Thread by @ThomasHCole

NEW: The UK publishes its approach to negotiating the future #UK - #EU relationship gov.uk/government/pub… UK already saying that it wants a "Canada", "Korea" or "Japan" style relationship and wants to be seen as a "sovereign equal". None of this likely to fly anywhere...

Here is the document itself with some key bits highlighted (thread) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Point 5: "relationship between sovereign equals" is - although UK Gov entitled to say this - delusional. #UK much smaller than #EU and more exposed to EU economically than vice-versa. Sovereignty argument coming through strongly here.

Point 9 also key and underlining previous #UK positions: no extension of transition and if no agreement reached by high-level summit in June then UK essentially say that they would be prepared to walk away. Big statement and question is: Is UK Gov prepared to absorb #nodeal?

But: It is not realistic to get a meaningful deal in a period of just 3-4 months. #WTO terms would be both bad for the #UK as well as the #EU so if UK CANNOT get the off-the-shelf deal they are looking for, #Nodeal becomes a real possibility

#UK Government intends to take views on the economic impact of the future #UK - #EU relationship...BUT: if no relationship in place until deal actually negotiated, how is this possible? However, economic forecasting by #UK Gov shows all forms of #Brexit bad for the UK

However, #UK Gov, despite wanting zero tariffs, zero quotas and having agreed in principle to commitments in the #politicaldeclaration is in a difficult position now because it wants its cake and wants to eat it:

As regards sanitary and phyto-sanitary rules, the UK's approach will mean, with the #UK essentially wishing for regulatory autonomy in this area, which would mean checks on #UK-#EU trade if EU were to deem UK standards as not being sufficient

In fact, the UK is asking for "equivalence" in this area - #EU is asking for #UK to adhere to #EU standards (point 24)

When it comes to financial services, despite @michaelgove stating that the UK is looking for an "equivalence" regime with the EU, there is no mention of this on the chapter of financial services

@michaelgove When it comes to subsidies, the #UK Government states (article 64) that it will have its own regime: This is diametrically opposed to #EU demands that the UK adheres to EU #stateaid rules

@michaelgove This is also the case when it comes to Labour standards, where UK looking to set its own standards. On this point, whilst #UK Government is wanting to diverge, it is not entirely clear yet in what areas or why...

@michaelgove The sovereignty argument is also applied when it comes to environmental standards, again in opposition to the #EU's position of using EU standards as a benchmark

@michaelgove when it comes to #fisheries the #UK is essentially looking for the kind of agreements which Norway + Iceland have with the EU, negotiating annual quotas. The #EU position, de facto, is that the two sides should continue with relationship as per today.

@michaelgove When it comes to student exchanges, the #UK Government states that it will "consider participation" - bad news for students around the UK who might have been tempted to study abroad for a year in the EU

@michaelgove when it comes to law enforcement measures and judicial and criminal co-operation, the #UK is essentially asking for the same as #EU membership but without the role of the #ECJ - will be problematic

@michaelgove The #UK is not seeking membership of @Europol - this will make fighting cross-border crime harder and the #UK Government is enabling this through its own negotiating position

@michaelgove @Europol The same goes for @Eurojust as well as the #EuropeanArrestWarrant - no #UK membership. This will be problematic for the UK and WILL make fighting crime harder

@michaelgove @Europol @Eurojust when it comes to Data, the #UK Government is being hypocritical when it comes to the issue of sovereignty. Acknowledging the #Brussels effect when it comes to regulation, the Government is seeking "adequacy" from the EU. Who decides on this? Not the UK but the EU!!

@michaelgove @Europol @Eurojust Correction from earlier point on #financialservices, the UK WILL be seeking "equivalence" provision when it comes to #financialservices - but "equivalence" can be taken away at any time with a 30 day grace period - bad for financial stability

@michaelgove @Europol @Eurojust SUMMARY: #UK Government, in wanting to get the kind of agreement in wants is applying mixed standards when it comes to #sovereignty (when #Brexit argument). On the one hand, no participation in Europol, Eurojust, EAW, autonomy on labour, environmental standards BUT...

...when it comes to things like data and financial services, there is a clear realisation that the UK needs the EU to greenlight decisions in order for UK to achieve its aims (Equivalence and adequacy) and that goes against sovereignty as EU would be deciding...

As things stand, highly unlikely that the two sides would be able to get an agreement wrapped up by 30 June and by deadline for extension of transition...negotiations will start next week but, to recall, #Nodeal would be bad for BOTH sides (but much worse for UK)

So, to follow-on from this, if a deal CANNOT be reached, both #EU and #UK have to ask themselves question if they would be willing to absorb #nodeal shock - huge economic, social and political fall-out would ensue. All points towards political crisis later this year. /ENDS