categories. Social and economic costs will be enormous."

The media: The govt got its strategy fundamentally wrong.
Read 18 tweets
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Thomas Cole
@ThomasHCole
NEW: The UK publishes its approach to negotiating the future #UK - #EU relationship gov.uk/government/pub… UK already saying that it wants a "Canada", "Korea" or "Japan" style relationship and wants to be seen as a "sovereign equal". None of this likely to fly anywhere...
Here is the document itself with some key bits highlighted (thread) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Point 5: "relationship between sovereign equals" is - although UK Gov entitled to say this - delusional. #UK much smaller than #EU and more exposed to EU economically than vice-versa. Sovereignty argument coming through strongly here.
Read 24 tweets

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